eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

November 9, 2016

beautiful: chaos theory

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 1:08 am

What is Chaos Theory?

Chaos is the science of surprises, of the nonlinear and the unpredictable. It teaches us to expect the unexpected. While most traditional science deals with supposedly predictable phenomena like gravity, electricity, or chemical reactions, Chaos Theory deals with nonlinear things that are effectively impossible to predict or control, like turbulence, weather, the stock market, our brain states, and so on. These phenomena are often described by fractal mathematics, which captures the infinite complexity of nature. Many natural objects exhibit fractal properties, including landscapes, clouds, trees, organs, rivers etc, and many of the systems in which we live exhibit complex, chaotic behavior. Recognizing the chaotic, fractal nature of our world can give us new insight, power, and wisdom. For example, by understanding the complex, chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere, a balloon pilot can “steer” a balloon to a desired location. By understanding that our ecosystems, our social systems, and our economic systems are interconnected, we can hope to avoid actions which may end up being detrimental to our long-term well-being.

Don't blame me!

Principles of Chaos
  • The Butterfly Effect: This effect grants the power to cause a hurricane in China to a butterfly flapping its wings in New Mexico. It may take a very long time, but the connection is real. If the butterfly had not flapped its wings at just the right point in space/time, the hurricane would not have happened. A more rigorous way to express this is that small changes in the initial conditions lead to drastic changes in the results. Our lives are an ongoing demonstration of this principle. Who knows what the long-term effects of teaching millions of kids about chaos and fractals will be?
  • Unpredictability: Because we can never know all the initial conditions of a complex system in sufficient (i.e. perfect) detail, we cannot hope to predict the ultimate fate of a complex system. Even slight errors in measuring the state of a system will be amplified dramatically, rendering any prediction useless. Since it is impossible to measure the effects of all the butterflies (etc) in the World, accurate long-range weather prediction will always remain impossible.
  • Order / Disorder Chaos is not simply disorder. Chaos explores the transitions between order and disorder, which often occur in surprising ways.
  • Mixing: Turbulence ensures that two adjacent points in a complex system will eventually end up in very different positions after some time has elapsed. Examples: Two neighboring water molecules may end up in different parts of the ocean or even in different oceans. A group of helium balloons that launch together will eventually land in drastically different places. Mixing is thorough because turbulence occurs at all scales. It is also nonlinear: fluids cannot be unmixed.
  • Feedback: Systems often become chaotic when there is feedback present. A good example is the behavior of the stock market. As the value of a stock rises or falls, people are inclined to buy or sell that stock. This in turn further affects the price of the stock, causing it to rise or fall chaotically.
  • Fractals: A fractal is a never-ending pattern. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. They are created by repeating a simple process over and over in an ongoing feedback loop. Driven by recursion, fractals are images of dynamic systems – the pictures of Chaos. Geometrically, they exist in between our familiar dimensions. Fractal patterns are extremely familiar, since nature is full of fractals. For instance: trees, rivers, coastlines, mountains, clouds, seashells, hurricanes, etc.

“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”

-Albert Einstein

Teori chaos dalam Ilmu Sosial

Sepuluh teori KIAMAT yang gagal:

teori kiamat menurut Britannica



November 7, 2016

I heart you: kopi @otot saluran indung … 290511_081116

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 3:02 pm


Eur J Clin Nutr. 2012 Aug;66(8):872-7. doi: 10.1038/ejcn.2012.68. Epub 2012 Jun 20.

The effect of coffee consumption on serum lipids: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.



Numbers of epidemiological studies assessing coffee consumption and serum lipids have yielded inconsistent results. We aimed to evaluate the effects of coffee intake on serum lipids.


We searched several English and Chinese electronic databases up to September 2011 for randomized controlled trials of coffee on serum lipids. Weighted mean effect size was calculated for net changes in serum lipids by using random-effect models or fixed-effect models. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses were conducted to explore possible explanations for heterogeneity among trials.


Twelve studies conducted in Western countries with a total of 1017 subjects were identified. Meta-analyses showed, on average, drinking coffee for 45 days was associated with an increase of 8.1 mg/dl (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.5, 11.6; P<0.001) for total cholesterol (TC), 5.4 mg/dl (95% CI: 1.4, 9.5; P=0.009) for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and 12.6 mg/dl (95% CI: 3.5, 12.6; P=0.007) for triglyceride (TG). The increase in TC were greater in trials using unfiltered coffee and caffeinated coffee as the treatment group. Those who had hyperlipidemia were more sensitive to the cholesterol-raising effect of coffee. Meta-regression analysis revealed a positive dose-response relation between coffee intake and TC, LDL-C and TG.


The intake of coffee especially unfiltered coffee is contributed significantly to the increase in TC, LDL-C and TG, and the changes were related to the level of intake. Studies of coffee intake on serum lipids in Asian populations should be performed.

[PubMed – indexed for MEDLINE]


Am J Clin Nutr. 2011 Aug;94(2):601-10. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.110.010926. Epub 2011 Jun 29.

Green tea intake lowers fasting serum total and LDL cholesterol in adults: a meta-analysis of 14 randomized controlled trials.



The effect of green tea beverage and green tea extract on lipid changes is controversial.


We aimed to identify and quantify the effect of green tea and its extract on total cholesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol.


We performed a comprehensive literature search to identify relevant trials of green tea beverages and extracts on lipid profiles in adults. Weighted mean differences were calculated for net changes in lipid concentrations by using fixed-effects or random-effects models. Study quality was assessed by using the Jadad score, and a meta-analysis was conducted.


Fourteen eligible randomized controlled trials with 1136 subjects were enrolled in our current meta-analysis. Green tea consumption significantly lowered the TC concentration by 7.20 mg/dL (95% CI: -8.19, -6.21 mg/dL; P < 0.001) and significantly lowered the LDL-cholesterol concentration by 2.19 mg/dL (95% CI: -3.16, -1.21 mg/dL; P < 0.001). The mean change in blood HDL-cholesterol concentration was not significant. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed that these changes were not influenced by the type of intervention, treatment dose of green tea catechins, study duration, individual health status, or quality of the study. Overall, no significant heterogeneity was detected for TC, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol; and results were reported on the basis of fixed-effects models.


The analysis of eligible studies showed that the administration of green tea beverages or extracts resulted in significant reductions in serum TC and LDL-cholesterol concentrations, but no effect on HDL cholesterol was observed.



Awas, Kopi Bikin Wanita Sulit Hamil!
Tribune News – Sab, 28 Mei 2011

… mau tau lebe banyak soal kopi : KOPI atawa TEH, sami mawon dan soal keracunan kopi: caffein intoxication

TRIBUNNEWS.COM – Minum kopi membuat wanita lebih sulit hamil, sebuah penelitian menyebutkannya.

Ini diperkirakan karena Kafein, yang terkandung dalam kopi merusak transportasi telur dari ovarium ke rahim, sebut para ilmuwan dari Amerika.

Penelitian yang melibatkan 9.000 wanita ini menemukan bahwa minum lebih dari empat cangkir kopi sehari memotong kemungkinan hamil hingga seperempat kali.

Penyelidikan terbaru yang dilakukan pada mencit menunjukkan bahwa kafein menghambat kontraksi saluran tuba yang dibutuhkan untuk membawa telur ke rahim.

Kafein mengaktifkan sel-sel alat pacu jantung khusus di dinding tabung. Sel-sel gelombang koordinasi kontraksi tabung yang bergerak membawa telur menuju rahim.

Pemimpin studi Sean Ward, dari University of Nevada di Reno, AS, mengatakan temuan ini memberikan penjelasan menarik tentang mengapa wanita dengan konsumsi kafein tinggi seringkali memakan waktu lebih lama untuk hamil daripada wanita yang tidak mengonsumsi kafein. (*)



Female coffee drinkers at risk of reduced fertility
Posted Thu, 26 May 2011 11:11:01 GMT by Kieran Ball
Female coffee drinkers at risk of reduced fertility

A new study shows that women should consider giving up coffee to maximise their chances of getting pregnant. The report, in the British Journal of Pharmacology, focuses on research from the University of Nevada School of Medicine indicating that caffeine inhibits the movement of eggs along the fallopian tubes, reducing the chance of conception.

By studying mice, Professor Sean Ward’s team found that caffeine inhibited the actions of specialised cells along the walls of the fallopian tubes that help carry the eggs from the ovaries to the uterus. The researcher found that caffeine affected the action of ‘pacemaker’ cells, slowing the transit of eggs.

Professor Ward believes that this may explain why women who drink caffeinated drinks, such as coffee and cola, may have trouble becoming pregnant:

”This provides an intriguing explanation as to why people with high caffeine consumption can often take longer to conceive than women who do not consume caffeine.”

The professor went on to say that caffeine’ effect on muscle activity within the fallopian tubes occurs ”in concentrations well within what people are drinking”.

Professor Ward’s work is the latest in a number of studies that has linked caffeine to reduced fertility. A few years ago, Ronald Gray, a professor at John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health researched the connection between caffeine and fertility and showed that women who consumed more than 300mg of caffeine each day (the equivalent of two average cups of coffee) decreased their chance of becoming pregnant by about 27% compared to those who did not drink caffeinated drinks.

Ward suggests that the research could further our understanding of the mechanisms at work within the fallopian tubes and help research into ectopic pregnancies – a painful condition where embryos become implanted in the fallopian tubes:

”As well as potentially helping women who are finding it difficult to get pregnant, a better understanding of the way fallopian tubes work will help doctors treat pelvic inflammation and sexually transmitted disease more successfully.”

Caffeine is thought to be the most frequently ingested pharmacologically active substance in the world today.

Why Caffeine Can Reduce Fertility in Women

ScienceDaily (May 23, 2011) — Caffeine reduces muscle activity in the fallopian tubes that carry eggs from the ovaries to the womb, according to recent animal studies.

“Our experiments were conducted in mice, but this finding goes a long way towards explaining why drinking caffeinated drinks can reduce a woman’s chance of becoming pregnant,” says Professor Sean Ward from the University of Nevada School of Medicine, Reno. Ward’s study is published in the British Journal of Pharmacology.

Human eggs are microscopically small, but need to travel to a woman’s womb if she is going to have a successful pregnancy. Although the process is essential for a successful pregnancy, scientists know little about how eggs move through the muscular Fallopian tubes. It was generally assumed that tiny hair-like projections, called cilia, in the lining of the tubes, waft eggs along assisted by muscle contractions in the tube walls.

By studying tubes from mice, Professor Ward and his team discovered that caffeine stops the actions of specialised pacemaker cells in the wall of the tubes. These cells coordinate tube contractions so that when they are inhibited, eggs can’t move down the tubes. In fact these muscle contractions play a bigger role than the beating cilia in moving the egg towards the womb. “This provides an intriguing explanation as to why women with high caffeine consumption often take longer to conceive than women who do not consume caffeine,” says Professor Ward.

Discovering the link between caffeine consumption and reduced fertility has benefits. “As well as potentially helping women who are finding it difficult to get pregnant, a better understanding of the way Fallopian tubes work will help doctors treat pelvic inflammation and sexually-transmitted disease more successfully,” says Professor Ward. It could also increase our understanding of what causes ectopic pregnancy, an extremely painful and potentially life-threatening situation in which embryos get stuck and start developing inside a woman’s Fallopian tube.


November 2, 2016

ber$amaMU: IJIN berbelit-belit, BAHKAN pasca SMUA PAKET yang BIJAK, pak Jokowi

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:52 am

pangkas semua BIAYA n PAJAK

Jakarta detik – Menteri Keuangan, Sri Mulyani Indrawati ,sempat bertemu pengusaha sekaligus pemilik gerai di Pacific Place, Jakarta, Rabu (2/11/2016). Ini dilakukan sebagai bagian dari sosialisasi tax amnesty.

“Jadi dalam hal ini untuk memberikan sosialisasi. Pemahaman kepada seluruh pelaku ekonomi. Ini tidak dibedakan yang kecil dan menengah, semuanya memiliki kewajiban yang sama kepada negara yaitu membayar pajak yang benar,” kata Sri Mulyani usai pertemuan dengan para pemilik gerai di Pacific Place.

Menurut CEO Pacific Place, Tan Kian, yang ikut mendampingi Sri Mulyani, pertemuan itu dihadiri pemilik maupun perwakilan gerai yang menjual barang mewah.

“Sama owner (gerai) Hermes, Bvlgari, The Time Place, Zegna. Kemudian, Kem Chicks ada profesionalnya, Mitra Adiperkasa ada profesionalnya. Ada 20-an pengusaha ritel barang branded di sini,” ujar Tan Kian.

Selain sosialisasi tax amnesty, Sri Mulyani juga mendengarkan keluh kesah para pemilik gerai. Mereka mengeluh soal masalah pabean hingga perizinan.

“Masalah kepabeanan, penyelundupan, sama izin susah. Mereka bilang kalau izin penanaman modal asing bisa 6 sampai 8 bulan. Tadi bicara sama Ibu Sri begitu,” tutur Tan Kian. (hns/hns)


Liputan6.com, Jakarta – Ketua Umum Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo) Haryadi Sukamdani menyatakan dari 13 paket kebijakan ekonomi yang telah dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah, hanya beberapa beberapa paket saja yang langsung terasa dampaknya bagi sektor usaha.

Pertama, yaitu paket kebijakan ‎ekonomi jilid IV yang salah satunya berisi soal formula pengupahan. Adanya formula ini dinilai memberikan kepastian bagi para pengusaha dalam perencanaan kegiatan usahanya.

“Misalnya soal pengupahan, itu memberikan kepastian bagi pengusaha untuk melakukan perencanaan biaya tenaga kerja,” ujar dia dalam acara Rembuk Nasional di Hotel Grand Sahid Jaya, Jakarta, Senin (24/10/2016).

Kedua, paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid II terkait dengan ‎pembangunan pusat logistik berikat (PLB). Adanya PLB memberi dampak pada efisiensi impor pada sektor industri. Hal ini secara tidak langsung membantu mendorong pertumbuhan industri di dalam negeri.

‎”Kemudian masalah pusat logistik berikat, karena itu mengurangi biaya impor dan dwelling time turun. Lalu juga dari BKPM soal percepatan izin dasar itu respon kita positif,” kata dia.

Namun demikian, yang menjadi koreksi dari pengusaha yaitu soal koordinasi antar instansi pemerintah yang dinilai belum berjalan dengan baik. Hal ini membuat masih banyaknya paket kebijakan ekonomi yang belum berjalan dengan baik.

“Memang agak sulit bicara persentase, tapi masih banyak yang harus dilakukan, (paket kebijakan ekonomi) yang efektif jumlahnya masih relatif kecil. ‎Koordinasi masih belum optimal,” tandas dia. (Dny/Gdn)


Nilai investasi di Kabupaten Mojokerto tahun ini diprediksi menurun. Prediksi itu menyusul sikap para investor yang enggan menanamkan modal di daerah ini.

Menurunnya minat investor ini terjadi di tengah upaya Pemkab Mojokerto meningkatkan nilai investasi dengan membuka lahan ribuan hektare untuk industri di wilayah utara Sungai Brantas sejak tahun lalu. Tak hanya menyediakan lahan yang disiapkan untuk berdirinya pabrik- pabrik, pemkab juga telah memperbaiki infrastruktur jalan dengan nilai tak sedikit. Namun, upaya itu tak berbanding lurus dengan jumlah investor yang masuk. Investor mulai enggan berinvestasi karena terkendala beberapa hal.

Salah satunya adalah tingginya upah minimum kota (UMK) tahun ini dan proses perizinan dinilai berbelit-belit. Pengusaha menilai dua masalah yang sedang dihadapi itu memaksa mereka berpikir dua kali dalam berinvestasi. UMK tahun ini yang mencapai angka Rp3.030.000 sangat memberatkan pengusaha, kata Ketua Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia( Apindo) Kabupaten Mojokerto Bambang Wijanarko kemarin. Dalam sarasehan dengan tema Bersinergi dalam Peningkatan dan Keberlangsungan Investasi, Bambang juga menyebutkan, tingginya nilai UMK menyebabkan banyak perusahaan tak bisa membayar upah sesuai UMK.

Dikatakannya, dari sekitar 400 perusahaan di Kabupaten Mojokerto hanya sekitar 30% yang mampu membayar upah sesuai UMK. “Ini salah satu yang membuat investor takut berinvestasi,” katanya. Ia menyebutkan, keluhan pengusaha telah disampaikan kepada Pemkab Mojokerto dan institusi pemerintahan lainnya. Tak hanya itu, pengusaha juga telah menawarkan solusi agar iklim investasi di Kabupaten Mojokerto tetap sehat. Namun menurutnya, keluhan itu juga tak direspons pemerintah daerah.

Harusnya Pemkab Mojokerto berani keluar dari ring satu dan menerapkan upah batas bawah sesuai dengan Undang-Undang UU RI Nomor 13 Tahun 2003 tentang Ketenagakerjaan. Besaran UMK tahun ini, kata dia, nanti juga bakal diperburuk dengan perkiraan UMK tahun depan yang menyentuh kisaran Rp3,2 juta. Ia yakin dengan kondisi seperti itu tak hanya investor baru yang enggan berinvestasi, pengusaha lama juga bakal berpikir dua kali untuk tetap bertahan berinvestasi di Kabupaten Mojokerto. “Dalam pengupahan, seharusnya menggunakan sistem cluster,” katanya.

Selain tingginya nilai UMK, investor juga mengeluhkan buruknya pelayanan perizinan yang diberikan Pemkab Mojokerto. Menurut Bambang, proses perizinan untuk investasi di Kabupaten Mojokerto berbelit dan tak menganut standar pelayanan justru mengganjal masuknya investor. Ia berharap masalah ini bisa diselesaikan Pemkab Mojokerto jika ingin ekonomi daerah ini tumbuh. “Izin setidaknya bisa dipercepat atau jika tidak, beri proses sesuai dengan aturan,” ujarnya.

Kepala Dinas Tenaga Kerja dan Transmigrasi Kabupaten Mojokerto Tri Mulyanto tak menampik jika tingginya UMK berdampak terhadap iklim industri di wilayahnya. Menurutnya, dalam penentuan UMK, pihaknya telah berupaya agar ada titik temu antara pengusaha dan karyawan. “Memang saya nilai UMK Kabupaten Mojokerto tinggi. Kita juga berharap masalah ini bisa dirundingkan antara perwakilan buruh dan pengusaha dalam penentuan UMK tahun depan,” kata Tri Mulyanto.

Ia kembali berharap kalangan buruh bisa memahami kondisi yang sedang dihadapi pengusaha saat ini. “Toh, kalau banyak perusahaan yang tutup, buruh sendiri akan kebingungan,” katanya.


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