eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Januari 14, 2009

yolanda: the best teacher = own experiences

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 10:40 am

investopedia.com
Has Your Fund Manager Been Through A Bear Market?
by Michael Weiss,CFA

Securities indexes in the U.S. and in many countries around the world are on course to record their fifth consecutive year of positive gains in 2007. These gains come on the heels of the dreadful equity returns experienced during the dotcom bust from 2000 through 2002. You should try to enjoy gains while you can, keep in mind that bull markets do not last indefinitely. Therefore, if you are looking to add a mutual fund to your portfolio, it will be harder to find a manager with experience in a down market.

The Shrinking Supply of Fund Managers
History shows that the most successful fund managers are those who perform well in down markets as well as in up markets, but although there are many fund managers with terrific three- and five-year performance records, many have insufficient experience during market corrections. In a report to shareholders in 2003, David J. Winters, CFA, the former Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Mutual Advisers, stated: “At Mutual Series, we believe that successful investing is as much about avoiding risk and containing losses, thereby protecting shareholder capital, as it is about achieving profits.”

Unfortunately, not all funds have managers with real-world experience in how to do this. This is compounded by the fact that not all investment strategies experience bear-market performances at the same time or in the same magnitude. For example, funds investing in large U.S. companies experienced a major downturn from 2000 through 2002, the worst correction since the 1974 to 1975 period, which almost destroyed the mutual fund industry. (To learn more about fund managers, read Why Fund Managers Risk Too Much and Should You Follow Your Fund Manager?)

The Quest for a Large Cap Fund Manager
According to Morningstar, there were 5,579 domestic large cap mutual funds in 2007, some with excellent returns over the past three and five years. However, within this universe, only 1,356 of the funds have managers with experience going back as far as the beginning of the year 2000 – that cuts out almost 76% of the original universe of available funds. These 1,356 funds sound like a lot, but if you were to narrow the universe down to, say, no-load mutual funds with reasonable minimum investments that are available to the average investor, then the list would shrink down to about 150.

Small Cap Fund Managers are Even Harder to Find
To examine the small cap universe, we need to extend the time period back to 1998, which was the last period of poor relative performance for small cap stocks. According to Morningstar Research, there were 2,011 domestic small cap funds in 2007, some with superb performance records over the past three and five years, especially compared to large cap funds. However, within this universe, there are only 260 funds that have managers with experience that dates back to 1998 – eliminating 87% of this universe. Of course, if we were to refine the small cap universe to no-load mutual funds with reasonable minimum investments that are available to the average investor, the universe would shrink to about 40 funds, leaving you with very little choice.

The Search for a High-Yield Fund Manager
Some fixed-income categories have also experienced very good fortune over the past several years, making it increasingly difficult to find a manager with experience in choppy waters. For example, high-yield funds experienced a difficult period in 2002, when some of the telecommunications companies like WorldCom defaulted on their debt. In 2007, there are 575 high-yield funds, commonly referred to as junk bond funds, compared to only about 230 after narrowing the universe to managers that endured the 2002 debacle. Further, this universe is substantially reduced to about 15 when excluding load funds and other funds that most investors cannot purchase. (To read more high-yield funds, see Junk Bonds: Everything You Need to Know, Common Mistakes By Fixed-Income Investors and High Yield, Or Just High Risk?)

The Shortage Extends to International Funds
The shortage of managers extends to international mutual funds as well. International markets also last tumbled dramatically during the 2000 to 2002 period. Currently, there are 1,318 large cap diversified international funds versus 263 funds with a manager steering his or her ship since 2000. That reduces the list by about 80%! Further, if you were to narrow the criteria to include only no-load mutual funds that are generally available to the average investor, your list would shrink to only about 20 funds.

The significant reduction in international funds with managers who have experienced a bear market is partly related to the recent growth in the number of funds in international investment categories. International markets have soared over the past several years, which has led to fund companies launching more international funds.
What are your other options?
Ideally, you would want to find and invest with a manager that has successfully guided his or her fund through downturns in the market. If this search yields no results to your liking, you have a few options:

* First, you could invest with a manager who has steered another fund at his or her current company through a down market. This might be a reasonable alternative if the fund company employs a team approach, thereby making portfolio managers more interchangeable.
* Second, you could invest with a manager with bear market experience at another firm. Be careful if you choose this option because fund managers do not always bring their resources with them to a new company. A different environment with a new research staff may result in a very different performance record.
* Finally, if you still cannot find a suitable fund, you could simply hire the manager with the best overall investment background.

Other Factors to Consider
Bear market experience is not the only factor to consider when investing in a mutual fund. You should of course evaluate how the manager performs in a strong market. Be careful here because sometimes unusually positive returns can indicate that the fund is much more aggressive than it peers and may not provide much downside protection.
After you have evaluated performance, both good and bad, you should consider a portfolio manager’s academic experience and other qualifications. Today, fund companies tend to be very selective when it comes to hiring portfolio managers. If many of the major fund companies value strong academic credentials, they should also be important to you. Besides, you do not necessarily have to pay more for a fund manager with a strong academic background.

Similarly, many fund companies often require that managers be CFA charterholders. The CFA program is very comprehensive and is generally considered to be the gold standard for investment professionals. Again, if mutual fund companies value the CFA designation, it makes sense that it should also be important to anyone who is searching for a fund to add to a portfolio.

Another factor you may want to consider before making a new investment is whether a portfolio manager invests in his or her own fund. This information, however, is not always easy to obtain, but sometimes can be found in a fund’s statement of additional information. This is not an exact science, but it can be reassuring to know that your manager’s interests are in line with yours.

Wrapping It Up
Finding a fund manager with experience in a bear market is likely to continue to be a challenge as long as a streak of good mutual fund returns continues. This is not to say that it is impossible to find a manager capable of weathering the next downturn, but that mutual fund investors will have to work harder to find experienced managers. There are other alternatives, but none as comforting as investing with a fund manager who has successfully managed a product in both good and bad times.

Januari 8, 2009

lAGI lAGI janjI: positif di samudera negatif

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 2:43 pm

Why Forester Finished First
by Brett Arends
Wednesday, January 7, 2009

yf
Associated Press

Tom Forester

The only American mutual fund manager to end 2008 in the black says he did it by watching the downside.

The question of the hour isn’t how Tom Forester, an obscure mutual fund manager in Chicago, was able to make a profit for investors during the meltdown of 2008.

It’s why nobody else did.

Fund analyst Morningstar tracks about 2,800 mutual funds, managing $2.3 trillion in savings, in the mainstream “Diversified U.S. Equity” category.

The firms running these funds have access to unparalleled “talent” and resources, plus billions of dollars a year in fees.

Yet Mr. Forester was the only one to end 2008 in the black — even if just by 0.4%.

“Most mutual funds have the ability to do what I did,” Mr. Forester told me on Monday. “It’s just that nobody does it. Somebody ought to be watching the downside once in a while.”

He’s right. Let it be said that 2008 was the year America’s fund management industry was tested and found lacking. The typical mutual fund, as we know it, is a failure.

Most sock the customers with high fees. During the good years they do worse than a simple, low-cost index fund. Over time, studies show, about 80% actually under-perform the index.

The managers’ justification? That they would manage risk, and provide some shelter in a financial storm.

In 2008, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index fund fell about 38%.

Active managers? On average they lost 39%, says Morningstar.

Large cap, small cap, growth, value, “blend” — all styles flopped. So much for that.

Only a few big funds provided any noticeable shelter at all.

Let me include here a mea culpa. I don’t trust anyone until I have heard them utter the phrases “I don’t know” and “I was wrong,” and this is my moment to say both. I’ve long been deeply skeptical of the fund industry, but even I never expected to see them all flop so badly. I have been astonished at the failure of so many to manage risk, and especially at the failure of so many managers with great reputations.

No, you can’t write off an individual manager for a bad year. And 2008 was exceptional in many ways.

But for the industry overall: It underperformed for decades – then failed to manage risk just when that was needed.

It’s no accident that Mr. Forester, the one manager to succeed, happened to be free of the shackles that tie most mutual fund managers down.

He held up to 30% of his fund in cash when he couldn’t find enough good bargains. Most mutual fund managers have to be fully invested, all the time.

“Quite frankly,” he says, “the consultants and the (financial) advisers don’t like to see anybody who’s not 100% in the market all the time.” Advisers tell fund managers, he adds, “we don’t need you to manage cash for us, we can do it. But they don’t do it.”

Mr. Forester was free to “time” the market which simply means he was able to sell when things were getting too expensive for his tastes, and to buy when they got cheaper. He now says he is fully invested. He was also free to ignore market “benchmarks.” That meant, for example, he could avoid holding financial stocks. So he did.

…. lagi2 cara contrarian juga yang dipake, kemahalan: jual, kemurahan: beli … apa lagi sih metodenya?

Mr. Forester owns his own fund firm. So he wasn’t prone to the law of large organizations, which tend towards mediocrity. And he wasn’t answering to quarterly performance reviews or the marketing department. He didn’t have to worry about “under-performing” other funds through part of the cycle.

Result? He stayed ultra conservative through the boom of 2005-2007, and was content to lag the rest of the market...for a while. Over five years the S&P 500 has lost about 19%, while Mr. Forester has actually gained 11%.

Oh, and he runs a tiny fund of about $60 million. So he stayed nimble.

The real questions about 2008 aren’t about Tom Forester. They’re about most of the other 2,800.

Write to Brett Arends at brett.arends@wsj.com

Desember 28, 2008

putus nyambung: buka2an, tapi buka otak doang…

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 11:30 pm

http://www.kontan.co.id/index.php/Pemula… itu link untuk calon investor untuk mulai membuka wawasan … trus bole juga liat2 ke ekonomi tak serius bagian investasi reksa dana di indonesia 2008 … buka wawasan dulu, baru buka dompet … jangan sebaliknya

Desember 15, 2008

kok gitu sih: orang selalu bertanya, gimana gw kini?

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 4:05 am

ya … biasa aja tuh … business as usual … yang udah pasti, bokin masih punya penghasilan tetap … anak gw sekolah di oz masih belajar dan maen (hobi) seperti biasa … ntar lagi mau gw jenguk … lalu soal investasi gimana? masih jauh dari bangkrut sih …
coba gw bandingkan dengan kisah2 yang gw dengar dari orang2 lain:
– ada yang tadinya naek sedan Accord, lalu dijual, dan saat saham ambrol, sekarang naek toyota kijang kapsul
– ada yang terkena serangan stroke dan koma, karena 3 M dananya nyangkut di bursa saham indonesia
– ada yang mendiamkan saja, ga punya daya pikir lagi untuk menentukan strategi dan taktik investasinya
– ada yang cuma bisa marah besar, dan ngomel2 menyalahkan orang2 yang membujuknya untuk ikutan bermain saham, apalagi saham di luar negeri, termasuk di shanghai
– ada yang putus asa dan bohwat, ga mau lagi berinvestasi di produk2 yang terkait bursa saham
– ada yang marah2 menyalahkan orang2 optimistis realistis model gw, tentu saja lewat e-mail, karena seakan2 gw menganjurkan mereka masuk lagi saat reksa dana saham sedang terpuruk

– tapi ada juga yang memasang iklan di radio bisnis jakarta bahwa imbal hasil strategi option mereka adalah RATUSAN PERSEN … well, gw mah cuma dapat paling banter 30% dalam beberapa minggu

kesimpulan: pegangan utama gw adalah diversifikasi, dan long term view … diversifikasi, mulai dari investasi aman s/d berisiko tinggi (termasuk reksa dana berbasis saham) … long term view artinya gw memanfaatkan dana2 nganggur dan belum dibutuhkan pada saat ini, gaya hidup gw cukup nyaman dan cukup hemat, tidak terlalu bernafsu tinggi untuk mengejar keuntungan ribuan persen dalam waktu 1-2 taon (seperti yang terjadi pada beberapa saham berkapitalisasi besar, contoh bumi, antm, tins, aali, lsip); ada saatnya gw akan membutuhkan dana cukup besar untuk memenuhi kebutuhan gw, saat itu gw gak akan ragu2 meredeem reksa dana saham atau lain2nya sekaligus profit taking dan persiapan dana untuk masuk kembali/re-subscribe
supaya ga terlalu ketinggalan peluang, gw juga memanfaatkan beberapa puluh jt untuk maen pendek (short-term) dan hasilnya gw harapkan bisa memperbaiki imbal hasil gw jangka pendek … kelihatannya sudah terjadi

November 23, 2008

Katanya, jangan masuk dicicil … tergantung sih

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 7:55 am

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/dollar_cost.htm
Does Dollar Cost Averaging Work?
Dollar cost averaging means investing a fixed amount at fixed intervals of time. That’s a sensible approach, for example, if it means committing yourself to investing a fixed amount of your salary every month toward your retirement.
However, some people also think you should dollar cost average a lump sum. For example, if you had $12,000 that you wanted to invest in a stock index fund, they would tell you to invest $1000 per month over a year, rather than investing the whole amount immediately. The rationale is that market volatility should then work in your favor, because you will automatically be purchasing more shares when the price is low, and fewer shares when the price is high.
As appealing as that theory is, its advantage looks like a myth, as this calculator shows. It uses market data to let you compare dollar cost averaging with lump sum investing for the start date you specify.Each strategy wins at least some of the time, but after a few runs you’ll see that DCA is the statistical “dog”, losing about two times out of three.
Of course, dollar cost averaging will win if your start date falls right before a dramatic crash (like October 1987) or at the start of an overall 12 month slump (like most of 2000). But unless you can predict these downturns ahead of time, you have no scientific reason to believe that dollar cost averaging will give you an advantage.
So why do so many people persist in believing that this old dog really knows how to hunt? Maybe because it has a psychological appeal: if the market dips, people will be happy because DCA will be saving them money; and if the market goes up, people will be happy regardless.

… metode cicil adalah karena jumlah dana investasi terbatas dan horizon waktu jangka panjang, tetapi hasilnya ternyata berdasarkan penelitian di link situs di atas: 2/3 NEGATIVE GAIN … tapi pada saat krisis dan bearish trend saat ini, cara cicil malah menguntungkan … pilih deh yang terbaik

November 19, 2008

berapa lama jangka panjang itu?

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 6:53 am

How long is long term?
It took the stock market 25 years to climb past the pre-Great Depression levels. It wasn’t until July of 1954 that the Dow Jones (AMEX: DIA – News) was able to reach new highs. Do you have 25 years just to get even?
Most of us will have to take a hands-on approach to squeeze every last basis point out of our portfolio. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter is designed to zero in on easy to follow ETF profit opportunities for the pro-active investor.http://biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/081118/95_id.html

katanya 25 taon itu jangka panjang, jadi elo mau inves segitu lama? up2u lah yaow … gw sih baru seperlima jalan, tapi uda menikmati sebagian keuntungan untuk beli properti dan kebutuhan tertentu … up2u … don’t force yourself too much … he3

… artikel di atas adalah kritik pada Buffett yang katanya uda punya potensi rugi $16 milyar, yaitu dengan cara masuk saat orang laen bohwat … well, jalan cerita masih bersambung kok

Contrarian Strategy: RARE EVENT

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 1:59 am


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kejadian langka, tentu saja perlu kesabaran abis, karena jarang banget terjadi
saking jarangnya, bisa jadi puluhan taon baru terjadi sekali … contoh yang terjadi adalah rancangan seorang penyabar itu, Taleb … doi mendirikan sebuah perusahaan beraset $300 juta pada Desember 2007, saat euforia masih melanda bursa global, padahal Agustus 2007 sudah terjadi market collapse pertama akibat subprime mortgage crises … sepenuh keyakinan dan sepenuh kesabaran doi menanti S& P ambruk kira2 30% pada Oktober 2008 … ayo mana tahan buat SPEKULAN MARKET TIMING jangka pendek??
jelas ini adalah cara contrarian strategy juga, yaitu mengukur emosi pasar … ketika suhu emosi tinggi, saatnya untuk berinves opsi (option) put bahwa pasar akan anjlok karena suhu emosi rendah melihat situasi ekonomi makro yang amat tidak nyaman … jelas cara ini juga lebe panjang daripada cara gw maen contrarian strategy … jadi, gw bole belajar juga neh … he3

November 17, 2008

ANDA TERGODA UNTUK NGINTIP?

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 8:45 am

Five rules for investing in an unruly market
CHUCK JAFFE
Commentary: Don’t peek at your post-peak portfolio
By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatchLast update: 12:28 p.m. EST Nov. 16, 2008BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Jack Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, reminded me recently that one of his “prime rules of investing” can be summed up in two words: Don’t peek.”Peek the day you retire,” Bogle said, “and you are going to have so much money, you are going to say ‘What kind of miracle is this!'” Not to doubt Bogle, but anyone who hasn’t looked at the returns of their mutual funds for the last few months or years and just now decided to gaze upon their retirement accounts probably isn’t feeling uplifted. The only miracle they’re hoping for is the one that can rebuild their savings.

SYARAT INVESTASI YANG BERKELANJUTAN: JANGAN SUKA NGINTIP NILAINYA SAAT INI (he3… apalagi nyatet2 tiap hari kaya gw… jangan bo!)… Kata Bogle: INVES DENGAN MATA TERTUTUP

Bogle’s point, of course, is that the miracle of the market is to invest over a sufficient time frame to allow the market to do its work. And yet while he follows a no-peeking rule, Bogle’s ability to persevere with his eyes closed is based on some very solid and sound investment ideas. For investors whose primary investment strategy now is to put their head down and power through until they reach retirement age, there’s more to success than keeping your eyes closed. Here are the things you have to do, in order to be able to live as a long-term investor without looking at your statements:
1. Have an appropriate asset allocation, and enough cash to cover emergencies and short- to intermediate-term needs Bogle believes investors should have a percentage of their assets in bonds that is equal to their age, so a 50-year-old would have an even split between stocks and bonds. Many financial advisers would suggest that rule of thumb is too conservative. It’s not hard to find people who would suggest it’s your age minus 40, so that the bond portion of your portfolio starts at age 40 and grows each year from there. Whatever your solution, the key to taking a set-it-and-forget-it approach is to have a strategy that you are comfortable with, so that you are not tempted to peek. Without that kind of allocation and a plan for adjusting it over time, the temptation to look at — and tweak — the portfolio will be there whenever the market makes a move, good or bad.
2. Find mutual funds (or other investments) you can believe in Bogle, of course, is the patron saint of indexing, the guy who first persuaded America that time in the market will outdo timing the market over a lifetime. He uses index funds for his own strategy and is willing to strap himself to the roller coaster and ride along. But some people prefer active managers, hoping to avoid some of the pain when the market experiences a sharp downturn. Whichever strategy you take in executing a no-look strategy, consider the implications of your eyes-closed approach. If you can’t be confident that a fund will reward you over the next decade or more, then you’re not only going to want to check in periodically, but you will second-guess your pick at each and every look-see.
REKSA DANA adalah salah satu jenis investasi yang dianjurkan karena MANAJER INVESTASInya yang aktif
3. Have a solid concept of your needs and time horizon Short-term needs don’t belong at risk in the stock market. If you need the money, you should watch it like a hawk to make sure it will be available. Thus, the only monies that should be exposed to a closed-eye approach are the ones that have a sufficiently long time horizon to pay off.
SAHAM ga bisa buat jangka pendek bo … jadi, investasikan dana yang memang tidak direncanakan untuk dipakai dalam jangka pendek dan menengah

4. Have a willingness to save until it hurts There is a difference between having the market help you save and depending on the market to save for you. The latter strategy typically involves needing higher rates of return and taking excessive risk to play catch-up for less-than-adequate savings. One of the successes of a no-peek strategy is that an investor may know they are setting aside chunks of money regularly, but those direct deposits typically are automatic and painless. The more you set aside, the more fuel you’ll have for the time when the market is delivering your version of Bogle’s miracle.
dollar averaging method: MASUK KECIL2 DAN SECARA BERKALA TERUS MENERUS sampai JANGKA PANJANG ATAU PENSIUN sekalian

5. Don’t rush to “Plan B” No peeking requires commitment. If you open your eyes, get scared and make a change, you’re too late.
JANGAN BUKA MATA LALU NGINTIP NILAI INVESTASI ANDA … TERLAMBAT SUDAH, ANDA PASTI TERGODA DAN TERGANGGU UNTUK MENCAIRKAN INVESTASI ANDA KARENA KECEMASAN
You only got scared because you rode out the bad parts of the market, and unless you have a plan for recovering, you’re just going to flail around and get the worst the market has to offer. While Bogle would like investors to think that no peeking is easy to live by, the truth is that it’s every bit as hard as trying to follow a timing strategy, a sector-rotation approach or any active management idea. It may not require as many trades or moves, but it involves just as much commitment to following the plan through times of failure to reach success.
Chuck Jaffe is a senior MarketWatch columnist. His work appears in dozens of U.S. newspapers.

November 12, 2008

menurut infovesta.com:

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 3:13 am

Manajer investasi diminta segera sesuaikan dana kelolaan minimal
Rabu, 12 November 2008

JAKARTA : Badan Pengawas Pasar
Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK) mulai meminta manajer investasi (MI)
segera menyesuaikan modal disetor dan minimal dana kelolaan masing-masing Rp25
miliar.

Ketentuan itu termuat
dalam rancangan revisi Peraturan Nomor V.A.1 tentang Perizinan Perusahaan Efek
dan Pengawasan Berbasis Manajemen Risiko bagi Manajer Investasi.

“Pemenuhan aturan
itu tidak diwajibkan, hanya disesuaikan dengan komitmen bisnis mereka,”
ujar Kepala Biro Pengelolaan Investasi Djoko Hendratto akhir pekan lalu.

Otoritas pasar modal
mulai mendorong MI untuk memenuhi ketentuan dalam draf aturan itu, dengan
tujuan tidak memberatkan pelaku pasar ketika diberlakukan.

Langkah awal yang
dilakukan otoritas pasar modal adalah memanggil MI untuk melengkapi fungsi yang
belum dipenuhi dan menetapkan waktu tiga bulan untuk menyanggupi komitmen yang
telah mereka sepakati.

Bapepam-LK telah
mengedarkan contoh surat pernyataan komitmen
yang harus diisi dan ditandatangani oleh MI. Dalam surat itu dijelaskan MI wajib memenuhi dana
kelolaan minimal Rp25 miliar. Apabila syarat ini tidak terpenuhi dalam tiga
bulan, MI dituntut mengembalikan izinnya ke otoritas pasar modal.

Sumber mengatakan tidak
semua MI mampu memenuhi aturan tersebut karena kondisi pasar yang tidak baik.
“Itu sangat pilih kasih terhadap MI besar dan tidak memikirkan MI kecil
yang belum tentu dapat mengaplikasikannya.”

Dia menuding Asosiasi
Pengelola Reksa Dana yang menjadi perwakilan pelaku industri reksa dana tidak
mampu menyuarakan suara anggotanya dan hanya mementingkan perusahaan besar. (tin01bis)

November 10, 2008

obligasi jangka pendek & rd pasar uang cerah?

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana — bumi2009fans @ 2:10 am

Harga SUN berpotensi naik
Senin, 10 November 2008

JAKARTA : Harga surat utang negara
(SUN) bertenor jangka pendek pekan ini diprediksi terus naik, akibat
meningkatnya aksi beli dari beberapa manajer investasi (MI) yang akan
meluncurkan produk reksa dana dengan portofolio surat utang negara.

Senior Vice President
Head of Debt Capital Markets PT CIMB-Securities Indonesia A. Siwiwardhani
mengatakan akibat aksi beli tersebut memicu penurunan imbal hasil.

Pemicu lainnya,
lanjutnya, adalah aksi beli yang dilakukan oleh sebagian bank yang selektif
mengucurkan kredit hingga akhir tahun.

“Mereka [bank
dengan likuiditas berlebih] memiliki pilihan untuk menempatkan dananya pada
instrumen investasi yang lebih bebas risiko seperti SUN,” ujarnya kemarin.

Berbeda dengan
Siwiwardhani, Head of Debt Capital Markets PT Trimegah Securities Tbk Heru
Helbianto menilai sektor perbankan yang memiliki likuiditas lebih, setelah giro
wajib minimum (GWM) diturunkan dari 7,5% menjadi 5% belum mampu mencairkan
likuiditas akibat penetapan BI Rate pada level 9,5% pekan lalu.

“Rapat Dewan
Gubernur Bank Indonesia
itu membuat biaya peminjaman uang, khususnya melalui pasar uang antar bank,
masih tinggi.”

Biaya peminjaman uang
yang lebih tinggi, lanjut Helmi, membuat pelaku pasar akan meminta yield yang
lebih tinggi atau menunggu untuk bertransaksi hingga ada sinyal positif yang
lebih kuat dari pasar lokal maupun pasar global.

Heru menilai pelaku
pasar menginginkan suku bunga lokal mengikuti penurunan suku bunga di negara
lain seperti The Federal Reserve di AS, dan Bank of England di Inggris.

“Keputusan itu
memang kurang favourable [populer dan diskukai] dan menyebabkan lack of
confidence [berkurangnya kepercayaan] pasar.”

Perdagangan tipis

Menurut Heru, sikap
pelaku pasar yang menunggu, diprediksi membuat volume perdagangan pekan ini
menipis. Transaksi akan didominasi oleh investor lokal, karena investor asing
sedang berkonsentrasi menyiapkan dana untuk penerbitan obligasi Pemerintah AS
dan Jepang.

Pemerintah AS berniat
menerbitkan surat utang sebesar US$25 miliar untuk tenor tiga tahun pada hari
ini, dan US$20 miliar bertenor 10 tahun pada Rabu dan Kamis sebesar US$10
miliar yang bertenor 30 tahun.

Pemerintah Jepang juga
berencana menerbitkan surat utang setelah
sebelumnya menerbitkan surat
utang sebesar 200 miliar yen pekan lalu.

Penarikan dana oleh
investor asing, tutur Heru, diprediksi masih terjadi, tetapi akan berkurang
karena yield obligasi Indonesia
menarik.

Berdasarkan data Dirjen
Pengelolaan Utang Depkeu, kepemilikan SUN oleh investor asing hingga 4 November
mencapai 16,56% atau turun dibandingkan dengan posisi akhir Oktober sebesar
17,13% dari keseluruhan surat utang negara yang beredar di pasar sekunder senilai
Rp541,7 triliun. (tin01bis)

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