eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Januari 30, 2009

yolanda: kesempatan sulit berulang kah?

Filed under: Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 12:56 pm

30/01/2009 – 16:04
Hebat! IHSG Lolos dari ‘Maut’

(inilah.com/Wirasatria)

INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Indeks harga saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Jumat (30/1) berhasil ditutup menguat di level 1.332 poin setelah meredanya tekanan jual terhadap sejumlah saham unggulan.

Sentimen negatif dari penurunan indeks Dow Jones lebih dari 200 poin semalam hanya berpengaruh di awal-awal perdagangan, dan sekitar satu jam kemudian indeks justru sudah berada di zona hijau.

Pergerakan indeks hari ini cukup fluktuatif karena investor masih banyak mempertimbangkan segala perkembangan di pasar, baik dari eksternal maupun internal.

Relatif stabilnya harga minyak mentah yang berada di kisaran US$ 41 hingga US$ 42 per barel di pasar Asia hari ini juga membuat sejumlah investor di sektor tambang dan komoditas masih yakin untuk memegang saham-saham ini.

Hasilnya memang cukup tak disangka karena di tengah tekanan dari eksternal, kinerja saham di BEI ternyata mampu merangsek ke zona hijau.

Sejumlah besar saham unggulan saat ini memang sudah cukup murah, dan banyak juga yang memiliki kinerja cukup apik, sehingga dapat memberi keyakinan kepada para investor untuk mengoleksinya.

Aksi ambil untung hanya terjadi pada awal perdagangan dan itu sebagai kelanjutan dari aksi sesi perdagangan kemarin. Namun, setelah harga minyak cenderung stabil, investor mulai kembali mengoleksi saham-saham komoditas, yang notabene menjadi market mover.

Dalam perdagangan yang tidak terlalu ramai hari ini, tercatat 64 saham menguat, 36 saham melemah dan 58 saham lainnya stagnan.

Volume perdagangan tercatat 1.435,3 miliar lembar saham senilai Rp 882,4 miliar, dengan frekuensi sebanyak 24.646 kali.

IHSG hari ini ditutup menguat 8,017 poin di level 1.332,667, sedangkan indeks LQ45 naik 1,695 poin menjadi 262,564 dan JII terangkat 0,916 poin menjadi 213,634.

Sejumlah saham yang menguat antara lain Gudang Garam (GGRM) yang melonjak Rp 250 menjadi Rp 5.400, TB Bukit Asam (PTBA) menguat Rp 150 menjadi Rp 7.400, Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) terangkat Rp 150 menjadi Rp 2.200, Astra Int’l (ASII) naik Rp 100 menjadi Rp 13.000, United Tractors (UNTR) terdongkrak Rp 100 menjadi Rp 5.050 dan Indo Tambangraya (ITMG) naik Rp 100 menjadi Rp 900.

Sementara saham-saham yang melemah meliputi Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) yang rontok Rp 100 menjadi Rp 10.900, BISI International (BISI) jatuh Rp 50 menjadi Rp 2.100, Indofood (INDF) runtuh Rp 30 menjadi Rp 980, BNI (BBNI) melemah Rp 15 menjadi Rp 340 dan Bank Mandiri (BMRI) melemah Rp 10 menjadi Rp 1.820. [tra]

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yolanda: bottom melulu, kapan euphorianya… (2)

Filed under: Contrarian Strategy — bumi2009fans @ 2:18 am

kalo mo tau kompleksitas menentukan bottom di bursa saham, bole baca di link ini:I am Investor: yolanda: bottom melulu, kapan euphorianya…

yolanda: BUMI KISSED EARTH

Filed under: Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 2:08 am


apa kata pasar kemarin: bumi engkau harus menepati (he3… kaya iklan salah satu rokok) JANJI MU UNTUK MENAATI KETENTUAN PASAR DAN BAPEPAM-LK tentang akuisisi 3 perusahaan dalam waktu 2 bulan ini … well, akibatnya malah bumi harus mencium bumi, sementara ctra, bisi, elty malah berusaha mencari oksigen di permukaan…

yolanda: EMOSI MEMBARA, kesempatan BICARA

Filed under: Contrarian Strategy — bumi2009fans @ 2:03 am

Jumat, 30/01/2009 07:33 WIB

Volatilitas pasar masih tinggi

oleh : Arif Gunawan S.

JAKARTA (Bisnis.com): Pasar hingga akhir pekan ini diperkirakan masih bergerak dengan volatilitas tinggi, menyusul masih minimnya nilai transaksi pemodal di bursa saham.

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) menunggu kembalinya selera berinvestasi pemodal untuk bergerak dalam transaksi bergairah.

“Pasar masih akan kurang aktif sepanjang pekan ini, karena keterbatasan jumlah pelaku transaksi yang menyebabkan terbatasnya likuiditas,” tutur Kepala Riset PT Mandiri Securities Ari Pitoyo, kemarin.

Di tengah kondisi tersebut, lanjutnya, indeks pun cenderung bergerak dengan fluktuasi tinggi selama sepekan ini, dan baru kembali pada kondisi normal setelah pasar kembali pulih.

Investor asing yang selama ini ikut menggerakkan pasar pun diduga menunggu investor domestik menanamkan dananya ke bursa saham. “Arah bursa pun cenderung sulit ditebak,” ujar Ari.
… tanda2 bahwa GONCANGAN EMOSI INVESTOR amat dominan … jadi, ini adalah peluang buat beli dan jual juga seh … atau jual dan beli juga bisa, tergantung di posisi mana menunggu … itulah hikmahnya kegoncangan emosi bila disikapi dengan kejernihan berpikir, dan berperilaku … bener ga yaow… liat aja dah .. gw mah uda dalam posisi beli minoritas dan hold mayoritas reksa dana saham gw …

yolanda: perbaikan bukan berarti sudah sembuh…(2)

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 1:49 am

International stock funds face a cruel world
Gloom expected to lift in 2009, but full recovery is a distant prospect
By Sam Mamudi, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:57 p.m. EST Jan. 5, 2009
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — While much of the focus of the past year was on the carnage in U.S. markets, the biggest hit to many investment portfolios came from international stock holdings.
Popular mutual-fund categories such as Latin America and emerging markets, which had previously powered investor returns, tumbled hard in 2008.
International stock funds lost 44.9% on average in 2008, according to preliminary figures from investment researcher Morningstar Inc — worse than the 37% slide for the benchmark U.S. S&P index.

For investors accustomed to stellar overseas gains and the portfolio diversification it promised, international-fund returns in 2008 — or the lack of them — was a rude shock.
“The myth of international decoupling has been put to rest,” said Uri Landesman, head of global growth at ING Investment Management, a unit of ING Groep
But as 2009 begins, there are reasons to hope that the horrific numbers of the past year are a thing of the past.
“We’re finding [such] a large number of stocks to invest in right now that we think 2009 will be a good year,” said Gary Motyl, chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group, part of Franklin Resources Inc.
Motyl did temper his positive outlook by adding that he expects a “subdued” start to the year.
“You can find stocks with real good business models that have been beaten up as much as those that don’t,” said John Maxwell, co-manager of Ivy International Core Equity Fund
But echoing Motyl’s caution, Maxwell said that his portfolio is still “more defensive” in its composition.
Down and out
Subdued would be a marked improvement over what took place in 2008, when the three worst-performers of all stock-fund categories were in the international sector, according to Morningstar. The losses were so bad, the three-year annualized return numbers for all international funds plunged into negative territory — down 8% on average — despite what had been stunning results for most of the decade.
The worst of the lot was Latin America funds, down 59.8%. Three-year annualized returns were off 2.4% — reflecting the category’s runaway performance until late 2007.
Also at the bottom of the performance rankings were emerging markets funds, down 53.8%. Emerging markets funds, for so many years the darling of U.S. investors, now sport three-year annualized losses of 6.3%.
Motyl takes a philosophical view of 2008’s woes.
“You can’t have enjoyed the fruits of globalization over the past 10 years and not expect” a downturn, he said.
Future’s bright
Perhaps Motyl can take that view because he’s looking ahead to future gains. He said that the recent market declines offer many welcome buying opportunities.
“The market’s not differentiating between quality stocks and those that aren’t doing well,” Motyl said. “It’s a great time to look at big, well-capitalized stocks.”
Motyl mentioned Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. as an attractively priced stock for a company that’s cash-rich and “well-positioned to beat its competition.”
Ivy’s Maxwell, meanwhile, named Nestle as a favorite. “It’s still cheaper than most consumer staples, with a very good balance sheet and dividend payouts,” he said.
He also likes Japanese video game giant Nintendo Ltd.
“It’s down 50% this year, but one-quarter to one-third of its market capitalization is in cash and the Wii [gaming] console is one of the few things that kept selling over the Christmas period.”
Landesman said European mining companies should have a good year because they have been “dramatically oversold” and will also benefit from coming infrastructure spending by national governments and inflation in those countries. Spending and inflation should also boost the infrastructure sector in Europe, he added.
Landesman expects China to bounce back in 2009 and predicted that it will “surprise” in the second half of the year. Pacific-Asia funds that invest outside of Japan lost 52.8% on average in 2008.
“We’ll see Chinese growth closer to 8% of gross domestic product than the 5% that the market is pricing,” he said. “They have a great balance sheet and are at a much stronger jumping off point than the U.S.”
While China may lead the way, Landesman views other BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China) countries favorably, too. Expected commodities price gains later in the year will boost Brazil and Russia, he predicted. As for India, “it’s in a pretty good place for the long-term [because of rising domestic demand] but with the proviso that higher commodities prices will hurt.”
“China, Russia and India have fallen back to levels where their stocks fall into the strong hold/attractive to buy category,” Franklin’s Motyl said. “We’re excited when we look out one, three or five years.”
“You can buy a Japanese automaker with good products and a strong supply chain for three or four times earnings right now,” Maxwell added. “When things turn around and we’re on the up again, that should grow to 10 or 11 times earnings.”
Warning signs
I don’t think anyone really has an idea” about what will happen in the coming year, said Bill Rocco, analyst at Morningstar Inc.
“If you’re an international investor, you should continue to focus on the long term and rebalance your portfolio so that the funds you hold still fit your strategy,” he said, suggesting investors consider international managers with a “good, broad-based style that can pick and choose [stocks] as they see fit.”
And despite the hope many managers display, there are some areas they say should be avoided in 2009.
Japan is like the General Motors Corp. of countries,” Landesman said. Low demand coupled with a high currency and an aging population has created the “perfect storm of a disaster.” In 2008, funds that focus solely on Japan lost 34.1% on average.
Landesman is also wary of European markets overall. “There’s not a lot of opportunity in mature Europe [aside from mining and infrastructure],” he said, and blamed the European Central Bank for spurring what he said will be a recession that lasts longer than the U.S. contraction.
The ECB needs to cut rates and cut them soon. What they’re doing is just guaranteeing a long period of pain,” Landesman said. He added that the strong euro will also hurt European countries trying to kick-start their economies through exports.
Maxwell, the Ivy fund manager, agreed that the ECB’s actions have fallen behind its international counterparts. “The U.K., U.S., China, Japan and Australia are all being very aggressive. In that sense the ECB does stand out from the crowd,” he said. But some parts of Europe are in better shape than other countries. “The consumer in France and Germany just wasn’t that levered,” he said.
The average Europe-focused stock fund lost 47.6% in 2008.
Maxwell said he’s cautiously hopeful for 2009. “I would guess that by the end of the year it would be an ‘up’ year,” he said.
That could still leave investors a long way from recent highs. “It would take an upward move of about 80% to get us where we were 14 months ago,” said Landesman. “I don’t think we’ll see a new high in the markets for about five years.”
Landesman said that international stocks and funds may continue to lag the U.S. “The U.S. is probably going to be a good place to be [in 2009],” Landesman noted. “There’s a reasonable chance that it’ll do better than international.” See related story on U.S. stock fund performance.
Maxwell said economic improvement in the U.S. should also lift companies that export to America, including Japanese automakers and European manufacturers.
bener khan, amrik tetap LOKOMOTIF EKONOMI GLOBAL … well, mungkin sedikit lebe rendah kekuatan daya tariknya seh … asia bisa jadi pasar yang lebe potensial juga akhirnya
“Europe might not be trying to reflate their economy,” he said, “so much of [the upturn] will come from the U.S. restarting and getting the world economy going again.” End of Story
Sam Mamudi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York.

yolanda: THE STAR on the mountain white (Davos)

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 1:45 am

Davos forum kata market watch:
Wen’s optimism stands out
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao sounds note of confidence at World Economic Forum. … will it be spread globally, so that more and more confidence on the governments and investors … once it happens, the spread of opportunities blooms

yolanda: kejepit, tapi lumayan dah

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY,Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 1:41 am

2009* IN THE EMERGING MARKETS
Best-performing markets
MSCI Sri Lanka 28%
MSCI Chile 6.8%
MSCI Israel/Non-Domestic 6.5%
Worst-performing markets
MSCI Poland -23.5%
MSCI Hungary -23.4%
MSCI Czech Republic -19.3%
… bei ada di mana? di tengah2 bo … PERAGU ABIS … menurut nara sumber dari fortis yang seminarnya gw datangin, ternyata dominasi investor global sudah terkikis oleh investor lokal, yang ga tau mau ke mana lagi bo, terutama para ritelwan/wati … mungkin mereka pantas disebut sebagai pahlawan devisa juga bo … sekali-sekali memuji investor sendiri boleh khan … he3

yolanda: Rp ga lawannya US$ setelah stimulus…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 1:08 am



… seirama ga tuh 2 grafik mata uang, us$ dan IDRupiah … well, tekanan eksternal ini punya dampak apa ya dalam jangka menengah, terutama setelah asumsi apbnp 2009 menyebutkan angka 11000-an rupiah untuk 1 dolar amrik … kayanya bakal mati2an di balik layar neh … gw mesti memantau situasi finansial amrik lebe dalam neh …

market watch bilang:
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Outstanding commercial paper fell the most ever this week, while the size of a program started by the Federal Reserve to help companies hang onto a key source of short-term funding also showed a marked decline, according to new data released Thursday.
Outstanding commercial paper fell $98.8 billion in the week ended Jan. 28, to $1.59 trillion. That was the largest weekly decrease since the Fed started tracking volumes of this short-term corporate debt in 2001. Levels haven’t been this low since the last week of October.
In a separate statement released late Thursday, the Fed said its holdings of commercial paper through its Commercial Paper Funding Facility, or CPFF, fell in the same week. They declined $33.7 billion to $316 billion.
Analysts trying to piece together the jigsaw of data sets said the decline in outstanding volumes likely reflected companies’ ability to issue other types of debt, as the three-month commercial paper they had sold to the Fed matured.
Rather than sell new commercial paper to the Fed above-market rates, they likely funded some of their short-term capital needs by issuing other forms of debt, such as bank bonds backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Co.
Foreign banks, meanwhile, may have tapped Yankee certificates of deposits, analysts said.
The past week’s decrease is arguably the result of improved conditions in the money market,” said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.
Analysts and economists will be closely watching levels of commercial paper over the next week to see whether private investors are willing to return to this market. It faces a key hurdle when an estimated $230 billion to $245 billion, issued at the time the Fed started the program, comes due.
… artinya, situasi finansial amrik mulai ada tanda2 perubahan positif, yaitu mengurangi beban2 utang yang ga perlu, dan mensiasati persoalan pembiayaan melalui sistem leveraging yang lebe sehat … deleveranging berjalan secara bertahap dan progresif, namun peralihan ke sistem pembiayaan yang lebe sehat adalah cara yang juga menolong kondisi bisnis dan perekonomian amrik … semoga ga terlalu berdampak ke ekonomi global, terutama soal kekuatan mata uang lokal masing-masing

lanjut:
The Fed has been acting as a lender of last resort to the commercial paper market since it started buying high-quality, three-month commercial paper, for a fee, on Oct. 27. It started this program after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September sent investors fleeing corporate debt, making it tough for companies such as General Electric Co. (GE:
AXP 16.71, -1.14, -6.4%) to access short-term funding for daily operations such as payroll.
The program enjoyed heavy demand from issuers, with the Fed’s holdings rising to $350 billion last week. Thanks to the Fed’s hand in this market, commercial paper volumes rebounded and, earlier this month, topped levels last seen before the Lehman Bros. failure.
“My impression is that the market has improved, and the Commercial Paper Funding Facility is really a crutch for the market,” said Joseph Abate, money market analyst at Barclays Capital.
The Fed’s rates are now higher than market rates for top-rated financial commercial paper, encouraging companies that need to refinance their maturing debt to try to sell their debt to private buyers.
But no one knows whether institutional investors will play along.
“Weaning the CP market off of life support … is a scenario that will need to play out over and over again over the next several years, as the Fed seeks to exit from the various extraordinary programs put into place,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, earlier this week.
If issuance sinks but the Fed’s holdings of commercial paper stay high, that could indicate this market still needs the support of the Fed. Some investors anticipate the Fed will have to extend the commercial paper program past the April 30 deadline.
Analysts said that banks, historically the biggest users of the commercial paper market, have been tapping other corners of the credit market that are also supported by the government.

C 3.90, -0.30, -7.1%) last week issued $12 billion of securities under the FDIC’s guarantee program.
“Banks that raise capital through the FDIC’s program can cut their short-term borrowing, a desirable goal in the current environment where excessive reliance upon short-term funding is extremely risky,” Crescenzi said.
Anurag Bhardwaj, an analyst with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said that banks’ issuance of commercial paper had fallen two-thirds from when the Fed’s commercial paper program started.
At the same time, the analyst estimates banks and other financial companies issued about $167 billion of bonds backed with guarantees from the FDIC.
But at this point, determining whether erstwhile commercial-paper issuers have found a better alternative in other credit markets — or were simply barred from raising private funding altogether — amounts to little more than reading the credit-market tea leaves.
“We don’t know if the difference between what matured and what didn’t go into in the commercial paper market, where it went,” said Barclays’ Abate. End of Story
Laura Mandaro is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

yolanda: reksa dana pasar uang, trus berproduksi…

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2009 — bumi2009fans @ 12:52 am

kata kontributor portal reksa dana soal cara penghitungan reksa dana pasar uang:
Mungkin gak sesederhana itu lo.. portfolio RDPU kan biasanya
obligasi jangka pendek, time deposit, CP, deposit on call, etc.
Return/hrnya kan laen” dimana perhitungannya rumit berdasarkan marked
to market (terutama utk obligasi). masalahnya kt tidak tahu persis
obligasi apa yg dipegang, meskipun tahu jg cukup sulit dihitung krn
harus track data perdagangan obligasi tsb di bursa shg bisa ditetapkan
harganya secara mark to market.

:)D drpd mbulet.. mending terima
pasrah hitungan dr bank kustodian aja. Dihitung sendiri mgk 1 hr gak
selesai kalo gak punya programnya. Lagian return RDPU cm 6-10%/th
… sistem reksa dana indon memang sudah diundang-undangkan secara ketat, termasuk pengelolaan oleh bank kustodian agar dana nasabah tidak hilang dan pengawasan bank kustodian oleh bapepam-lk … seharusnya sih aman2 saja (pake sistem Kontrak Investasi Kolektif)

mau lihat perkembangan terakhir di amrik soal reksa dana pasar uang:I am Investor: yolanda: perbaikan bukan berarti sudah sembuh…

Januari 29, 2009

yolanda: inflasi lebih bagus daripada deflasi

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 4:51 am

BI: Inflasi 2009 mendekati 5%.
Kamis, 29 January 2009

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Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI)
Boediono menyatakan bahwa inflasi akan melemah tahun ini hingga mendekati 5%
akibat penurunan harga komoditas dan bahan bakar minyak. BI telah tiga kali
merevisi kisaran proyeksi inflasi tahun ini dari semula 6,5%?7,5% menjadi 6%?7%
dan terakhir 5%?7%. Target inflasi 2009 sebenarnya berada di level 4,5%±1%,
sehingga ruang untuk menurunkan suku bunga masih ada. Sementara itu, pemerintah
berniat mempertahankan asumsi inflasi sebesar 6,2% untuk anggaran (APBN) tahun
ini. Menurut Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani, asumsi inflasi ini sudah akan
terealisasi pada medio 2009. (chris_03_ip) infovesta.com
… artinya, kesempatan besar untuk perbaikan dan pemulihan ekonomi makro indon … well, faktor eksternal pasti memainkan peran besar, walau pun ekonomi domestik agak terisolasi … semoga stimulus yang dijanjikan dan APRIL 2009 global meeting akan membawa perubahan mendasar buat ekonomi makro indon … sehingga faktor politik tak perlu terlalu mengganggu

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