eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Januari 31, 2010

kenangan terindah: kualitas J digerogoti fokus Ch … kayanya : 010210

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 8:27 pm

JANUARY 28, 2010
Questions Grow on Japanese Manufacturing Quality
JANUARY 29, 2010
TOKYO—Toyota Motor Corp.’s massive recall comes at a time when Japanese manufacturers across the board, known for their attention to detail and craftsmanship, are facing a sharp spike in customer complaints, accident reports and product recalls at home.

The number of incidents rose dramatically after the introduction of a new law in 2007 requiring Japanese companies for the first time to report all accidents involving their products that result in death or major injury. In the past, it was left to the company’s discretion to disclose accidents. A series of high-profile product safety scandals spurred a change in regulation.

It is unclear how much of the jump also flows from a decline in the quality of Japanese manufacturing as companies look for ways to slash costs and compete globally.

Any tarnish on Japan’s manufacturing prowess is especially touchy, because of the country’s obsession with “monozukuri,” literally translated as “making things.” It is a source of national pride and a spirit of craftsmanship widely credited for the post-war success of Japan’s biggest companies including Toyota, Sony Corp. and Panasonic Corp.

Considered for years the gold standard of automobile quality, Toyota dealt a blow to Japan’s monozukuri image by halting sales and production of eight models sold in North America and further recalls in Europe and China in response to concerns that possible defects may cause the vehicles to accelerate unintentionally.

In Japan, the monozukuri image may already be declining. In the five years between 2004 and 2008, the number of domestic cars recalled in Japan was double that of the preceding five years, based on transport ministry data.

The number of safety-related recalls on products sold here excluding cars, food and drugs rose to 189 during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2009, up more than 80% from three years earlier, according to Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

On TuesdaySharp Corp. announced it would recall nearly one million refrigerators covering 48 models made between 1996 and 2001 because of four incidents of a refrigerator door falling off the hinges when objects got jammed in the door.

A Sharp spokeswoman said all the incidents involved using the refrigerator in unintended ways.

The recent trends also reflect a rise in consumer advocacy in Japan. Last year, Japan created a Consumer Affairs Agency to regulate product safety after a series of tainted food scandals and deadly accidents involving home appliances in recent years.

In 2006, a subsidiary of Nagoya-based Paloma Co. caused outrage in Japan after initially denying responsibility over faulty gas water heaters that were blamed in several cases of carbon monoxide poisoning. The scandal prompted law makers to impose tougher rules on companies. Initially, Paloma denied its water heaters were to blame for the deaths. It later said that some of the gas poisonings were the result of a product defect. A Paloma spokesman couldn’t be reached for comment Thursday.

Japan passed a law in May 2007 requiring companies to report all product-related accidents resulting in death or major injury within 10 days. The number of reported accidents doubled in the year ending March 31, 2008, to 6,371 cases, from the previous year, according to the National Institute of Technology and Evaluation.

Analysts say Japan’s relentless focus on cost-cutting in recent years—amid the recession and deflation—has also played a role in the surge in complaints. One aspect of the new science of supply chain management is to share components across many product lines in order to get better prices from suppliers by buying in bulk.

One risk, however, is that a faulty part could cause problems not on just one product but across many product lines. In 2007, Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.„ which would later become Panasonic, recalled three million microwave ovens, dryers and refrigerators because all the products shared common electronic parts that could overheat.

“Companies are also increasingly moving production overseas and want to procure local parts to save costs, but that can make quality control more difficult,” said Hironori Miyauchi, a researcher at the Japan Research Institute, a Tokyo-based engineering think tank.

Electronics products are also becoming more complex, with a greater number of potential risks for quality control, while cars are becoming more dependent on semiconductors and sensors, which can make diagnosing a problem more difficult.

In the electronics industry, the business climate has changed. No longer is it financially viable for one master craftsman to build a television by himself, as was the case as recently as a decade ago. Now, the entire process is automated and manufacturing has taken a backseat to design and marketing in terms of importance.

Most Japanese business executives, at least publicly, say that quality manufacturing is still at the core of Japan’s economy.

“I can’t imagine Japan just throwing away monozukuri and heading down a different path,” said Masamitsu Sakurai, chairman of copier, printer and camera maker Ricoh Co., in a interview with Japanese magazine Toyo Keizai last June.


kenangan terindah: peramal jitu yang AKURASINYA melemah … 310110

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 2:13 pm

Roubini Calls U.S. Growth ‘Dismal and Poor,’ Predicts Slowing

By Simon Kennedy and Erik Schatzker

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) — New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who anticipated the financial crisis, called the fourth quarter surge in U.S. economic growth “very dismal and poor” because it relied on temporary factors.

Roubini said more than half of the 5.7 percent expansion reported yesterday by the government was related to a replenishing of inventories and that consumption depended on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010, he said.

“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television in an interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “I think we are in trouble.”

Roubini said while the world’s largest economy won’t relapse into recession, unemployment will rise from the current 10 percent, posing social and political challenges.

“It’s going to feel like a recession even if technically we’re not going to be in a recession,” he said.

… jangan-jangan, maybe yes maybe no, Roubini mengincar posisi menkeu :
Geithner bashing not seen threatening job–for now

Thu, Jan 28 2010
By David Lawder – Analysis
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Those seeking clues on whether U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will keep his job after another congressional scolding got a big one for the “yes” column on Wednesday night — a warm embrace from the boss.
As a grinning President Barack Obama made his way to the podium in the Capitol building to deliver his State of the Union address and he stopped to put his hand on Geithner’s shoulder, chatting with him longer than others he greeted.
“They arranged it right at the end of the aisle, perfect for the cameras,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
The greeting showed there was “not a chance” Obama would abandon Geithner despite the bashing the Treasury Secretary is taking over insurer AIG’s bailout, Sabato said — at least not ahead of mid-term congressional elections in November.
“Obama likes him and is likely to keep him,” added Thomas Mann, a senior fellow and congressional scholar at the Brookings Institution, a left-leaning think tank in Washington. “Firing him would be a sign of weakness on Obama’s part and he is trying to show strength and resolve.”
Geithner has become a lightning rod for populist anger at Wall Street due to his role in bailouts as head of the New York Federal Reserve and in running the Treasury’s $700 billion bailout program. With Republicans emboldened and many Democrats running scared after Republican Scott Brown’s stunning Senate victory last week in Massachusetts, lawmakers queued up on Wednesday to take swings at the Treasury chief.
At the hearing before the House of Representatives Oversight Committee, Republicans sought to lure Geithner into incriminating or at least evasive answers over how the New York Fed and AIG decided in 2008 to limit disclosures on $62.1 billion in payments of taxpayer funds to top global banks. One Republican even asked him to step down.
Democrats, led by Rep. Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, tore into Geithner for not trying hard enough to win concessions from banks in retiring AIG credit default swaps.
“It just stinks to the high heavens what happened here. I don’t like the obfuscation,” a finger-pointing Lynch shouted at Geithner.
Geithner took the scolding but stuck to his message that no, he wasn’t involved in any disclosure decisions, but yes, he chose to pay off the banks at par value to ward off threats of a devastating credit downgrade for AIG. There was no clear indication he knew about an alleged “cover-up”.
How did Geithner perform? Several observers say he escaped mortal injury, but will need to fight hard to win trust in Congress amid lingering bailout anger and agonizingly slow job growth that has voters questioning Obama’s agenda.
“He was pinata number one for just about everybody, and he survived,” said Norman Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning Washington think tank. “This was not a performance that took a bunch of skeptical lawmakers and turned them into believers.”
In Minnesota, where Geithner flew on Thursday to stump for an Obama jobs and business tax credit bill, Geithner seemed to take the harsh criticism in stride, calling it “part of the privilege of office.”
Despite the show of support from Obama — one of several that the White House has had to provide over the last few months — Geithner will continue to face calculations of odds for his ouster, partly because he won’t be able to shake his association with Wall Street and the bailouts.
“Geithner is a liability to the president and his administration because of his dual role of New York Fed president that presided over the Wall Street abuses and his second role of secretary of Treasury that executed the Paulson plan,” said Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer of the Omnivest Group in Princeton, New Jersey.
“He is too close to the Goldman Sachs fraternity.”
When Obama announced plans last week to curb bank risk by banning depository institutions from hedge fund, private equity and proprietary trading activities, he called it the “Volcker rule,” signaling to some that policy-making power had shifted away from Geithner to former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who has been advising Obama. The administration has denied that Geithner was sidelined in the decision.
Geithner’s tenure is closely tied to the performance of the economy and if job creation does not resume fast enough to boost Democratic fortunes in November’s election, Obama is more likely to consider a change. Passing a regulatory reform bill to rein in Wall Street excesses also could cement Geithner’s position.
“The only escape for anybody in any of this is to fix the economy,” said Steve Elmendorf, a longtime Democratic campaign adviser in Washington.
“A lot of members of Congress are using this to try to make news. What they ought to do is figure out in regulatory reform a better structure that prevents this from happening again,” he added.
(Additional reporting by Glenn Somerville in Minneapolis and Jennifer Ablan in New York; Editing by Gary Hill)

Januari 28, 2010

kenangan terindah: saat kemerdekaan dari belenggu krisis DIDEKLARASIKAN : 280110

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 2:22 am

WASHINGTON, Jan 27, 2010 (AFP)
US President Barack Obama declared in his State of the Union address Wednesday that the worst of the economic storm had passed, but that a trail of devastation was left behind.

Obama said his administration’s early actions last year had staved off a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression.

“And one year later, the worst of the storm has passed, but the devastation remains,” Obama said.
… kata analis senior cnbc, angka pertumbuhan ekonomi amrik yang di Q4=5,7% berarti amrik sudah keluar dari resesi … tapi besaran 5,7 itu masih bisa berubah dan direvisi maksimum 2 kali … well, liat aja dah

Economy soars 5.7 percent in Q4, fastest in 6 years
Fri Jan 29, 2010 8:45am EST
Related News
Instant View: Fourth-quarter GDP soars 5.7 percent
8:45am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the quickest pace in more than six years, as businesses reduced inventories less aggressively, the Commerce Department said on Friday.


The first estimate put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 4.6 percent rate in October-December period.

Growth was boosted a sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory liquidation, a factor that could mask the strength of the economic recovery from the longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

But even stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, accelerating from the 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter, reflecting relatively strong performance from other segments of the economy.

Business inventories fell only $33.5 billion in fourth quarter after dropping $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The change in inventories alone added 3.39 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987.

For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4 percent, the biggest decline since 1946, the first year after the end of World War II, the department said.

In the last three months of 2009, consumer spending increased at a 2 percent annual rate, below the 2.8 percent annual pace in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government’s “cash for clunkers” program.

In the forth quarter, consumer spending contributed 1.44 percentage points to GDP.

Consumer spending, which normally accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity, has been held back by the worst labor market in a quarter century.

Business investment in the fourth quarter grew for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 as the drag from the troubled commercial real estate was offset by robust spending on equipment and software. Business investment rose at a 2.9 percent rate after falling 5.9 percent over the previous three-month period.

The growth of spending on new home construction braked sharply in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 5.7 percent from an 18.9 percent pace in the third quarter. Home building has received a lift from a popular tax credit for first-time buyers, but recent data have hinted at some weakness starting to creep in.

Export growth outpaced imports, leaving a trade gap that contributed half a percentage point to GDP growth in the last quarter.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

Penyelamatan Sektor Keuangan AS di Nilai Gagal

Minggu, 31 Januari 2010 – 16:17 wib

WASHINGTON – Upaya pemerintah Amerika Serikat (AS) guna menyelamatkan sistem keuangan dinilai gagal. Dana segar yang disediakan sebesar USD700 miliar untuk memenuhi tujuan penting, seperti pinjaman dan pengekangan di sektor keuangan, memicu aktivitas berisiko oleh sejumlah perbankan, ungkap auditor khusus AS.

Seperti dikutip dari AFP, Minggu (31/1/2010), Inspektur Jenderal khusus untuk Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) mengatakan dalam sebuah laporan kepada Kongres, penilaian itu dianggap terlalu dini untuk mengukur keberhasilan keseluruhan program di sektor keuangan, setelah puncak krisis keuangan pada bulan Oktober 2008 berlalu.

“Terdapat tanda-tanda yang jelas terhadap aspek sistem keuangan yang jauh lebih stabil daripada puncak krisis pada musim gugur 2008,” ungkapnya.

Namun laporan juga menyatakan bahwa terdapat banyak tujuan yang dinyatakan TARP belum terpenuhi dan potensi krisis baru akan terjadi lagi.
“Penyelamatan sistem keuangan kita (AS) diprediksi akan kembali pada 2008 lalu. Tidak ada reformasi yang berarti, kita memang seolah masih berkendara di jalan gunung berkelok dan ditempat yang sama, tapi kali ini di mobil yang lebih cepat,” kata laporan itu mengibaratkan.

“Secara tidak langsung, dampaknya sudah mulai terasa di wilayah-wilayah khususnya perbankan, seperti meningkatkan kredit, pengekangan penyitaan rumah dan menghalangi perilaku berisiko yang dianggap terlalu besar bagi perusahaan keuangan,” kata laporan dari inspektur Jenderal Neil Barofsky.

“Meskipun begitu, tujuan eksplisit untuk meningkatkan pembiayaan bisnis di AS dan konsumen terus menurun,” tambahnya.

Investor Ragukan Pemulihan Ekonomi
Minggu, 31 Januari 2010 | 18:24 WIB

TEMPO Interaktif, New York – Bursa saham New York mengakhiri perdagangan pada Januari dengan rapor merah lantaran investor masih meragukan proses pemulihan ekonomi. Walaupun dalam kuartal IV-2009 lalu Produk Domestik Bruto Amerika Serikat tumbuh 5,7 persen di atas perkiraan para analis sebesar 4,5 persen tetap tak mampu mengatrol kinerja bursa saham.

Akhir pekan lalu indeks industri Dow Jones ditutup turun 53,13 atau 0,52 persen ke level 10.067,33. Secara akumulasi, selama sepekan turun indeks Dow Jones sudah jatuh 105,65 poin atau 1,04 persen, dan sepanjang Januari terpangkas 360,72 poin atau 3,46 persen.

Saham sempat menguat pada Jumat lalu setelah Departemen Perdagangan Amerika merilis data pertumbuhan domestik bruto 5,7 persen yang di atas prediksi analis. Namun, membaiknya data ekonomi ini juga diikuti meningkatnya pertanyaan terhadap jalannya pemulihan ekonomi, sehingga indeks kembali ditutup negatif.

“Data PDB ini terlihat cukup bagus di permukaan,” ujar senior ahli strategi investasi dari Ridge Worth Investment, Alan Gayle. “Tetapi, bila Anda buka, Anda akan melihat bahwa faktanya tidak akan sebagus yang terlihat dari luar”.

Michael Sheldon, kepala strategi investasi dari RDM Finasial Group, mengatakan data pertumbuhan tersebut bisa menyingkirkan keraguan investor bila perbaikan ekonomi berjalan konsisten. Pertanyaan apakah proses pemulihan bertambah setelah kebijakan pemerintah Cina yang meredam laju ekonominya, serta rencana presiden Obama merevisi aturan perbankan yang memicu kejatuhan saham.


kenangan terindah: kapitalisme itu WARGANEGARA mana seh … 280110

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 2:10 am

Rabu, 27/01/2010 19:31 WIB

Pedagang asing tak lagi pentingkan nasionalisme

oleh : Sepudin Zuhri

JAKARTA (bisnis.com): Forum Pertanian Pangan Indonesia (FPPI) menilai pedagang asing yang telah memiliki agen di Indonesia tidak lagi mementingkan nasionalisme, tetapi lebih kepada keuntungan dalam kegiatan importasi produk pertanian.

Koordinator FPPI Benny A. Kusbini mengatakan banyak trader asing produk pertanian yang telah memiliki agen di Indonesia dan melakukan kegiatan importasi. Para agen yang telah ditunjuk, lanjutnya, tidak lagi memikirkan rasa nasionalisme dalam melakukan kegiatan impor.

“Langkah yang perlu diambil dengan mengatur kegiatan impor, misalkan impor diperbolehkan dengan persyaratan menyerap 50% dari produk lokal. Selama ada kegiatan importasi akan semakin sulit untuk mewujudkan swasembada,” ujarnya kepada Bisnis hari ini.

Dalam tender gula bersama oleh PTPN dan RNI misalnya, seluruhnya dimenangkan oleh trader asing.

Benny menjelaskan saat ini banyak eksportir dari luar negeri yang menunjuk agen perwakilan di Indonesia. “Agen trader asing no problem dengan nasionalisme, karena yang penting kan untung.”

Dia mencontohkan pemerintah China yang memberlakukan mekanisme perlindungan harga produk pertanian domestiknya seperti saat harga bawang putih jatuh, maka pemerintah akan mensubsidi sehingga harga itu tidak sampai di bawah platform harga minimal yang telah ditentukan.

Untuk mengurangi ketergantungan impor, kata dia, maka pemerintah harus mengatur importir dengan memperbolehkan impor jika telah menyerap atau memproduksi produk yang diimpor tersebut sebanyak 50% dari kebutuhanya. (tw)


kenangan terindah: pemulihan emas MELULU dah … 280110

Filed under: EMAS or GOLD...ce'ileh... — bumi2009fans @ 2:03 am

Kamis, 28/01/2010 08:48 WIB

Harga emas spot pagi ini US$1.088,00 per ounce

oleh : Lahyanto Nadie

JAKARTA (Bloomberg): Harga emas di pasar spot pagi ini tercatat di level US$1.088,00 per ounce atau melemah dari posisi kemarin di US$1.102,20 per ounce, berdasarkan data Bloomberg pada pukul 8.30 WIB pagi ini.

Harga emas jatuh di New York untuk pertama kalinya dalam tiga sesi yang mengalami rally di tengah penurunan dolar AS dan beberapa investor melepas emas mereka untuk menutupi penurunan di bursa saham.

Nilai tukar dolar AS naik 0,3% terhadap keranjang enam matau ang utama ketika bursa Eropa dan Asia menurun akibat perkembangan ekonomi di China.

Sebelumnya, harga emas naik 21% tahun lalu ketik dolar AS menurun 7,4%.

“Emas tetap bertahan karena perkembangan nilai tukar dolar AS,” kata Marty McNeill, trader R.F. Lafferty Inc. di New York.

Kontrak emas untuk pengiriman April turun US$13,80, atau 1,3% menjadi US$1.085,70 per ounce di Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index ditutup lebih rendah dan turun 2,6% tahun ini.

Gold akan mengalami pemulihan, menyentuh US$1.300 dalam enam bulan ke depan sehingga meningkatkan permintaan investasi, Investec Global Gold Fund mengatakan dalam laporannya.

Kontak perak untuk pengiriman Maret turun 42 sen atau 2,5% menjadi $16,44 per ounce. Kontrak platina untuk pengiriman April turun $39,20, atau 2,6% menjadi $1.492,10 per ounce. Palladium untuk pengiriman Maret turun US$10,80, atau 2,5% menjadi $416,75 per ounce. (ln)


kenangan terindah: olah tubuh teratur di usia tuwe

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 1:40 am

Rabu, 27/01/2010 00:30 WIB

Olahraga cegah pikun

oleh :

WASHINGTON: Berolahraga secara rutin membantu orang tetap sehat secara fisik dan lebih tajam secara mental saat memasuki usia tua, demikian hasil empat studi yang disiarkan di Archives of Internal Medicine, Washington.

Salah satu studi itu mendapati bahwa perempuan yang berolah raga selama berusia setengah baya -yang didefinisikan rata-rata berusia 60 tahun oleh para peneliti di Harvard School of Public Health, Brigham and Women`s Hospital dan Harvard Medical School- memiliki kemungkinan lebih kecil setelah berusia 70 tahun untuk terserang penyakit kronis, operasi jantung atau fisik, gangguan mental atau daya ingatan. (ANTARA)

Physical Activity at Midlife in Relation to Successful Survival in Women at Age 70 Years or Older
Qi Sun, MD, ScD; Mary K. Townsend, ScD; Olivia I. Okereke, MD; Oscar H. Franco, MD, ScD, PhD; Frank B. Hu, MD, PhD; Francine Grodstein, ScD
Arch Intern Med. 2010;170(2):194-201.


Background Physical activity is associated with reduced risks of chronic diseases and premature death. Whether physical activity is also associated with improved overall health among those who survive to older ages is unclear.

Methods A total of 13 535 Nurses’ Health Study participants who were free of major chronic diseases at baseline in 1986 and had survived to age 70 years or older as of the 1995-2001 period made up the study population. We defined successful survival as no history of 10 major chronic diseases or coronary artery bypass graft surgery and no cognitive impairment, physical impairment, or mental health limitations.

Results After multivariate adjustment for covariates, higher physical activity levels at midlife, as measured by metabolic-equivalent tasks, were significantly associated with better odds of successful survival. Significant increases in successful survival were observed beginning at the third quintile of activity: odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) in the lowest to highest quintiles were 1 [Reference], 0.98 (0.80-1.20), 1.37 (1.13-1.65), 1.34 (1.11-1.61), and 1.99 (1.66-2.38) (P < .001 for trend). Increasing energy expenditure from walking was associated with a similar elevation in odds of successful survival: the ORs (95% CIs) of successful survival across quintiles of walking were 1 [Reference], 0.99 (0.80-1.21), 1.19 (0.97-1.45), 1.50 (1.24-1.82), and 1.47 (1.22-1.79) (P < .001 for trend).

Conclusion These data provide evidence that higher levels of midlife physical activity are associated with exceptional health status among women who survive to older ages and corroborate the potential role of physical activity in improving overall health.


Jump to Section
• Top
• Introduction
• Methods
• Results
• Comment
• Author information
• References

The past century has witnessed a dramatic increase in life expectancy in the United States, from 47.3 years in 1900 to 75.2 years for men and 80.4 years for women in 2005.1 Together with a decreased birth rate and the aging of baby boomers, it is projected that by 2030, 1 in every 5 Americans will be 65 years or older.2 Older adults are disproportionately affected by chronic diseases and functional disabilities, and the attendant medical and social costs aretremendous.2 However, development of chronic diseases and disabilities is not inevitable among aged populations. Several studies have demonstrated that as many as 10% to 50% of those 65 years or older can maintain physical and cognitive integrity and remain free of major chronic illnesses.3-6 Indeed, limited epidemiologic studies conducted primarily among older male populations have identified several modifiable midlife risk factors, such as smoking and obesity, associated with the probability of exceptional health among those who survive to older ages.3-5,7

Physical activity is a well-established approach to reducing risks of many chronic diseases,8-12 and potentially other aspects of health.13-19 However, findings from limited existing studies of the relation between midlife physical activity and overall health and well-being at older ages have been inconsistent. For example, several studies among men and women found that physical activity increased healthy aging,3, 7 disability-free survival,20 or self-reported physical and overall health,21 while a more recent study of Japanese American men reported a null association with successful survival.5 Moreover, evidence specifically among women is lacking, despite the fact that women live longer than men; thus, identifying risk factors for successful survival is particularly important among women. Finally, limited research has addressed the dose-response relationship and intensity of activities in relation to successful survival.

Herein, we use data from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS)22 to further explore the relation between midlife physical activity, including walking, and successful aging as measured by a full spectrum of health outcomes, including incidence of chronic diseases, cognitive and physical functioning, and mental status.23


Jump to Section
• Top
• Introduction
• Methods
• Results
• Comment
• Author information
• References


The NHS is an ongoing prospective cohort study initially comprising 121 700 female registered nurses, aged 30 to 55 years, who responded to a baseline questionnaire in 1976. Follow-up questionnaires have been administered to the participants every 2 years since 1976 to collect and update the information on incidence of diseases and demographic and lifestyle risk factors. In 1986, we started collecting detailed information on physical activity. Through 2000, the close of follow-up for most participants in the present analyses, the follow-up rate was greater than 95%.


In 1986, we inquired about the average time per week in the past year participants spent on leisure-time physical activities, including walking or hiking outdoors; jogging (10 min/mile); running (<10 min/mile); bicycling; lap swimming; playing tennis; doing calisthenics, aerobics, aerobic dance, and/or rowing machine exercise; and playing squash or racquet ball. For each question, there were 10 possible response categories (range, 0 to 11 h/wk). Furthermore, we inquired about flights of stairs climbed each day, and, for walkers, the usual walking pace: easy or casual (<2.0 mph), normal (2.0-2.9 mph), brisk (3.0-3.9 mph), and very brisk (4.0 mph). Based on this information, we calculated energy expenditure in metabolic-equivalent tasks (METs) measured in hours per week.24 Each MET-hour is the caloric need per kilogram of body weight per hour of activity divided by the caloric need per kilogram of weight per hour at rest. According to this standard, we assigned a MET value of 12.0 to running; 8.0 to stair-climbing; 7.0 to jogging, bicycling, lap swimming, and playing tennis and other racquet sports; 6.0 to aerobics and calisthenics; and 2.5 to 4.5 to walking, depending on the pace. In other words, for example, running for an hour would generate 12 METs' energy expenditure; climbing stairs for an hour would generate 8 METs' energy expenditure, and so on. The same amount of energy expenditure can be achieved by various physical activities. For example, to achieve 30 METs/wk, a woman can run for 2.5 h/wk or swim for 4.3 h/wk. In analyses of activity intensity, we defined activity with a MET value larger than 6 as vigorous; walking was defined as a moderate-intensity activity owing to the lower MET value.

For the current analysis, we used 1986, when detailed physical activity information was first obtained, as the study baseline. Moreover, in all analyses, we only considered physical activity reported in 1986 because we wanted to minimize the possibility of reverse causation with aging (ie, if poor underlying health status caused decreased physical activity rather than the opposite). At baseline in 1986, the mean age was 60 years for our study participants, and therefore, midlife was defined as age 60 years for the purposes of this report.

The physical activity questionnaire has been validated in a similar population (the NHS II).25 In a representative sample of 147 nurses, the physical activity scores based on this questionnaire administered 2 years apart were reasonably correlated, given some true changes in activity across 2 years; the test-retest correlation coefficient (r) was 0.59. The questionnaire estimate of physical activity levels was highly correlated with those reported in 1-week recalls (r = 0.79) and those logged in diaries during the year (r = 0.62).


A wide variety of major chronic diseases (ie, cancer, diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, Parkinson disease, and multiple sclerosis) were reported by participants in 1976 and in biennial follow-up questionnaires. The self-reports were confirmed by study physicians through a variety of methods, such as medical record review, pathology report review, telephone interview, or supplementary questionnaire inquiries. The self-report of incidence of chronic diseases among these nurses has been previously demonstrated to be highly valid.26-29


In 1992, 1996, and 2000, we added the Medical Outcomes Survey Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) to the follow-up questionnaires to assess the physical and mental status of the participants. The SF-36 is a 36-item questionnaire that measures eight health concepts, including limitations of physical activities, usual role activities, social activities, mental health, bodily pain, vitality, and general health perceptions. The validity and reproducibility of the SF-36 have been extensively examined and reported elsewhere.30


From 1995 to 2001, we invited all nurses 70 years or older who were free of stroke to participate in a cognitive function study. Of 21 202 invited nurses, 19 415 (92%) agreed to participate and were administered the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS),31 which is modeled on the Mini-Mental State Examination.32 Scores on the TICS have a range of 0 (worst) to 41 (perfect), with a score lower than 31 indicating cognitive impairment.31 The high test-retest reliability and validity of TICS compared with in-person cognitive testing have been demonstrated previously.32 Trained study nurses who were unaware of the study hypothesis and exposure status of the participants administered the TICS with high inter-interviewer reliability.31 Owing to the availability of cognitive data from this group, the present analysis was conducted among these participants.


To evaluate the overall health status of the study participants, we used the concept of successful aging first outlined by Rowe and Kahn,23 which takes into account both comorbidities and disabilities. The working definition of successful aging has been introduced in detail elsewhere.33 Briefly, our definition of successful aging addressed 4 domains: (1) no history of cancer (except nonmelanoma skin cancer), diabetes, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), congestive heart failure, stroke, kidney failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Parkinson disease, multiple sclerosis, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; (2) no impairment in cognitive function (TICS score 31); (3) no physical disabilities (no limitations on moderate activities and no more than moderate limitations on more demanding physical performance measures); and (4) no mental health limitations (mental health score >84, which is the median score in our study population). Any participant who survived to at least age 70 years and met all these criteria was defined as a successful survivor; the remaining participants who survived to at least aged 70 years but had a chronic disease history, CABG, cognitive impairment, physical or mental health limitations were defined as usual survivors. Since the cognitive function of most study participants was assessed in the 1999-2000 period (87.5%), we used the year 2000 to define chronic disease status. Similarly, physical and mental health domains were primarily derived from the SF-36 administered in 2000.

We excluded nurses who had a history of any of the relevant chronic diseases or CABG at baseline (n = 2361) or who had missing physical activity data at baseline (n = 2724). We further excluded those who skipped more than 2 items on the mental health scale at 70 years or older or more than 5 items on the physical function scale in the SF-36 (n = 795). After these participants were excluded, data from 13 535 nurses were available for analysis. All participants gave informed consent. The study protocol was approved by the institutional review board of the Brigham and Women’s Hospital.


We grouped the study participants into quintiles of total METs. We used logistic regression to assess the odds ratios (ORs) of successful survival vs usual survival associated with each quintile, defining the lowest quintile as the reference level. In multivariate logistic regression models, we adjusted for variables defined in 1986, including age at baseline (in years); education (registered nurse, bachelor’s degree, master’s degree, or doctorate); marital status (unmarried, married, widow, separated, or divorced); if married, husband’s education (less than high school, some high school, high school graduate, college graduate, or graduate school); postmenopausal hormone use (never, past, or current use); smoking status (never, past, current 1-14 cigarettes/d, current 15-24 cigarettes/d, or current 25 cigarettes/d); family history of heart disease, diabetes, or cancer (yes or no); dietary polyunsaturated to saturated fat ratio (in quintiles); intakes of trans fat, alcohol, and cereal fiber (all in quintiles); and intakes of fruits and vegetables and red meat (in tertiles). Since moderate-intensity physical activity such as walking was associated with lower risk of chronic diseases in previous studies by our research group,8, 10 we further examined walking METs and pace in relation to successful survival in the present study. When examining the associations for walking MET quintiles, we further adjusted for vigorous activity METs to minimize potential confounding by vigorous physical activity. Similarly, when we examined the associations for walking pace, we further controlled for total METs.

Tests of linear trend across increasing MET quintiles were conducted by treating the quintiles as a continuous variable and assigning the median score for each quintile as its value. All P values were 2 sided. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for ORs. Data were analyzed with the Statistical Analysis Systems software package, version 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc, Cary, North Carolina).


We performed 3 secondary sensitivity analyses to examine the robustness of observed associations. First, although we excluded anyone with major chronic diseases at baseline, and imposed an average 14-year lag period between the assessment of activity levels and the assessment of successful survival, it is still possible that long-term physical disabilities at baseline might have biased our analysis. To address this issue, rather than compare women with the least and the most activity, we repeated the analysis only within participants who reported having at least a minimum level of activity, which we defined as walking at least 1 hour per week or performing any vigorous activity at least 20 minutes per week at baseline. Second, to best address the independent effects of walking as exercise, we estimated the ORs associated with walking METs after excluding women who both walked and participated in vigorous activity. Finally, to examine the robustness of our definition of successful aging, we repeated the analysis using an alternative definition that included the same criteria for chronic disease status, but used median score to define the cut points for cognitive, physical, and mental health domains.33 We conducted this analysis because, while the domains we used for considering successful survival are widely accepted, the specific criteria for defining “successful” within each domain is less established.


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Of the total of 13 535 participants, 1456 (10.8%) met the criteria for successful survivor. Table 1 summarizes the baseline characteristics of the participants in 1986. As expected, successful survivors were more active than usual survivors. The successful survivors were also leaner and less likely to smoke than usual survivors and had a slightly lower prevalence of hypertension or high cholesterol levels.

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Table 1. Baseline Characteristics of Successful Survivors and Usual Survivors in the Nurses’ Health Study22

Table 2 summarizes the age- and multivariate-adjusted ORs of successful survival associated with quintiles of total physical activity METs and walking METs. After adjustment for multiple covariates, the ORs for successful survival across quintiles were 1 [reference], 0.98, 1.37, 1.34, and 1.99 for total METs (P < .001 for trend). We also found associations of similar strength between walking METs and the odds of successful aging. After multivariate adjustment of covariates, ORs for successful survival across walking METs quintiles were 1 [reference], 0.99, 1.19, 1.50, and 1.47 (P < .001 for trend). Further adjustment for possible intermediate variables, such as body mass index (BMI), history of hypertension, and history of hypercholesterolemia, did not change these associations materially.

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Table 2. Odds of Successful Survival Among Women 70 Years or Older in the Nurses’ Health Study22 by Physical Activity Level at Midlife

Independent of the total physical activity levels, increasing walking pace was also strongly associated with a significant increase in odds of successful aging (Table 3). Compared with women whose walking pace was easy, women with a moderate walking pace had a 90% increase in the odds of successful aging; women whose walking pace was brisk or very brisk had 2.68-fold increased odds. To help disentangle the effects of the amount walked on the association with walking pace, we stratified the analysis by lower or higher levels of walking METs. Walking pace was similarly associated with increased odds of successful aging for both groups.

Table 3. Odds of Successful Survival Among Women 70 Years or Older in the Nurses’ Health Study22 by Walking Pace at Midlife

Acknowledging the interrelationship between BMI and physical activity, we also examined the joint associations of BMI in 1986 and total physical activity with successful survival (Figure). The positive associations between physical activity and successful aging persisted within each BMI category (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). Nonetheless, women who were both lean (BMI, 18.5-22.9) and active (highest tertile of total METs) had the highest odds of successful survival in comparison with women who were overweight (BMI, 25) and sedentary (bottom tertile of total METs): the OR was 3.44 (95% CI, 2.74-4.31).

Figure. Participants’ body mass index (BMI) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) and physical activity at baseline in relation with the odds of successful survival in the Nurses’ Health Study.22 The odds ratios were adjusted for the model 1 covariates detailed in footnote c of Table 2. MET indicates metabolic-equivalent tasks, measured in hours per week. Each MET-hour is the caloric need per kilogram of body weight per hour of activity divided by the caloric need per kilogram of weight per hour at rest.

We also considered specific types of vigorous activities. After controlling for moderate-intensity activity METs, we found that several individual vigorous activities were each associated with significantly elevated odds of successful aging. The multivariate ORs (95% CIs) comparing any vs none were 1.66 (1.30-2.14) for jogging, 1.87 (1.33-2.61) for running, 1.34 (1.03-1.74) for playing tennis, and 1.23 (1.09-1.39) for doing aerobics or calisthenics.

Januari 27, 2010

kenangan terindah: iming-imink doank (36) : 270110

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 12:42 am

* JANUARY 26, 2010, 7:02 P.M. ET

IMF Sees 3.9% Global Growth


WASHINGTON—The International Monetary Fund said the global economy is set to rebound sharply this year, with 3.9% growth, but the U.S. and other rich countries aren’t likely to grow fast enough to reduce unemployment substantially.

Growth in what the IMF categorizes as “advanced countries” is expected to average only 2.1% this year and 2.4% in 2011, adjusted for inflation. “This growth will barely be enough to reduce the output gap and unemployment will remain high,” said chief IMF economist Olivier Blanchard.

The fastest engines of growth remain, as they have for years, in Asia. The IMF estimates that China’s growth rate will be 10% this year and nearly as fast in 2011, while India’s growth rate will be close to 8% both years. In both nations, as well as Brazil and Indonesia, the IMF said, domestic demand is expanding rapidly, making it easier for them to switch off government stimulus.

That isn’t the case in the rich countries where a recovery remains heavily dependent on monetary and fiscal support, the IMF said. The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.7% this year and then fall back to 2.4% growth next year, as government stimulus is reduced.

In Europe and Japan, the IMF forecasts growth will rise between 2010 and 2011, although from a lower base than the U.S. Germany is expected to grow 1.5% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011, while Britain expands 1.3% this year and 2.7% in 2011, and Japan grows 1.7% in 2010 and 2.2% in 2011.

Overall, the IMF forecast is far more bullish overall than it was just three months ago. The fund raised its estimate of global growth by 0.8 percentage points, to 3.9% for 2010, and predicts 2011 global growth will reach 4.3%. While that is still shy of the nearly 5% global growth rates from 2004 to 2007, it is a substantial improvement over 2008’s contraction of 0.8%—the first decline in global output since the end of World War II.

IMF senior economist Jörg Decressin said Asia’s growth was more rapid, the financial sector healed more quickly, and market confidence returned more speedily than the IMF anticipated in its October forecast.

Still, IMF economists noted a number of problems, including what it called “fragile” financial-sector stability. It urged banks globally to increase their capital to deal with commercial real-estate losses and the withdrawal of government guarantees. The huge increase in public-sector debt could undermine a recovery by pushing interest rates upward, the IMF said, or by spooking markets if nations appear likely to default on their debt.

IMF economists also raised the prospect that a surge in funds from wealthy countries could produce asset bubbles in Asia, but argued this wasn’t yet a widespread problem.

“We don’t see a serious risk of asset bubbles in China,” said Mr. Decressin, though he said there were some “localized” problems.

To deal with bubbles, the IMF said, some nations may have to shut down their stimulus programs more rapidly than anticipated, increase reserves and impose controls on money coming into the country.

In the mid- and late 1990s, the IMF campaigned for liberalizing the flow of money across borders, even proposing to make the free flow of capital part of its core mission. But the IMF dropped that initiative after the Asian crisis of 1997, when Malaysia and othercountries, wary of the effects of so-called hot money, restricted capital inflows with no ill effect. The global recession has made developing countries wary of counting too much on Western money. The IMF is coming to that view as well.

Januari 26, 2010

kenangan terindah: gejala demam dengue versi amrik … 260110

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 11:02 am

What are the signs and symptoms of dengue?

After being bitten by a mosquito carrying the virus, the incubation period ranges from three to 15 (usually five to eight) days before the signs and symptoms of dengue appear. Dengue starts with chills, headache, pain upon moving the eyes, and low backache. Painful aching in the legs and joints occurs during the first hours of illness. The temperature rises quickly as high as 104° F (40° C), with relative low heart rate (bradycardia) and low blood pressure (hypotension). The eyes become reddened. A flushing or pale pink rash comes over the face and then disappears. The glands (lymph nodes) in the neck and groin are often swollen.

Fever and other signs of dengue last for two to four days, followed by rapid drop in temperature (defervescence) with profuse sweating. This precedes a period with normal temperature and a sense of well-being that lasts about a day. A second rapid rise in temperature follows. A characteristic rash appears along with the fever and spreads from the extremities to cover the entire body except the face. The palms and soles may be bright red and swollen.

kenangan terindah: ekonomi antara teori dan praktik… JAUH ABIS

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 10:55 am

May the Best Theory Win
How economists are competing to make sense of our failed financial system.
By Rana Foroohar | NEWSWEEK
Published Jan 22, 2010
From the magazine issue dated Feb 1, 2010
Economists aren’t typically an emotional bunch. The dismal science attracts more sober-suited math geeks than poetic seekers. But in Atlanta earlier this month, the annual meeting of the American Economic Association was home to more soul-searching than number crunching. Hundreds of the profession’s most eminent thinkers turned out to hear panel after panel discuss how, exactly, they’d gotten things so wrong. Why did most of the world’s top economists fail to forecast the financial crisis? Should the teaching of economics in universities be entirely rethought? While past stars at the AEA have been conservative, finance–oriented intellectuals like Eugene Fama, this year’s meeting belonged to the liberal realists—Paul Krugman, Robert Shiller, and the man of the hour, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. Stiglitz delivered a keynote debunking the profession’s key tenet—namely, that markets can be trusted. Leading into the crisis, Stiglitz said, “markets were not efficient and not self-correcting, and now huge costs in the trillions of dollars are being borne by every part of society.”

The hand-wringing will continue this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Last year the buzz at Davos focused on how to pull the world back from the brink. But the key topic this time will be the crisis of conscience in economics itself. For the first time in decades, the profession is rethinking all the big questions. How do we create growth? How do we raise employment? How do we spread wealth? At least since Reagan, the consensus was that you just had to make the pie grow, and the best way to do that was to unshackle markets and investors, and then get out of the way. Wealth, and thus health, happiness, and all other good things, would eventually trickle down to all.
Now that this view has been proved false, a whole slew of new theories are competing to take its place. All are based, to one extent or another, on the idea that people are irrational actors, and that markets aren’t always efficient. And in many cases, the new theories blend economics with entirely different disciplines. The adaptive-markets hypothesis, for instance, proposes a new way of looking at the economy, and in particular the financial markets: through the prism of evolutionary biology. The idea is simple enough: adherents view the economy and financial markets as an ecosystem, with different “species” (hedge funds, investment banks) vying for “natural resources” (profits). These species adapt to one another, but also go through periods of sudden mutations (read: crises), which dramatically alter the makeup of the ecosystem. To advocates of this theory, cell biology could hold the key to a new, unifying theory of economics; policymakers like Larry Summers can craft better policy, they suggest, by considering all market players as parts of a living organism.
The theory, which first emerged in 2004 but has gained importance since the crisis, is now heralded in the international business press, and was recently employed by the Federal Reserve to explain the behavior of foreign-exchange markets. The idea of introducing Darwin to Adam Smith has captivated many of the professions’ best minds. “Cell biologists are much more interesting to me than economists right now,” says Yale professor Robert Shiller, one of the handful who predicted the crisis.
Another hybrid field that’s gaining steam is neuroeconomics, which combines brain science and economics: researchers map subjects’ brain patterns to confirm how economic decision making takes place. Their work provides a scientific grounding for the more familiar field of behavioral economics. This school of thought tries to account for the imperfect economic decision making of real people (like those of us who waste money by driving farther away to get “cheaper” gas). It’s been around for 30-odd years, and has recently produced numerous bestsellers (Freakonomics, Predictably Irrational, Nudge, etc). But post-crisis, it’s being taken much more seriously by academic economists themselves, even the more conservative ones, and under the Obama administration has started to have a measurable impact on policy.
The last time the world experienced this sort of reset was after the Great Depression. Prior to that, economists saw capitalism as a perfectly self–regulating system, an idea overturned by the crash. That’s when British economist John Maynard Keynes articulated all the ways in which government could and should help bail out an economy. Keynesian economics eventually lost its mojo in the 1970s, when an oil shock and political unrest led to high inflation and unemployment, something the theory didn’t account for. The changing of the ideological guard was complete when Ronald Reagan rode in to unshackle the rich, and inflation fighter Paul Volcker was replaced at the head of the Federal Reserve Bank by fizzy free-market enthusiast Alan Green-span. The laissez-faire “Chicago school” economics—embodied by University of Chicago professor Milton Friedman—would remain dominant for the next three decades.
The consensus didn’t change even under the Democratic administration of Bill Clinton. “I think that a couple of key moments [came] when James Carville said he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market, and [Treasury Secretary] Robert Rubin and his crowd began to overshadow the social-democratic faction led by [Labor Secretary] Robert Reich,” says Robert Johnson, a former fund manager for George Soros who now heads up economic policy for the Roosevelt Institute in New York. Financial economists built complex models that assumed that all you needed to know about a stock was already built into its price. Bubbles came and went in currency, tech stocks, and emerging markets, but they were seen as temporary and relatively harmless. When they popped, it was the job of central bankers to loosen monetary policy and get the party going again. Since the core assumption was that man is rational and markets are efficient, concern about risk took a back seat to concerns over how to make the good times last. It was a simple and elegant way of looking at the world, but one in which, as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has pointed out, beauty trumped truth.
The new economics is already having real-world impacts. Stiglitz, who won his Nobel for saying way back in 1986 that markets really weren’t that efficient (heresy at the time), is currently racking up frequent-flier miles advising governments around the world about how to restructure their financial systems. The country that has perhaps traveled the furthest in this respect is Britain. At the height of the bubble days, the City was arguably more freewheeling than Wall Street. Now Bank of England chief Mervyn King wants to split up banks “too big to fail” and talks about his concern over the “moral hazard” problem of bailouts. Chief regulator Adair Turner, who also says Britain’s financial industry is too big, wants to clamp down on financial innovation. He’s a big fan of Paul Woolley, a reformed financier now pouring millions into a research institute he founded at the London School of Economics. (Tellingly, it’s called the Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality.) In some ways, the City is seeing a return to the days of old-style British banking, in which concerns about risk helped balance the scramble for reward.
In the United States, Obama’s new regulation czar, Cass Sunstein, is a behavioral economist. The administration has used behavioral ideas to structure policies such as the stimulus package, and they will likely inform any new banking regulation, which Obama has indicated should be based on real data rather than abstract models. Behavioral economics is also behind the new push for prohibitive taxes on cigarettes, trans-fat-rich foods, and dirty energy usage. “Behavioral economics just isn’t radical for anyone under 40,” says Richard Thaler, coauthor (with Sunstein) of Nudge. Given that many of the up-and-coming stars of the profession are now behavioralists, the theory’s policy influence will only grow.
None of this means that the ideas of the Chicago School aren’t still useful; even irrationality can and should be mathematically modeled and studied. But they won’t carry the complete dominance they once did. No one knows which school of thought will come out on top next—it’s worth remembering that although the New Deal started in 1933, Keynes didn’t write his General Theory until 1936. And those looking for the next grand, unifying theory of economics should perhaps consider the possibility that the greatest lesson of this downturn is that we shouldn’t rely on just one tidy idea to encompass a world of human complexity. “We know that efficient-markets theory isn’t completely right, but neither is anything else,” says Thaler. The only real consensus view expressed at the AEA meeting was that economics is in for a difficult, yet potentially very fruitful period of questioning and cross-pollination. What finally emerges is likely to be more accurate than what came before—and less rational.
With Barrett Sheridan in New York and Stefan Theil in Berlin

kenangan terindah: inflasi bukan halangan investasi bo

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 10:25 am

Atasi Inflasi, Investasi Properti & Emas Saja
Selasa, 26 Januari 2010 – 15:42 wib
Widi Agustian – Okezone

Emas. Foto: Okezone.com
JAKARTA – Di tengah wacana peningkatan tingkat inflasi dan tingkat suku bunga yang kemungkinan besar terjadi pada 2010 ini, properti dan emas dapat menjadi instrumen investasi yang aman dari dampak inflasi.

Hal tersebut diungkapkan oleh Head of Research and Chief Economist Asia ING Comercial Banking Tim Condon saat teleconference dengan wartawan di kantor ING Securities Indonesia, Gedung BEI, Jakarta, Selasa (26/1/2010).

“Properti dan emas dianggap sebagai dua instrumen investasi yang dapat mengatasi dampak inflasi di kalangan investor di Indonesia,” jelasnya.

Dia menjelaskan jika investor akan terus memonitor tingkat inflasi dan suku bunga domestik di 2010. Survei menyatakan bahwa 50 persen dari investor memperkirakan inflasi akan naik pada triwulan I-2010.

Pada saat yang sama, 53 persen dari investor berpendapat bahwa suku bunga dalam negeri akan meingkat pada triwulan II. Pandangan investor Indonesia ini secara garis besar konsisten dengan pandangan para investor di negara Asia lainnya (kecuali Jepang), di mana 59 persen dari mereka memperkirakan inflasi meningkat di triwulan I-2010.

“Para investor diperkirakan akan memperhatikan dengan seksama kebijakan moneter yang akan diperketat pada 2010. Walaupun Indonesia mencatat tingkat inflasi yang rendah di 2009 dikarenakan melemahnya harga komoditas, inflasi akan kembali meningkat di awal 2010, dan bertahan pada kisaran 5-7 persen selama 2010. Kami perkirakan tingkat suku bunga akan meningkat pada semester pertama 2010,” papar Tim.

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