eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Desember 28, 2011

alamat palsu: emaaa($1564)aa$ … 291211

Filed under: EMAS or GOLD...ce'ileh... — bumi2009fans @ 10:51 pm

Rabu, 28/12/2011 19:10 WIB
Prospek Harga Emas di Tahun 2012
Nurul Qomariyah – detikFinance

Jakarta – Harga emas mengalami pergerakan yang sangat fluktuatif sepanjang tahun 2011. Meski akhir-akhir ini trend harganya terus turun, namun emas masih menjadi komoditas yang mencetak kenaikan gemilang di 2011.

Rata-rata harga emas di tahun 2011 adalah sekitar US$ 1.569,88 per ounce. Harga terendah terjadi pada 28 Januari di US$ 1.308,25 per ounce, dan puncak harga emas terjadi pada 6 September ketika harga menembus US$ 1.921,15 per ounce.

Jika pada semester I harga emas cukup tenang, tidak demikian pada semester II. Gejolak harga emas semakin menjadi-jadi pada paruh kedua tahun 2011, terutama pada Agustus dan September, dengan harga emas harian sempat turun 7% selama September, meski sempat menguat hingga 4% selama Juli.

Capaian harga emas itu tentu saja lebih tinggi ketimbang rata-rata harga emas tahun 2010 yang sebesar US$ 1.225 per ounce.

Lantas bagaimana proyeksi harga emas di tahun 2012?

Biro Ekonomi Sumber Daya dan Energi Australia memperkirakan harga emas pada tahun 2012 akan meningkat 17% menjadi sekitar US$ 1.850 per ounce. Sementara produksi emas dunia diperkirakan naik 3% didorong kenaikan produksi di Afrika dan Amerika Latin.

“Harga emas diperkirakan didorong oleh tingkat suku bunga yang rendah di AS dan Eropa, perubahan portofolio di neraca sejumlah bank sentral dan berlanjutnya investasi serta permintaan dari konsumen dinegara-negara berkembang,” jelas biro tersebut seperti dikutip dari Sydney Morning Herald, Kamis (29/12/2011).

Dalam catatannya kepada klien pada bulan Desember, kepala pialang emas Goldman Sachs, Zak Dhabalia memperkirakan titik tertinggi bisa dengan mudah terlampui dan akan menjadi tahun kesuksesan ke-12 lagi.

“Kami akan memulai tahun ini dengan posisi yang sedikit lebih rendah. Tantangan pada pasar yang makro seperti permintaan investor dan bank sentral terhadap emas masih memberikan pengaruh,” jelasnya.

“Akan menarik melihat jika peran dari investor institusi akan menjadi lebih relevan ketimbang investor fisik (ritel) yang mendominasi tahun 2011,” tambahnya.

Pada perdagangan Rabu (28/12/2011), harga emas terpantau turun tipis berbarengan dengan turunnya harga logam dan pasar saham. Di pasar spot, harga emas turun 0,5% ke level US$ 1.585,70 per ounce.

(qom/hen)

Gold Posts Longest Slump Since 2009
By Debarati Roy and Maria Kolesnikova – Dec 28, 2011

Gold fell, capping the longest slump since October 2009, and silver tumbled to a three-month low as Europe’s deepening debt crisis drove commodities and stocks lower.

The euro dropped to an 11-month low against the dollar as lending to financial institutions sent the European Central Bank’s balance sheet to a record high. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 raw materials and the MSCI World Index of equities were poised for the biggest declines in two weeks. Platinum approached the lowest since November 2009, and palladium dropped almost 3 percent.

The ECB said lending to euro-area banks jumped 214 billion euros ($276.9 billion) to 879 billion in the week ended Dec. 23, bolstering credit to the economy during the fiscal turmoil. Gold has slumped 19 percent from a record $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 6, partly on sales to cover losses in other markets. About $10 trillion has been erased from global equities (MXWD) since May.

“What’s going on in Europe is very worrying,” James Dailey, who manages $215 million at TEAM Financial Management LLC in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, said in an e-mail. “The dollar’s strength is working against all commodities, including gold.”

Gold futures for February delivery declined 2 percent to settle at $1,564.10 at 1:47 p.m. on the Comex in New York. The price dropped for the fifth straight session, the longest slide since October 2009. The commodity headed for the first quarterly slump since September 2008.

Silver futures for March delivery fell 5.2 percent to $27.234 an ounce on the Comex. Earlier, the price touched $27.10, the lowest since Sept. 26. The metal has plummeted 45 percent from a 31-year high of $49.845 on April 25.

India, China

Gold imports by India, the biggest consumer, may drop as much as 50 percent this month after the rupee plunged, according to the Bombay Bullion Association. China restricted gold trading in spot and futures contracts to the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange to crack down on illegal buying and selling of commodities.

“Concerns were raised over the sustainability of demand out of China and India,” Marc Ground, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc, said in a report.

Platinum futures for April delivery declined 3.2 percent to $1,392.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $1,388.60. On Dec. 15, the metal declined to $1,376, the lowest since Nov. 13, 2009.
‘No Surprise’

Palladium futures for March delivery slumped 2.9 percent to $647.15 an ounce on Nymex, the biggest drop since Dec. 14.

This year, gold has advanced 10 percent, heading for the 11th straight annual gain, on demand for an alternative investment amid slumping equities.

“Gold has been one of the best performers this year, so it comes as no surprise that we are seeing some end-of-year profit- taking,” said Ronald Stoeferle, a commodity analyst at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna.

Before today, the MSCI equity index dropped 7.5 percent this year.

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