eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

April 30, 2009

plis de jangan lebay: IHSG 1700 kebetulan mampir…

Filed under: Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 7:51 am

… akhirnya datang juga: IHSG 1700 … berarti masih ada 61 poin lagi menuju KENYATAAN PREDIKSI GW KEBETULAN LAGI TERJADI … walau pun JAUH LEBIH CEPAT DARIPADA YANG GW DUGA … well, gpp khan… namanya juga prediksi, tidak ada yang 100% AKURAT bo (maksud gw, angka 1761 itu untuk TUTUP TAHUN 2009) … ntar Taleb ga berani tulis buku lagi dong, kasihan dong doi … he3 … Come Taleb, Write More on DUMBEST PREDICTION IN THE MARKETS … he3 … 


April 29, 2009

plis de jangan LEBAY: tanpa pemimpin, tanpa krisis bo…he3

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:10 pm

BILL GEORGE April 28, 2009, 3:04AM EST

The Economic Crisis Will Shape New Leaders

Today’s global meltdown is training a new generation of managers to build lasting value through innovation and create sustainable growth

Maybe there’s a silver lining in the global economic meltdown after all. I believe all the economic misery, financial disasters, and millions of lost jobs will produce a new generation of leaders who are battle-tested in crisis and ready to get the global economy pointed in a healthier long-term direction.

Having learned the lessons of this crisis, these new leaders will think differently than their predecessors about how to build great institutions. As President Obama said during the Presidential campaign, “I don’t want just to get us out of Iraq. We need to change the mentality that got us there in the first place.” The same lesson applies to healing our economic ills: We need to change the mentality that got us there in the first place.”

This global meltdown wasn’t caused by subprime mortgages, credit default swaps, or even excessive greed. These are only symptoms of the real problem. The root cause of this crisis was failed leadership.


The Baby Boom generation of leaders did not comport itself well in the years leading up to the crisis. These leaders became slaves to the mantra of maximizing short-term shareholder value, and got stunning rewards for financial transactions that ultimately destroyed more wealth than they produced. As Jack Welch said recently, “Shareholder value as a strategy is the dumbest idea in the world. Shareholder value is a result, not a strategy. …Your main constituencies are your employees, your customers, and your products.”

The baby boomer leaders found they could not keep this game going, no matter how much risk they took, and it all came crashing down. Many knew their activities weren’t sustainable, but they kept dancing faster and faster until the music stopped. In so doing, they let self-interest trump their responsibility to create lasting value, and destroyed great institutions in the process.

We need a new generation of leaders who have learned the lessons of this crisis the hard way—by being in the midst of it. These leaders will bring a new mentality to building lasting value through innovation and growth that creates sustainable wealth in the global economy. Their rewards will be for performance, not for transactions. This economic crisis is providing the best training ground to develop a new generation of leaders. MBA programs don’t teach you how. Crisis-simulation exercises are just that—simulations, not the real thing.


Leaders who never get tested until they reach the top may be unable to cope with a crisis. Some buckle under the pressure. Others become immobilized. Still others make big mistakes, but learn from them to become better leaders the next time around.

When I was a newly minted general manager of Litton Microwave Cooking at the age of 27, I encountered my first major crisis when the Food ” Drug Administration threatened to pull our only product, microwave ovens, off the market. We learned a painful lesson about the importance of adhering to proposed government safety standards, lessons that proved highly beneficial in my years as CEO of Medtronic.

An old English proverb says, “A smooth sea never made a skilled mariner.” Managing a stable business is a lot easier than leading through a crisis. Growth periods don’t test your intestinal fortitude like a crisis, nor do they determine whether you will stay on track in the heat of battle. As in war, crises test leaders to their limits because the outcome is rarely predictable. They not only have to use all their wisdom to guide their organizations through it, but must dig deep inside themselves to find the courage to keep going forward. As General Electric’s (GE) Jeff Immelt said about a crisis he faced earlier in his career, “Leadership is a long journey into your own soul.”


Some great leaders are already emerging from this crisis. Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Lloyd Blankfein (on whose board of directors I serve) and JPMorgan’s (JPM) Jamie Dimon have proven their leadership not only in guiding their firms through the crisis, but by showing the way toward sustainable capital markets.

In the corporate world, IBM’s (IBM) Sam Palmisano, Avon’s (AVP) Andrea Jung, Xerox’s (XRX) Anne Mulcahy, Novartis’ (NVS) Dan Vasella, PepsiCo’s (PEP) Indra Nooyi, and Immelt are demonstrating the kind of visionary leadership that will reshape the U.S. economy. Behind them are young leaders stepping up to the top roles, like 43-year-olds Andrew Witte of pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Kasper Rorstad of German chemical maker Henkel.

Robert F. Kennedy once said, “Few will have the greatness to bend history itself. But each of us can work to change a small portion of events, and in the total of all these acts will be written the history of this generation.” Just as the “greatest generation” did in World War II, this new generation of leaders is learning leadership lessons they will use the rest of their lives. It’s time to let them take over leadership and focus their organizations on pressing problems that have been festering for a decade. By concentrating on health care, education, energy, and the environment, and job creation through innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship, they will build a sustainable global economy while making the world a better place for all its citizens.

As they do so, they will write the history of this generation.

Bill George, the former chair and CEO of Medtronic, is professor of management practice at Harvard Business School. His new book, 7 Lessons for Leading in Crisis will be published in September. He serves on the boards of Goldman Sachs and ExxonMobil. businessweek

plis de jangan LEBAY: ekh, gunting terus diasah yo…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:03 pm

Rabu, 29 April 2009 | 17:05

JAKARTA. Kalau pada lelang pekan lalu (22/4) tingkat suku bunga SBI satu bulan sebesar 7,64%, pada lelang Rabu (29/4) sudah turun menjadi 7,59%. Artinya makin mendekati suku bunga acuan BI Rate yang sebesar 7,5%.

Tidak hanya itu, bunga SBI tiga bulan juga turun dari 8,05414% menjadi 7,94628. Lalu untuk SBI enam bulan, turun dari 8,47% menjadi 8,32%.

Pada lelang kemarin BI juga tak banyak menyerap likuiditas di perbankan. Tercatat total penawaran yang masuk pada lelang Rabu (29/4) mencapai Rp 24,6 triliun dengan kisaran penawaran bunga antara 7,25%-7,7%. BI akhirnya menyerap Rp 24,01 triliun.

Sementara untuk SBI jangka waktu enam bulan, permintaan bank hanya sekitar Rp 6,44 triliun dengan kisaran bunga antara 7,8%-8,10%. BI menyerap Rp 5,84 triliun

Sementara untuk SBI jangka waktu enam bulan, peminatnya mencapai Rp 8,8 triliun, atau tertinggi sejak Januari 2009 lalu. Penawaran bunga pada kisaran 7,95% hingga 8,5%. Tapi BI hanya mengambil Rp 6,66 triliun. Ini menggambarkan, likuiditas perbankan berlimpah, sehingga mereka berani menempatkan dana di SBI enam bulan.

Kemarin BI juga melelang SBI Syariah, dengan tingkat imbal hasil sebesar 7,58779%. Tapi minat perbankan sangat kecil, yakni hanya Rp 370 miliar, sehingga BI mengambil seluruhnya. Maklum, bank syariah saat ini lebih getol menyalurkan buat pembiayaan.

Syamsul Ashar

plis de jangan lebay: resesi BENERAN, tapi kok…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 2:37 pm

market watch: 

The two-quarter contraction is the worst in more than 50 years. Since the 1947, the economy had never contracted by more than 4% for two consecutive quarters. With a 0.5% drop in the third quarter of 2008, it’s the first time the economy has contracted for three consecutive quarters since 1975.
In the past four quarters, the economy has fallen 2.6%, the biggest year-over-year decline since 1982.
the guardian: 

US still deep in recession

Economists had been forecasting a drop of 4.6% to 4.9% in the first quarter of this year

The American economy is in a worse state than economists feared with businesses dropping their spending plans, despite tentative signs of a pick-up in consumer confidence.

American gross domestic product (GDP) – which tracks goods and services output within the country – dropped 6.1% over the first three months of the year, compared with 6.3% in the last three months of 2008.

It is the largest first-quarter decline since the late 1950s.

plis de jangan lebaY; emangnya MURAH, mahal bo…

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 1:26 pm

15/04/2009 – 11:45
Saatnya Borong Properti

INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Pengamat properti Panangian Simanungkalit mengatakan saat ini adalah waktu yang tepat untuk membeli properti meski kondisi ekonomi global belum membaik.

“Hal ini juga dapat dilihat dari permintaan properti yang terus naik, padahal di negara lain justru mengalami penurunan,” kata Panangian di Jakarta, Rabu (15/4), dalam seminar yang diselenggarakan Kuningan City.

Menurutnya, kondisi di Indonesia memang terbalik dibanding negara lain, meski tingkat bunga bank masih tinggi akan tetapi permintaan masih sangat besar.

“Keadaan ini dapat dilihat dari pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang menurut Menteri Keuangan dapat mencapai 4,5%, sementara negara tetangga justru mengalami minus,” ujarnya.

Dia memperkirakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia masih akan terus berlangsung hingga empat tahun mendatang, bahkan pada 2012 dapat mencapai 7%.

Panangian mengatakan sebelum memutuskan membeli properti ada sejumlah syarat yang harus menjadi pegangan mulai dari sumber pendanaan, reputasi pengembang, lokasi, serta harga.

Mengenai lokasi, Panangian menyarankan di pusat kota seperti Jalan Prof. Dr. Satrio, Gatot Subroto, Rasuna Said Kuningan, Sudirman – Thamrin, Permata Hijau, dan Kelapa Gading.

“Ciri lokasi yang baik dapat dilihat dari trafik masuk dan keluar di lokasi itu lebih banyak yang masuk. Lokasi ini dapat menjadi pilihan untuk menjadikan properti sebagai pilihan investasi,” ujarnya.

Keunggulan di Kuningan merupakan kawasan kedutaan besar negara-negara sahabat, kawasan campuran hunian dan komersial (mix use), kawasan belanja, serta cocok juga bagi pejalan kaki.

Panangian berpesan untuk tidak segan berinvestasi dalam properti karena harganya akan terus mengalami kenaikan, sehingga kalaupun belum ditempati tetap akan memberikan keuntungan misalnya disewakan atau dijual kembali.

Pengembalian investasi di sektor properti dapat mencapai 100%-120%, katanya.

Strategi untuk membeli properti, sarannya, adalah menggunakan kas lunak, dan setelah harga membaik kredit di-refinancing menggunakan dana perbankan, sehingga pembeli akan mendapatkan keuntungan. [tra]

plis de jangan LEBAY: bom (di balik bank2) WAKTU…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 11:28 am

Waspada pada Praktek Patgulipat Perbankan

Eko B. Supriyanto
Penulis adalah Direktur Biro Riset Infobank

MASIH adakah bank yang akan ditutup lagi? Itu pertanyaan yang wajar setelah kasus pencabutan izin Bank IFI dan pengambilalihan Bank Century hanya dalam lima bulan. Penutupan Bank Global hampir empat tahun lalu juga masih menyisakan trauma. Pada saat itu, Bank Indonesia dan lembaga rating memberikan label sangat sehat untuk Global. Faktanya, Bank Global menyembunyikan bom waktu, dan akhirnya meledak.

Data Bank Indonesia memang menunjukkan kondisi perbankan masih aman. Kuda-kuda perbankan yang tecermin dalam capital adequacy ratio (CAR) masih relatif kuat, sekitar 16 persen, jauh di atas ketentuan Bank Indonesia yang 8 persen, juga Basel II yang 12 persen. Kredit seret (nonperforming loan) juga hanya 4,3 persen. Masih di bawah target indikatif BI sebesar 5 persen. Kondisi likuiditas pun mulai membaik, dana pihak ketiga juga terus tumbuh. Hampir tidak ada soal yang mengkhawatirkan.

Namun, tetap harus ada yang diwaspadai. Catatan Biro Riset Infobank menunjukkan, kendati situasi perbankan secara indikatif aman, ada ancaman serius terhadap perbankan Indonesia. Pertama, pelemahan ekonomi akibat penurunan permintaan, baik barang maupun jasa. Kedua, penurunan daya beli masyarakat, baik karena kenaikan harga maupun penurunan pendapatan.

Ketiga, masih belum normalnya nadi likuiditas di bank-bank. Hal itu bisa dilihat dari tetap dilayaninya nasabah yang meminta suku bunga tinggi. Keempat, praktek-praktek pemilik bank atau pengurus bank yang tidak bisa dideteksi oleh Bank Indonesia—entah karena saking canggihnya bankir nakal menyembunyikan borok atau karena BI memang selalu terlambat. Buktinya, setiap bank ditutup atau diambil alih, baik sebelum krisis pada 1997/1998 maupun sesudahnya, selalu ada patgulipat (moral hazard).

Persoalan yang terakhir itulah yang paling berbahaya. Selama 20 tahun ini, kematian bank pada umumnya terjadi karena kejahatan yang dilakukan pemilik bank atau direksi. Dan tidak ada bank yang mati akibat persaingan normal karena setiap bank mempunyai segmen tertentu. Modus penggarongan bank bermacam-macam: kredit fiktif, kredit ke grup sendiri, atau pemberian kredit yang tidak transparan. Belakangan muncul praktek baru yang juga sangat membahayakan bank, yakni transaksi derivatif.

Akibatnya, bank-bank tersebut kesulitan likuiditas, mengalami negative spread, dan kemampuan mencetak laba juga turun. Semua masalah itu berujung pada penurunan rasio kecukupan modal. Jika pemilik tidak mampu menyuntikkan modal atau tidak ada investor yang berminat masuk, pilihan bagi bank itu hanya satu: likuidasi.

Sepanjang tidak ada krisis, dan aliran likuiditas masih normal, tidak mudah membongkar praktek-praktek buruk perbankan ini. Kejahatan itu sering kali baru terungkap jika bank tersebut menghadapi masalah atau bahkan ketika mereka sudah ditutup. Keberadaan direktur kepatuhan atau komisaris independen dalam manajemen perbankan pada kenyataannya tidak banyak membantu.

Enam bulan ini adalah waktu yang krusial. Sampai laporan keuangan perbankan per Juni keluar, kondisi perbankan kemungkinan masih lumayan bagus. Kekhawatiran akan ada bank yang menyusul Bank IFI bisa dikesampingkan. Tapi, setelah itu cerita tentang perbankan akan berbeda sama sekali. Dampak krisis global kemungkinan besar mulai dirasakan perbankan. Ekonomi akan jauh menyusut.

Mundurnya perekonomian sudah pasti akan membuat potensi terjadinya kredit macet membesar. Indikasinya sudah mulai terlihat, antara lain peningkatan cadangan untuk meng-cover kredit bermasalah, dan naiknya rasio kredit seret. Jika saat ini kredit bermasalah sektor konsumsi yang meningkat, nantinya sektor usaha produktif juga bakal naik. Krisis global juga mengakibatkan dana menjadi langka dan makin mahal. Likuiditas masih akan jadi kendala.

Kondisi perbankan akan makin berbahaya jika terjadi moral hazard oleh pemilik atau manajemen bank. Pengalaman kita dalam 20 tahun terakhir menunjukkan, tiga hal itulah yang membuat perbankan mengalami krisis. Dan krisis perbankan merupakan pintu masuk bagi krisis ekonomi yang lebih besar. Karena itu, salah satu tumpuan terbesar untuk menghindari terjadinya moral hazard adalah keberanian dan kecermatan Bank Indonesia dalam mengawasi perbankan.

Salah satu yang bisa dijadikan indikasi bank bermasalah adalah penggelembungan aset yang terlalu cepat. Pada hakikatnya, perbankan bukanlah sprinter, mereka lebih tepat disamakan dengan pelari maraton, yang harus selalu memasukkan faktor kehati-hatian dan daya tahan.

plis de jangan lebay: kebijakan TETAP AGRESIF lah…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 11:26 am

Fed seen holding rates and policy steady

Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:25am EDT

By Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – With signs the deep U.S. economic swoon may be easing, Federal Reserve policy makers appear ready to hold off new measures to flood the economy with money while keeping interest rates steady near zero on the final day of a two-day meeting on Wednesday.

plis de jangan LEBAY: akhirnya… terjadi juga…

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 11:17 am

Texas baby first flu death reported outside Mexico
Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:05am EDT
By Jason Lange

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – A baby in Texas became the first confirmed death outside Mexico on Wednesday from the new H1N1 flu strain.

A U.S. government official said a 23-month-old child in the southern state had died from the virus, which Germany said it had found in three cases — the eighth country to do so.

plis de jangan lebay: IMF makin MAHAL makin MANJA…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:43 am

Apr 28, 2009

IMF lost on the high seas
By Hossein Askari

This past weekend, finance ministers and central bank governors held their spring meetings in Washington. They yet again achieved little or nothing in response to what may turn out to be the worse current financial crisis in recent history, with adverse fallout that can be expected to come for years. Nor did they do anything to address the underlying global threat that will strike again and again.

The finance ministers made some noise about banking and financial reform, and patted themselves on the back for their decision earlier this month at the Group of 20 meeting in London to increase the resources of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But they forgot to discuss what the IMF’s role needs to be to safeguard global financial stability.

More money in the hands of the IMF to do what it has been doing will just create a bigger crisis in the future. As guardian of the world economy, the fund has told small developing countries what to do but has not dared to tell the United States, the economy that can has brought the world to near collapse. What good is the IMF, with a heavier load of gold on board, but a ship that does not know where it is going and with a captain that has no authority on the high seas?

Most importantly. the ministers missed the one common factor that has been the catalyst to all financial panics over the last two centuries – excessive credit creation.

A world financial system, based on reserve currencies and floating exchange rates, faces unparalleled instability. The sky is the limit when it comes to credit creation in reserve currency countries. Interest rates have been effectively pushed to zero by reserve currency central banks. The floodgates of rapidly expanding money supply have been opened wide, and reserve currency central banks have decided to adopt unorthodox policies, that is, unlimited printing of money, which some noted economists have rightly called counterfeiting.

The world economy has recently experienced the worst commodity inflation in years, triggering food and energy riots and bringing the world economy to a standstill. The credit expansion has been so fast over the past decade that it has pushed the national banking system in a number of countries towards bankruptcy. There is little likelihood that over-indebted households will repay their mortgage and consumer debt.

While G-20 leaders in London and finance ministers in Washington discussed regulation and supervision of financial systems, major central banks have been printing trillions of dollars, euros and pounds and injecting a frightening degree of liquidity into the financial system. There is no banking regulation or safety guidelines that can prevent the chaos that is likely to ensue.

The US has decidedly embarked on the most expansionary fiscal and monetary policy in its history and has completely abandoned any notion of financial and fiscal discipline. These demand expansion policies are predicated on the wrong diagnosis by US policymakers, namely that the economic crisis is due to an excess of savings and therefore a lack of demand, thus completely ignoring the large US fiscal and external deficits and food and energy inflation.

The US household savings rate was practically at zero in 2003-2007, and US national savings rate was negative during the same period. The Barack Obama economic team, including National Economic Council director Lawrence Summers, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, does not recognize that the financial crisis has been triggered by the inability of over-indebted households to pay mortgages and consumer loans and that banks have gone bankrupt because of excesses in credit and demand.

Unconscious of prevailing external deficits, they seem to believe that the crisis was due to an abundance in consumer goods, including food and petroleum.

Most US policymakers are university professors; they think in terms of classroom models and have little understanding or grasp of markets, economic reality and facts. US policymakers are puzzled by the rising unemployment and do not appreciate its monetary cause. With core inflation stacked at 1-2%, US policymakers see total price stability and do not see an impact of inflation on rising unemployment.

They believe US unemployment is a Keynesian phenomenon that can be simply eradicated through fiscal and monetary expansion. Accordingly, Bernanke and Summers predict full recovery by the end of 2009. But with external deficits rising to excessive levels in the last decade, the US economy has simply lost its capacity to save and grow. Our prediction of over six months ago of double-digit unemployment in the US will come to pass, but we still may have a chance to deflect years of stagflation if we act now.

Despite unsustainable fiscal deficits and household indebtedness, the Obama team has dwarfed George W Bush’s financial disorder and has launched a US$787 billion stimulus package, a $275 billion housing subsidy, and created a budget with a deficit of $1.85 trillion, or 13% of gross domestic product. US government bailouts are reported at $12 trillion. Geithner announced a public-private bank with a capital of $1 trillion to buy toxic assets, called by economist Joseph Stiglitz as “cash for trash” and by fellow economist Jeffrey Sachs as “a robbery bank”. It is a plan that will favor Wall Street at the expense of Maine Street, socializing losses and privatizing gains.

Bernanke has put in place a $1 trillion lending facility for consumers, allocated $600 billion for housing, and purchase programs of government debt. Taken together, Bernanke’s unorthodox measures are projected to inject an additional $3.5 trillion in liquidity in 2009.

Because of extraordinary borrowing demands by the Treasury and the announcement of Treasury purchases by the Fed, Bernanke can no longer reverse any of his liquidity increase. The Fed’s purchase of long-term government debt is reminiscent of the period just before the Federal Reserve-Treasury Accord of 1951 when the Fed had lost its independence and was forced to keep extremely low interest rates. Those low rates eroded savings and growth and kept inflation high.

Hyperinflation is in the works – not today, but it will come, just you wait. The incredible US fiscal and monetary expansion will tax the rest of the world heavily, a world that uses the dollar as a reserve currency. The US government will extract a huge seignorage benefit for its currency as a reserve asset. It will shift the cost of bankruptcies and bailouts to dollar holders. In case of a stampede out of the dollar, the real value of dollar holdings could simply evaporate in real terms.

The IMF has been oblivious to the fact that global real economic growth reached 5-6% in 2004-2007 because of a fast expansion in demand that created pressure on food, oil and most other commodities. The IMF refuses to recognize that the financial crisis is a bankruptcy crisis, that debtors are mainly households and that most loans have either been totally lost or their collateral has depreciated substantially.

Based on misguided analysis, the IMF has called for firing up fiscal stimuli and printing more and more money. The G-20 has called for increasing IMF resources and more liquidity creation out of thin air through a new allocation of special drawing rights so that developing countries can increase their imports and help reduce unemployment in industrial countries. Those countries will fall anew into the debt trap and impair their quest for economic development.

Would the current financial crisis have erupted had the world economy been under a pure gold system or, more realistically, been under a symmetrical system with no country’s currency serving as a reserve currency for the world? The answer is
provided by the exit of the UK from the gold standard in 1931, followed by the US in 1971.

Gold imposed a financial discipline that governments had always to circumvent and therefore pave the way for financial instability. Economic history for the 19th century showed that episodes of financial instability erupted in some industrial countries, mainly following period of wars; however, financial crises never became contagious as each country’s financial system was sheltered through the gold standard from financial shocks affecting another country.

The current financial crisis would not have surged under a gold standard, simply because liquidity cannot be expanded arbitrarily

and without limit by central banks. Abundant liquidity causes unsafe credit expansion and is propitious for speculation. Gold outflows from a deficit country force an increase in interest rates and contraction in credit in that country and triggers an adjustment mechanism known as monetary approach to the balance of payments. While a gold standard system is no longer practical, a system that embodies monetary discipline, a feature of the historic gold standards, is imperative today.

Under the present regime of floating exchange rates, the US has run large fiscal and external deficits and pushed real interest rates to a negative range. These deficits double the increase in liquidity. They allow liquidity to increase in countries that receive dollars in payments. Next, central banks place their dollar holdings in the US, providing thus a further basis for credit expansion in the US. Moreover, in a world with flexible rates and high capital mobility, these same policies are, or will be, felt the world over.

Financial institutions in the US have extremely limited capacity to place this liquidity in a productive way; in view of the short-term character of foreign holdings, US banks find themselves compelled to push this liquidity onto US consumers and subprime markets. In the 1970s, abundant liquidity was pushed on to middle-income countries leading to a severe debt crisis in these countries.

Could Bernanke set interest rates at zero and engage in non-orthodox money instruments under a gold standard, or any system with discipline? The Fed lost tons of its gold reserves when it attempted expansionary policy in 1950s and 1960s. Because of these losses, the US was compelled to renege on the gold standard in 1971. Hence, under a gold regime, the Fed would loose all its gold reserves if it set interest rates below an equilibrium level dictated by the real economy.

The same truth would apply to Japan. The Japanese central bank would have never been able to set interest rates near zero under a gold standard. It would immediately loose all its gold reserves to private speculators. Under the present system, Bernanke can set interest rates freely at zero and inject trillions of dollars as he wishes with a stroke of pen. His actions will have long-run disruptive effects on financial stability and employment. His actions have already triggered massive unemployment and are spreading despair and misery among millions of US families. Zero interest rates cause huge distortions and will dissipate real savings and growth.

Amidst this financial chaos, China has called for the creation of a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world’s standard, proposing a sweeping overhaul of global finance that reflects the developing countries’ growing unhappiness with the US role in the world economy. The unusual proposal, made by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, is part of China’s increasingly assertive approach to shaping the global response to the financial crisis.

China Premier Wen Jiabao recently voiced concern about the financial and economic outlook for the US and for the safety of its US Treasury bills and bonds. The Chinese concern is shared by all central banks that hold vast US dollar reserves and US securities.

The Chinese proposal could be considered a distress call, seeing the unavoidable happening, namely huge losses in the real value of its dollar-denominated assets. A world reserve currency was proposed in 1943 by John Maynard Keynes, along with the creation of a world central bank. Keynes’s proposal was defeated in favor of the 1944 Bretton-Woods agreement of fixed exchange rates. A world currency has been repeatedly revived by prominent economists such as Robert Triffin, Jacques Rueff, Robert Mundell, Paul Volcker, and Stiglitz. While a domestic currency imposes a financial constraint on economic entities such as households and firms, a world reserve currency would impose discipline on national central banks, in the same way as gold did prior to 1914.

It is high time that the world community saved itself from unruly reserve currency central banks and financial chaos. There will be forces that will fight the creation of a world currency. Yet, the benefits for world economy at large could be far reaching in terms of financial stability, curtailment of exchange rates instability, and growth of trade and employment.

The US could ironically be the biggest beneficiary of this proposal, dwarfing US seinorage benefits. The US economy over the past four decades has become a market for the rest of the world and in so doing has lost its manufacturing base and its competitiveness. Such was indeed the case of mercantilist countries that enjoyed large discoveries of gold and became pure importers when other countries were pushing on with their industrial revolution.

More than any decision that could be adopted, the adoption of a world currency would be symbol of the most far-reaching and responsible international cooperation. Rueff, the French economist, noted that the Genoa conference in 1922 abolished the gold standard. He called for an international conference to re-establish a common currency; his preference was gold.

Just as the world community convened in Bretton-Woods to establish a fixed exchange regime, there is now an urgent need for a conference to establish a world central bank, a world currency and a new international payments system. Such a central bank would be under no fiscal pressure or any mandate to insure full-employment or temper with interest rates. It’s goal would be to provide a safe and stable currency that would grow at rate to accommodate steady and sustained economic growth and prosperity.

Absent this fundamental reform of the world payments system, and in view of the scary financial disorder in reserve currency countries, the world economy may have no choice except to seek refuge in gold. Bernanke, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet, or Bank of England governor Mervyn King can instantaneously create trillions of dollars in fake money; but they cannot create even one gram of gold.

They will rob millions of workers and pensioners of their real and hard won gains and spread misery around the world. Their monetary injection is a pure tax on holders of money and amounts to a redistribution of wealth in favor of debtors. The more they inflate the economy, the more they will deflate real activity and spread unemployment and despair.

Finally, I must rekindle a debate on the the payments system and the reserve currency that the late Nobel Laureate, Franco Modigliani, and I proposed in 1971. We initially made our proposal before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and elaborated on its soundness in 1973, especially in limiting the international propagation of economic shocks. I still believe that it is the best system for global financial stability and sustained economic growth.

Hossein Askari is professor of international business and international affairs at George Washington University.

plis de jangan lebay: bukan euforia, tapi balas dendam lage…

Filed under: Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 3:27 am

secara teknikal ada gejala jenuh beli, namun segera disusul saat beli sedikit … tapi gejala pagi ini memang investor agak sulit dibendung sentimen positifnya … liat aja dah … batas resistensi sih 1630 … tembus ga yo…

… tembus juga akhirnya:  http://sahambumi.wordpress.com/2009/04/29/biasanya-kalo-tajam-nyusul-tumpul-dah-he3/

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