eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

September 25, 2013

diam2suka: emAAA(RO(h)UB(houd)INI)aa$ :250913

Filed under: EMAS or GOLD...ce'ileh... — bumi2009fans @ 1:30 am
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Roubini bearish on gold, but optimistic about U.S. and Japanese stocks
September 23, 2013, 3:01 PM
Prominent economist Nouriel Roubini, who is known as “Dr. Doom,” on Monday offered a negative take on gold and certain emerging markets, along with kind words for U.S. and Japanese stocks and the dollar.

“Why are we bearish on gold? Several reasons,” he said while delivering the keynote address at IndexUniverse’s Inside Commodities Conference in New York.

Roubini said tail risks for the global economy have declined and that’s hurt demand for the metal often seen as a safe haven. In addition, gold will be pressured by a strengthening dollar and real interests rates going higher, said the economist, who is known for his generally gloomy views.

In response to a question on areas where he’s more optimistic, Roubini suggested overweighting equities vs. bonds, and within equities, focusing on advanced economies rather than emerging markets — in particular U.S. and Japanese equities rather than European or U.K. stocks.

Roubini was gloomy on commodities in general, saying the “commodity supercycle” is likely over.

“Most commodity prices over the next couple of years are going to be lower rather than higher,” he said. Roubini cited Chinese growth slowing and becoming less resource-intensive, plus the Federal Reserve starting to wind down its stimulus measures. As he did with gold in particular, he also cited higher interest rates and a strengthening dollar, adding that “dollar doomsday folks” are wrong. The U.S. has advantages over other developed nations with its demographics and technology, he said.

Another area to be gloomy? Certain emerging markets with current account deficits and other challenges. Roubini said he’s concerned about nations such as


, India, Brazil, Turkey and the Ukraine.

“We remain cautious about these emerging markets that are very fragile in many ways,” he said, calling a recovery in the last few sessions just a “temporary rally.”

Some listeners seemed to have expected more gloom and doom overall from the well-known economist. “That was surprisingly upbeat,” said Dave Nadig, president of ETF Analytics at IndexUniverse, in comments to the audience after Roubini’s speech.

–Victor Reklaitis


September 19, 2013

diam2suka: KOLEKSI SAHAM gw saat KRISIS MINI : 190913

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 2:30 am

… baca sendiri ya : double digit potential gain % pada koleksi saham per midday 19 September 2013

diam2suka: emAAA($1400?)aa$ … 190913

Filed under: EMAS or GOLD...ce'ileh... — bumi2009fans @ 12:12 am
Tags: ,

Pembatasan stimulus ditunda, harga emas melonjak
Oleh Asnil Bambani Amri – Kamis, 19 September 2013 | 06:30 WIB


NEW YORK. Harga emas melonjak ke posisi tertinggi dalam 15 bulan, setelah Federal Reserve menahan diri untuk mengurangi pembelian obligasi bulanan di Amerika Serikat (AS). Sikap tersebut disusul dengan naiknya harga emas sebagai lindung nilai.
The Federal Open Market Committee menyatakan, pihaknya membutuhkan lebih banyak bukti pertumbuhan ekonomi di AS agar pembelian stimulus bisa dikurangi. Sebelumnya, emas spot menyentuh posisi terendah dalam sepekan dan turun ke bawah harga US$ 1.300 per ounce.
“Kami melihat sentimen emas bullish kembali,” kata Michael Gayed, kepala strategi investasi Pension Partners LLC di New York. Harga emas berjangka naik 4,1% dan menetap di harga US$ 1.364,02 pada waktu 16:59 waktu New York. Ini merupakan kenaikan terbesar sejak 1 Juni 2012.
Sebelumnya, harga turun 1,4% menjadi US$ 1.292,02, harga terendah sejak Agustus 8. Di Comex New York, harga emas pengiriman Desember naik 4,5% menjadi US$ 1.367,80. Sebelum pengumuman Fed, harga emas ditutup 0,1 % lebih rendah di posisi US$ 1.307,60 .
Tahun ini, harga spot emas turun 19% karena beberapa investor kehilangan kepercayaan terhadap logam.

diam2suka: kapAAAAAAAAn … 190913

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 12:02 am

September 18, 2013, 7:40 p.m. ET
Stock Investors Are Left Wondering When on Fed’s Taper
Stocks Welcomed the Fed Sticking to Its Policy, but Big Questions Remain

One of the oldest clichés on Wall Street is that financial markets hate uncertainty and confusion.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve gave the markets uncertainty and confusion about plans to wind down its bond-buying program, and markets loved it, sending U.S. stock indexes to records.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 147.21 points, or 0.9%, to 15676.94, a closing high. Bond prices notched their strongest gain since November 2011. Commodity prices jumped, and foreign stocks benefited even more than U.S. shares.

The celebration was for the short term, based on the Fed’s decision to surprise investors with the news it wouldn’t begin reducing its bond-buying program this month after all.

Michelle Girard, RBS managing director and chief U.S. economist, joins the News Hub to gauge market reaction to the Federal Reserve’s move to keep its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program in place.

But, in the longer term, money managers could turn surly again. If Fed officials are right in their decision to reduce forecasts for U.S. economic growth, some investors fear that could presage disappointments in third-quarter corporate profit reports, which are due out next month. That would be less positive for stocks.

And, more generally, analysts still expect the Fed to begin reducing stimulus at some point this year. That means that, as the next Fed policy meeting scheduled for Oct. 29-30 draws nearer, stocks could sink amid the same uncertainty and confusion that sent markets into a funk in August.

“In the longer term, the Fed is going to be less supportive” of financial markets, said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at asset-management firm BlackRock Inc., which oversees about $3.9 trillion. “Strength will have to come from earnings growth.”

He and several other money managers said they are either moving some money into emerging-market stocks or, in accounts where clients make the final decisions, advising them to do so.

Markets generally trade on very short-term expectations, and the continuation of the Fed policy without any change is good short-term news for two reasons. First, it means stronger support than had been expected for the economy, which can’t hurt economic growth. Second, the stimulus itself is carried out in a way that funnels extra cash directly into markets, which, for simple mechanical reasons, tends to support stock and bond prices.

The Fed provides the stimulus by buying $85 billion a month worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, mainly from major banks. It is nearly impossible for the banks to use all that money for loans to businesses and individuals. With safe investments offering low returns, much of the money finds its way into the riskier stocks and bonds that investors think will get the best short-term pop.

Since the Fed uses the money to buy bonds, it would seem logical to expect bonds to get the greatest benefit. But because investors typically channel the liquidity into riskier, faster-rising investments, and because they still think the Fed will cut back on its bond purchases later in the year, analysts don’t expect bonds to benefit as much as stocks. Sooner or later, they think, investors will move away from Treasury bonds again, pushing bond prices lower and yields higher in anticipation of a cutback in Fed bond buying.

While short-term traders love the liquidity, some investors more focused on the longer term weren’t pleased. They worry that U.S. stocks in particular are becoming overpriced and too dependent on government support. When the Fed begins withdrawing that support, they say, the market reaction could be more negative than if the Fed had begun the process this month.

“U.S. stocks are trading based on stimulus and not on fundamental value,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank, which oversees $66 billion in Chicago. “I was hoping that we would slowly get a transition from the liquidity backstop and toward a more tangible source of support, like corporate earnings or revenues.”

Mr. Ablin also said he fears the Fed is delaying action because it expects economic growth and corporate earnings could be disappointing in the months to come. He is thinking about moving some of his clients’ money into European and developing-country stocks.

“It is sort of disturbing to me as to why they chose to wait. Is the economy so fragile that it can’t sustain itself without life support?” he asked.

The Fed nudged down its 2013 and 2014 U.S. growth forecasts Wednesday.

Mr. Ablin noted that $45 billion of the monthly $85 billion in Fed bond purchases goes into Treasury bonds, meaning Fed purchases are financing most, if not all, of the federal budget deficit. He considers that unsustainable.

That kind of fretting was overshadowed Wednesday by optimism that the Fed’s continuing support will help the economy get through any rough patch that lies ahead.

“All in all, I guess it is fairly good,” said Janna Sampson, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments, which manages $3.5 billion in Lisle, Ill.

Some investors also are reassured at the prospect that Lawrence Summers, a former senior adviser to Presidents Obama and Clinton, has withdrawn from consideration as a successor to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Mr. Summers was viewed as less supportive of the stimulus program than Janet Yellen, vice chairwoman of the Fed’s Board of Governors, who now is considered the strong favorite to succeed Mr. Bernanke when his term ends Jan. 31.

Many investors are hoping Ms. Yellen will go more slowly in ending stimulus than Mr. Summers might have, which means more short-term liquidity for the stock market.

The big question is what investors will do ahead of the Fed’s two remaining meetings this year, at the end of October and on Dec. 17 and 18. As the meetings approach, investors will again start debating how soon the Fed will cut stimulus.

Optimists think the Fed’s decision to delay any cutback this month will sow hope that it won’t act until the economy really is ready to absorb the blow. That would promote market stability. But pessimists worry that the Fed’s willingness to surprise investors will make investors even more nervous as future meetings approach. If so, markets could return to volatility like that seen earlier in the summer.

“They are going to have to do it at some point, and there is going to be pain when they do it,” said Ms. Sampson. Interest rates are likely to rise whenever investors anticipate a stimulus cutback, and higher rates are bad both for stocks and for bonds, at least in the short term.

Some investors worry that the uncertainty itself eventually will weigh on stocks.

Doug Cote, chief investment strategist for ING U.S. Investment Management, said this month’s surprise decision not to begin trimming stimulus has weakened the central bank’s credibility. “The Federal Reserve cannot lead the market to a decision and completely not do what [Mr. Bernanke] said he was going to do,” Mr. Cote said. “I am perplexed and baffled,” he said. “I do this for a living. I shouldn’t be so confused and confounded.”

—Victoria McGrane contributed to this article.

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