eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Februari 28, 2009

terlanjur CINta: elit, elit, elit, semoga ga pelit… he3

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 1:21 pm

Mama Lauren: Ekonomi Sulit, Dolar Tembus Rp 12.000

… he3, kompas.com, dasar rasional… oops… irasional, maksudnya… beti seh… cuma beda huruf i seh….
“Selain musibah yang datang silih berganti, kehidupan masyarakat masih sulit. Ekonomi masih susah, bahkan dollar tembus Rp 12.000. Tapi itu angka maksimal,” katanya.

terlanjur cinta: Kebahagiaan itu GRATIS bo

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 1:18 pm

Happiness is contagious, research finds

A study of the relationships of nearly 5,000 people tracked for decades in the Framingham Heart Study shows that good cheer spreads through social networks of nearby family, friends and neighbors.

They say misery loves company, but the same may be even more true of happiness.

In a study published online today in the British Medical Journal, scientists from Harvard University and UC San Diego showed that happiness spreads readily through social networks of family members, friends and neighbors.

Knowing someone who is happy makes you 15.3% more likely to be happy yourself, the study found. A happy friend of a friend increases your odds of happiness by 9.8%, and even your neighbor’s sister’s friend can give you a 5.6% boost.

Your emotional state depends not just on actions and choices that you make, but also on actions and choices of other people, many of which you don’t even know,” said Dr. NicholasA. Christakis, a physician and medical sociologist at Harvard who co-wrote the study.

The research is part of a growing trend to measure well-being as a crucial component of public health. Scientists have documented that people who describe themselves as happy are likely to live longer, even if they have a chronic illness.

The new study “has serious implications for our understanding of the determinants of health and for the design of policies and interventions,” wrote psychologist Andrew Steptoe of University College London and epidemiologist Ana Diez Roux of University of Michigan in an accompanying editorial.

Christakis and UCSD political scientist James H. Fowler examined the relationships of nearly 5,000 people who were tracked for decades as part of the landmark Framingham Heart Study.

They discovered that happy people in close geographic proximity were most effective in spreading their good cheer. They also found the happiest people were at the center of large social networks.

In many regards, they concluded, happiness is like a contagious disease.

We know people who are most susceptible to HIV are people who have lots of partners,” Fowler said. “This is the same thing.”

This isn’t the first evidence that emotions can spread like a virus. Studies have found that waiters who offer service with a smile are rewarded with bigger tips. On the flip side, having a mildly depressed roommate made college freshmen increasingly depressed themselves.

Fowler and Christakis thought they could document the spread of happiness more convincingly by studying the copious records of participants in the Framingham study, a massive effort launched by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute in 1948 to find common causes of cardiovascular disease. Participants gave researchers the names of their parents, spouses, siblings, children and close friends, including many who were also study volunteers. That allowed the researchers to track multiple relationships for each participant out to several degrees of separation.

Fowler and Christakis focused on 4,739 people who were part of the second-generation cohort that joined the study in 1971, in part because many of them had parents and children in other cohorts. The researchers rounded out their networks by using home addresses to locate neighbors and employment information to identify co-workers. Altogether, they constructed a social network that included 12,067 study volunteers who were linked to each other through 53,228 ties.

In earlier studies of the network, Fowler and Christakis showed that obesity and smoking spread among groups of friends and relatives.

To assess happiness, the researchers relied on how much the volunteers said they agreed with four statements like “I was happy” and “I enjoyed life.” The questions were asked three times between 1983 and 2003.

The results were striking:

A happy friend who lives within a half-mile makes you 42% more likely to be happy yourself. If that same friend lives two miles away, his impact drops to 22%. Happy friends who are more distant have no discernible impact, according to the study.

Similarly, happy siblings make you 14% more likely to be happy yourself, but only if they live within one mile. Happy spouses provide an 8% boost – if they live under the same roof. Next-door neighbors who are happy make you 34% more likely to be happy too, but no other neighbors have an effect, even if they live on the same block.

We suspect emotions spread through frequency of contact,” Fowler said. As a result, he said, people who live too far away to be seen on a regular basis don’t have much effect.

The one exception was co-workers, perhaps because something in the work environment prevented their happiness from spreading, the study found. The research was funded by the National Institute on Aging and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Shigehiro Oishi, a University of Virginia psychologist who studies the causes and consequences well-being, said the importance of geography was a profound finding.

Although we are connected with friends and family members who live far away via cellphone and the Internet, these results indicate that there is nothing like a face-to-face interaction,” Oishi said. “We are told to get connected by cellphone companies, but in order to get connected you really have to live close by and interact face to face.”

Fowler and Christakis said they didn’t know the mechanism by which happiness spreads. One possibility is that happy people spread their good fortune directly by being generous with their time and money. Evolution may have encouraged infectious happiness if it helped hominids and early humans enhance their social bonds so they could form successful groups, the researchers said.

UC Irvine sociologist Katherine Faust, who studies social networks, said the study might overstate the role of social ties in transmitting happiness. Many of the Framingham volunteers are the parents, siblings and children of other volunteers, and their propensity toward happiness could be grounded in their genes, she said.

But Richard Suzman, director of behavioral and social research at the National Institute on Aging, said Fowler’s and Christakis’ work was persuasive enough to force policymakers to rethink the importance of social ties when contemplating happiness or obesity or smoking.

You can’t just treat individuals; you have to treat networks or communities,” he said.

Kaplan is a Times staff writer.

terlanjur cinta: the economist is not a tabloid… yeah

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 11:58 am

Haring away

Feb 26th 2009 
From The Economist print edition

Burnished by bad news, gold looks like a good each-way bet

IT IS 1979 and Harry “Rabbit” Angstrom, the hero of John Updike’s series of novels, is explaining to his wife why he has just spent more than $11,000 on 30 gold krugerrands. “The beauty of gold is, it loves bad news,” he says. Three decades later, gold is once again thriving on despair. Before Christmas, a troy ounce could be bought for around $800. By the third week in February, gold was trading at close to $1,000 an ounce.

A surge in demand for gold as an investment lies behind the jump in prices. Flows into exchange-traded funds, which buy and store gold for their shareholders, rose from 105 tonnes in January to 208 tonnes in the first three weeks of February, according to Suki Cooper at Barclays Capital. At that rate, inflows will soon surpass the total of 322 tonnes for the whole of 2008. Buying by investors has more than made up for a slump in gold-jewellery purchases in key markets, such as India and Turkey, where higher prices and wilting exchange rates have crushed demand.

People have long viewed gold, rightly or wrongly, as a hedge against high inflation and a weak dollar. So when the gold price briefly broke through the $1,000 mark in March last year, it was easily explained by fears that rising commodity prices (and, in America, a weak dollar) would feed inflation. An earlier run-up in gold prices, between 2002 and 2005, coincided with a sustained fall in the dollar. But now gold is strong even as the dollar thrives and economies face deflation.

Gold’s recent progress seems to be a response to generalised fears of economic turmoil. When supposedly safe savings vehicles, such as bank deposits, look shaky and offer scant returns, gold has greater appeal as an alternative store of wealth. It also looks like an attractive each-way bet. If drastic cuts in interest rates work too well, that will fuel inflation. If they do not work, prices of assets, such as stocks and houses, will sink further.

Like Updike’s protagonist in “Rabbit is Rich”, the new wave of gold investors typically have wealth to preserve, according to Adrian Ash at BullionVault, an online service for gold investors. “Gold is something you buy if you have something to lose,” he says. What links today’s gold fever with the 1970s rush is negative real deposit rates. Many savers now prefer a claim on gold in a vault to one on cash in the bank. There is less risk that a counterparty blows up, and the “carrying cost” of gold in terms of lost interest is, in any case, vanishing.

How high might the gold price go? Gold bugs talk excitedly about it reaching $2,300, which would match the January 1980 peak in real terms (see chart). Already the gold price is above its average since 1972 when calculated in today’s money. There is a limited supply of gold and lots of potential buyers—ideal conditions for a bubble, says Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. If gold is burnished by grim news, it seems likely to become still more alluring.

terlanjur CINTA: Citi is 2big2fail2… he3

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 10:17 am

Citi limits
Citigroup is bailed out yet again by the American government

… after AIG, Mac, Mae, BOA, MBAC, please help them all, but Citi… ouw, no way, u should lend a hand to Citi as well… time for market rebound next month… still far from recovery as what many expects till now…

terlanjur cinta: JANGAN COBA2 LAWAN PASAR DAh… he3

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 9:33 am

Sabtu, 28/02/2009 12:33 WIB
Cadangan Devisa RI Bertambah US$ 190 Juta
Angga Aliya ZRF – detikFinance

 – Posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia hingga tanggal 18 Februari 2009 mencapai US$ 51,06 miliar, atau setara dengan 4,7 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri.

Posisi cadangan devisa tersebut meningkat sebanyak US$ 190 juta jika dibandingkan posisi Januari yang mencapai masih berada di posisi US$ 50,87 miliar.
  
Demikian dikatakan oleh Direktur Direktorat Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter Bank Indonesia (BI) Made Sukada di sela-sela acara workshop Wartawan Ekonomi dan Perbankan, Savoy Homann, Bandung, Sabtu (28/2/2009).
 
“Posisi cadangan devisa kita ini cukup kuat, siapa yang berani melawan. Sehingga persepsi krisis likuiditas itu probabilitasnya close to zero persen,” katanya.
 
Maka dari itu, ia mengatakan masyarakat tidak perlu meragukan kemampuan BI menjaga volatilitas rupiah tetap stabil melalui intervensi, karena bisa dilakukan setiap saat ketika kekurangan dana.
 
Walau beban utang luar negeri baik pemerintah maupun swasta masih menjadi tekanan bagi cadangan devisa, ia menambahkan, hingga saat ini beban utangnya masih berada di batas yang aman.
 
Posisi cadangan devisa itu mencukupi untuk 4,7 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri. Rasio tersebut lebih rendah dibandingkan posisi Januari.
 
Pada bulan pertama 2009 tersebut, porsi cadangan devisa lebih kecil namun setara dengan 5,2 bulan impor dan utang luar negeri. Menurutnya, hal tersebut diakibatkan beban utang luar negeri yang meningkat hanya dalam waktu satu bulan.

(ang/ir)

… swasta lawan swasta, bisa? bisa katanya: detik finance Bandung – Total utang luar negeri pihak swasta yang jatuh tempo di tahun 2009 mencapai US$ 17,4 miliar.

Demikian hal itu dikemukakan Direktur Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter Bank Indonesia (BI) Made Sukada di sela-sela acara workshop Wartaw an Ekonomi dan Perbankan, Savoy Homann, Bandung, Sabtu (28/2/2009).

“Berdasarkan data BI dari loan agreement-nya swasta, jumlah utang swasta yang jatuh tempo tahun ini mencapai US$ 17,4 miliar,” katanya.

Ia mengatakan, jumlah utang luar negeri tersebut masih dalam posisi yang bisa dikendalikan. Pasalnya, tidak seluruhnya harus dibayar lunas, karena ada beberapa utang yang masih bisa diperpanjang.

Menurutnya, perpanjangan waktu pembayaran utang dalam perusahaan swasta merupakan hal yang lazim terjadi. “Biasanya karena rekan bisnis yang cukup dekat, atau anak usahanya sendiri. Sehingga bisa di-roll over,” tandasnya.

Februari 27, 2009

terlanjur cinta: resesi sungguhan…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:32 pm

U.S. Economy Shrank 6.2% Last Quarter, Most Since ’82 (Update3) 

… wow, gosipnya, 1000 bank akan kolaps sebelum krisis berakhir … gosip didengerin … he3

By Timothy R. Homan

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a faster pace than previously estimated as consumer spending plunged, companies cut inventories and exports sank.

Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, more than economists anticipated and the most since 1982, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington. Consumerspending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, declined at the fastest pace in almost three decades.

The recession is forecast to persist at least through the first half of this year as job losses mount and purchases plummet. The Obama administration’s attempts to break the grip of the worst financial crisis in 70 years are unlikely to bring immediate relief as companies from General Motors Corp. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut payrolls.

“There has been no evidence that the pace of decline is slowing at all, there are other shoes waiting to drop,” Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There is a chance that the stimulus package will kick in” in the middle of this year, he said.

Stock Futures Drop

Treasuries rose, sending benchmark 10-year note yields down to 2.93 percent as of 9:17 a.m. in New York, from 3 percent late yesterday. Stock-index futures extended earlier losses, with futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 2.3 percent.

GDP was projected to contract at a 5.4 percent annual pace last quarter, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Forecasts ranged from declines of 3.8 percent to 6 percent.

The 2.4 percentage-point revision was almost five times as large as the average adjustment, Commerce said.

The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July through September. The back-to-back contraction is the first since 1991.

For all of 2008, the economy expanded 1.1 percent as exports and government tax rebates in the first six months helped offset the deepening slump in consumer spending that followed.

Consumer spending dropped at a 4.3 percent annual rate last quarter, the most since 1980, after falling at a 3.8 percent pace the previous three months. That marks the first time purchases have dropped by more than 3 percent in consecutive quarters since record-keeping began in 1947.

Payroll Declines

Americans may further reduce spending as employers slash payrolls. Companies cut 598,000 workers in January, bringing total job cuts to almost 3.6 million since the recession started in December 2007.

More cutbacks are on the way. General Motors, which is seeking $16.6 billion in new federal loans, said this month it is cutting another 47,000 jobs globally. The company reported yesterday it lost $30.9 billion last year.

JPMorgan Chase, the second-biggest U.S. bank, may cut headcount in its investment bank by as much as 2,000, Steven Black, co-head of the New York-based company’s investment bank said yesterday at an investor conference.

The New York-based lender also said it will eliminate 2,800 jobs at Washington Mutual through attrition, bringing to 12,000 the total number of positions lost since the bank purchased the failed thrift in September.

Saks Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are among retailers also cutting jobs.

‘Tough Start’

“It’s going to be a tough start to 2009,” Scott Davis, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc. said yesterday during a speech in Washington. “The best case we can see out there is maybe some growth in the second half.”

Companies trimmed inventories at a $19.9 billion annual rate last quarter rather than allowing them to swell at a $6.2 billion pace as previously reported. The updated reading accounted for half of the 2.4 percentage-point reduction in growth.

Purchases of new equipment also plunged last quarter. Business investment dropped at a 21 percent pace, the most since 1980. Spending on equipment and software dropped at a 29 percent pace, the most since 1958.

Cutbacks continue this quarter. Orders for durable goods in January fell 5.2 percent, marking a record sixth consecutive drop, Commerce said yesterday.

Collapse in Trade

The collapse in global trade subtracted a half percentage point from growth last quarter, compared with the 0.1 point gain projected in the advance report. The International Monetary Fund said last month the global economy will grow 0.5 percent this year, the weakest postwar pace, indicating U.S. exports are likely to remain depressed.

The slump in home construction accelerated, contracting at a 22 percent pace last quarter after a 16 percent drop in the previous three months, today’s report showed. Housing is likely to remain a drag on growth as Commerce figures last week showed U.S. builders broke ground in January on the fewest houses on record.

Since taking office last month, President Barack Obama has focused on three initiatives — a $787 billion stimulus bill, a bank-rescue plan and an effort to limit home foreclosures –while warning of economic “catastrophe” if the government doesn’t take aggressive action.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week the U.S. economy is in a “severe” contraction, and warned the recession may last into 2010 unless policy makers can stabilize the financial system.

The GDP report is the second for the quarter and will be revised in March as more information becomes available.

Februari 26, 2009

terlanjur cinta: kerja otak = kerja kasar

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 7:16 pm

25/02/2009 – 16:35
Kerja Melebihi 55 Jam Merusak Otak
Yayat Cipasang

INILAH.COM, London – Jurnal kesehatan di Amerika Serikat melaporkan sebuah hasil penelitian terbaru mengenai keterkaitan jumlah jam kerja dan dampaknya terhadap memori seseorang.

Hasilnya, menurut American Journal of Epidemiologi, kelas menengah yang bekerja melebihi 55 jam dalam sepekan cenderung memiliki mental yang lemah, sulit mengingat dan dalam jangka pendek juga sulit mengulang kata-kata yang pernah diucapkannya.

Sebaliknya, kelas menengah yang bekerja di bawah 41 jam dalam sepekan menunjukkan kecenderungan memiliki mental yang baik dan mudah mengingat apa yang sudah diucapkannya.

Penelitian ini juga seperti ditulis The Telegraph, Rabu (25/2), menyebutkan stres dan merokok juga termasuk penyumbang kerusakan mental dan memori seseorang.

Dr Marianna Virtanen dari Institute Kesehatan Finlandia telah meneliti 2.214 pegawai negeri sipil Inggris sejak 1980-an. Mereka yang bekerja lembur rata-rata memliki kelemahan dalam memori atau fungsi kognitif.

Dari studi ini disimpulkan bahwa, kerja yang melebihi batas maksimal—di Eropa 48 jam sepekan—dalam jangka panjang dapat mempengaruhi daya kognitif seseorang. “Apalagi kalau ditambah kebiasaan merokok,“ kata Virtanen.[L1]

terlanjur cinta: depresi JADI ga SEH…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 4:35 pm

Over 95% of investors claim not to have seen the current downturn coming nor do they accept the probability of a coming depression (at least they did not by the end of 2007). There continues to be conversation whether we are near a bottom. Much money on the sidelines is eagerly waiting to go back into the market or more likely, existing investments with big book losses waiting for the market to recover. Yet when our probable course is viewed in historical terms, there is a very clear and likely path, much further reduction in the value of everything particularly including real estate, equities, bonds and most commodities (gold is shaping up as a hedge against the problems). What does history tell us?

Most views of history do not go back further than 5 years. In late 2007, I went to numerous prominent investment advisors to look for suggestions. Not one of them gave me recommendations where they would provide investment records that went back more than 5 years, the bottom of the 2002 downturn (Very convenient! I would call this deceptive advertising). The truth is that you need to look at investment histories over three hundred years for many realities to simply jump out at you. You see clearly that history repeats. You see clearly during three hundred years that there are major repeating cycles.You see clearly that ideas like buy and hold make no sense when you look at things over several decades. You see clearly that diversification does not really work when measured in terms of decades. (Commodities almost always bottom within three months of major bottoms of stock indexes.)

History needs to be looked at in two terms. Numerical terms of what has happened to the markets and descriptive terms of what has happened to the market.

Let’s look first at a numerical description of the market. I am using a chart courtesy of James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial. This shows commodity prices from 1730 to present. You can clearly see the repetition of cycles in the prices of commodities.

Another excellent source of similar material is from Bob Prechter of Elliot Wave Theory. Both of these men provide excellent historical data on stock indexes, bonds, commodities and many other asset classes. As you look at their charts, you simply cannot avoid the conclusion that there are up and down cycles that have repeated many times over the last several hundred years. We are now in a major down cycle when the above chart is updated through February 2009.

Now let’s look at descriptions of previous historical financial bubbles and crashes. While there are numerous excellent books, I particularly like “Devil Take the Hindmost, A History of Financial Speculation” by Edward Chancellor.His book starts will the tulip bubble in Holland in 1630. The book ends with a description of the Japanese Bubble of the 1980s (highly relevant since this is the strategy our government has chosen to peruse as a solution to our problems and this book gives some clear historical description of how it is likely to end). He also finishes with some description of the early problems with derivatives from the 1990s which are highly relevant as we can see how our earlier problems with derivatives ended and therefore where our current problem with derivatives will likely end.

Nearly all the bubbles in history seem to have three aspects in common,

1) A dramatic increase in the money supply (including money created via derivatives, private equity and hedge funds),

2) Usually a wonderful new financial instrument to facilitate this increase in the money supply (this time it is derivatives, where the Mortgage Backed Securities have already exploded. One particular aspect of derivatives is the Credit Default Swaps which is an economic nuclear bomb with the potential to explode through counter party failures) and

3) An easing of credit standards which ultimately leads to much bad credit (we seem to have already lost something like a trillion dollars with several more trillions to be written off as we go through the process with fatal consequences for many banks and financial institutions).

While they may seem like three different issues (increased money supply, new financial instruments and credit quality), in practice they are intimately related to one another in creating their nefarious effects on the world economy.

This is not a happy scenario. But we do no one a favor to pretend the cycle does not exist and that we are not in a major down cycle. If I am correct in the assertions made in this article, it raises serious doubts about the effectiveness of the Obama plan to fix the economic problems of the country.

terlanjur cintA: BoTTom MELulu, akan kah terbukti…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 4:27 pm

7 Signs of an Economic Bottom 
February 25, 2009

Mark Sunshine
seeking alpha

There are opaque and early signs that the U.S. economy has started the beginning of a bottoming process. Just like a diving submarine needs to stop its downward motion and reach its lowest depth before it can resurface, the economy needs to go through the steps of slowing its decline and stabilizing before it can start rising again. Some recent economic data seems to suggest that the rate of economic decline has started to slow and that sometime in the second or third quarter the bottom may be found.

Of course, external events such as a large natural disaster, war or a regional economic collapse (like of China, Japan, the EU or Eastern Europe) will push the U.S. into a renewed freefall. But, assuming the rest of the world isn’t dead weight on the U.S. economy, we are heading into a period of crummy economic performance with a dramatically diminished base of recurring economic activity. The economic bottoming won’t feel like recovery because it won’t be; it will merely be an arrested freefall of a damaged economy.

Recent news on continued home price deflation and sales, Bernanke’s testimony that the economy could be worse than expected and record low consumer confidence all mean the economy is still shrinking. The economy is, however, starting to show signs of shrinking at a slowing rate, which is the beginning of the bottoming process.

The early signs of finding a bottom include:

Money supply is essentially stable and in the case of M1 slightly down (on a seasonally adjusted basis) since the beginning of January.
Money supply (as measured by seasonally adjusted M1 and M2) has stabilized and is no longer growing at weekly double digit rates. Seasonally adjusted M1 is actually slightly down since the beginning of January and seasonally adjusted M2 has been essentially unchanged since the middle of January. Exponential money supply growth is a sign that the Federal Reserve is trying to perform economic resuscitation while slower money supply growth indicates that the Federal Reserve believes that the economy is starting to stabilize. Hopefully the Federal Reserve knows more about the economy than we know.

Excess reserves, while still at historically unprecedented levels, are dropping.
Excess reserves at the Federal Reserve are a barometer for the amount of cash hoarding that is taking place by banks. When banks hoard cash they increase their deposits at the Federal Reserve and “excess reserves” are created. On January 13th Ben Bernanke gave a speech where he said that when banks start lending again excess reserves will decline. Excess reserves peaked in early January at approximately $843 billion and have been steadily declining so that as of February 11th excess reserves were down to $611 billion. While the current level of excess reserves don’t mean that the economy is healthy (prior to the crisis excess reserves were around $2 or $3 billion), the direction of excess reserves is down which is a good sign.

After 5 straight months of producer price deflation, PPI increased by 0.8% in January.
The economy won’t slow its freefall as long as there is deflation. The PPI data for January was very good news regarding producer prices. While one month of producer price increases doesn’t mean deflation is gone, the amount of the increase and that there were increases in finished goods suggests stable demand at current depressed inventory, price and production levels.

Consumer prices increased in January by 0.4%, before seasonal adjustments, which indicates that the risk of runaway consumer price deflation has gotten lower.
Just like the PPI numbers were a good sign of restored supply/demand equilibrium, the CPI numbers also signaled that consumer prices may be finding a floor. If the economy is going to find a bottom, consumer prices cannot be dropping. January’s CPI numbers were a good sign for the economy.

Housing construction and automobile manufacturing are hitting bottom; after all $0 of sales is the absolute bottom and the U.S. is getting close to that boundary.
These two sectors probably can only go up from here. When production and sales hit post-WWII lows and approach “$0″ of sales, there isn’t much farther to fall, which by definition puts them at a bottom. And, believe it or not, automobile sales are showing the signs of future strength. Used car sales were reasonably strong in January with some price-hardening taking place. When used cars go up in price, that is usually a pretty good predictor of new car sales rebounding.

A few weeks from now fiscal stimulus will start kicking in.
Payroll tax cuts from the fiscal stimulus will begin in the next few weeks and will start to provide some added discretionary income to consumers. If the stimulus works as planned this should provide some additional cash for consumers, which will prop up demand. Also, construction spending from the stimulus bill will start to help the economy in the next few months.

The newest version of TALF hasn’t started yet, but when it does, it will provide additional cash to prop up consumer demand.
TALF is a trillion-dollar program that should almost immediately help consumers get financing for purchases of automobiles, education and other consumer related items. TALF will also provide some relief for SBA lenders and small businesses. As TALF kicks in it should provide some additional underlying support for consumer demand and provide support to the economy.

Let’s hope that what the U.S. economy is looking at is the bottom and not its own reflection before being pulled down into a deeper abyss.

terlanjur Cinta: ayo nafas, ayo pinjam, ayo, ayo

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 4:09 pm


it is clear that the lending markets are stabilizing in the calmer condition since Dec 08 … so it is believable that the Fed has done its best to provide the most needed tools by the banking sectors, capital to lend and to borrow … that’s why no wonder the nationalization of the banking sectors had gained some speed in threatening the markets, because too much of capitals served by the central bankers quietly and confidently… the calmer ocean to sail should be a nice thing to expect … nice and low oil price, low inflation, big demand of durable goods, big drive for the housing markets, big lure of automotive markets for the buyers, and sweet songs in the stock markets… hmmm, nice dream in the afternoon … he3

ted spread was in the same trend like the 3 month libor trend… The TED spread is the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and short-term U.S. government debt (“T-bills”). wikipedia

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