eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

November 30, 2008

SEMPURNA: what crisis (3)

Filed under: Contrarian Strategy,Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 4:30 pm

SUDAH ADA KESEPAKATAN BAHWA 2008 ADALAH PERIODE BEARISH DI BEI TERPANJANG SEPANJANG SEJARAH 5 TAHUN TERAKHIR … lalu, apakah dimungkinkan untuk berinvestasi contrarian strategy yang berjangka pendek? (minimum positive gain = 5%)

JAWABAN PASTI: AMAT MUNGKIN , ini buktinya

nama produk

tanggal

NAB

% gain
pnm ekuitas syariah

28-10-08

537,43
pnm ekuitas syariah

14-11-08

637,41

18,60
fortis ekuitas

28-10-08

3.535,35

buy-bottom(B) I
fortis ekuitas

04-11-08

4.569,6

29,25
fortis ekuitas

24-11-08

3.775,61

6,80/buy-B II
fortis ekuitas

28-11-08

4.165,96

17,84/10,34
manulife dana saham

28-10-08

2.745,26 buy-bottom(B) I
manulife dana saham

05-11-08

3.367,64 22,67
manulife dana saham

24-11-08

2.899,51 5,62/Buy B II
manulife dana saham

28-11-08

3.156,21

14,97/8,85%
manulife saham andalan

28-10-08

391,76 buy-bottom(B) I
manulife saham andalan

05-11-08

467,16

26.78
manulife saham andalan

24-11-08

418,66 6,87/Buy B II
manulife saham andalan

28-11-08

466,94

19,19/11,53
phinisi dana saham

28-10-08

4.784,6 buy-bottom(B) I
phinisi dana saham

04-11-08

6.092,57

27,34
phinisi dana saham

24-11-08

5.144,39 7.52/Buy B II
phinisi dana saham

28-11-08

5.674,62 18,60/10,31
schroder dana istimewa

28-10-08

1.316,16
schroder dana istimewa

14-11-08

1.526,03

15,94
schroder dana prestasi plus

28-10-08

5.980,66
schroder dana prestasi plus

14-11-08

6.948,46

16,18
schroder dana terpadu II

28-10-08

1.088,31
schroder dana terpadu II

14-11-08

1.186,07

8,98
reksa dana pnm syariah

28-10-08

1.599,28
reksa dana pnm syariah

14-11-08

1.689,09

5,61
manulife dana campuran

28-10-08

1.963,72
manulife dana campuran

14-11-08

2.277,77

15.99
fortis rupiah plus

28-10-08

1.243,49
fortis rupiah plus

14-11-08

1.307,84

5,17
manulife dana tetap pem.

28-10-08

738.11
manulife dana tetap pem.

14-11-08

870.54

17,94
manulife obligasi neg. ind.

28-10-08

1.037,80
manulife obligasi neg. ind.

14-11-08

1.231,97

15,76
rd pnm amanat syariah

28-10-08

1.205,91
rd pnm amanat syariah

14-11-08

1.209,54

0,30
schroder dana mantap plus

28-10-08

1.334,86
schroder dana mantap plus

14-11-08

1.518,65

13,76

Penjelasan: coba perhatikan FORTIS EKUITAS:

buy bottom I: pada tgl 28 Oktober 2008 adalah hari terburuk bagi produk reksa dana berbasis saham ini karena anjlok terdalam dalam 2008 … prinsip contrarian strategy adalah MENCARI BOTTOM dan BELI …

makanya gw BUY-BOTTOM di harga terendah itu …

ternyata pada tgl 04 November 2008, nilai aktiva bersih fortis ekuitas mencapai positive gain (selisih kenaikan) 29,25% …

bagi yang mau merealisasikan gain-nya, ini saatnya, dan gw melakukannya …

lalu pada tgl 24 November 2008, nab fe mencapai BOTTOM lagi: artinya saat gw BUY-BOTTOM lagi …

gw beli pada NAB hari itu, dan meraih positive gain= 10,34% pada akhir perdagangan saham November 2008 yaitu tgl 28 November 2008

seandainya gw masuk dengan modal awal gw pada taon 2008 ini sebesar jumlah tertentu pada tgl 28 Oktober 2008, maka target gw buat 2008 bahwa rata2 reksa dana saham gw bakal positive gain 15% sudah terlewati dengan metode contrarian strategy di atas … hikmahnya adalah pada setiap taon sebenarnya selalu ada peluang menemukan BOTTOM TERDALAM (puncak krisis), saat ketika BUY BOTTOM akan memberikan peluang yang sangat baik untuk meraih positive gain yang paling besar … terbukti khan

KENDALAnya: MENCARI BOTTOM YANG PALING DALAM ITU TIDAK MUDAH

SOLUSInya: bila ingin berinvestasi jangka pendek, maka setiap bottom terdalam pada satu periode, adalah peluang terbaik pada periode itu, dan itu sudah gw lakukan sejak awal taon 2008 ini, yaitu BUY-BOTTOM dan SELL-TOP pada setiap periode tertentu, sehingga seperti yang gw uraikan di: http://ekonomitakserius.blogspot.com/2008/08/strategi-antagonis-lumayan-lah.html DAN http://ekonomitakserius.blogspot.com/2008/10/strategi-antagonis-2.html

godai aku LAGI: The Fed works very hard to restore..

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 10:44 am

Fed loans to banks increase in latest week
Holdings of commercial paper grow by $16.5 billion, as credit crunch persists.
November 28, 2008: 7:13 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve boosted its lending to commercial banks and investment firms over the past week, indicating that a severe credit crisis was still squeezing the financial system.
The Fed released a report Friday saying commercial banks averaged $93.6 billion in daily borrowing for the week ending Wednesday. That was up from an average of $91.6 billion for the week ending Nov. 19.
The report also said investment firms borrowed an average of $52.4 billion from the Fed’s emergency loan program over the week ending Wednesday, up from an average of $50.2 billion the previous week.
The Fed said its net holdings of business loans known as commercial paper over the week ended Wednesday averaged $282.2 billion, an increase of $16.5 billion from the previous week.
Financial firms are borrowing from the Fed because they are having trouble raising money through normal channels as the financial system endures its worst crisis since the Great Depression.
Banks are hoarding cash rather than making loans out of fear that they won’t be repaid.
The Fed and the Treasury have been flooding the financial system with money in hopes that banks can return lending operations to more normal levels.
The central bank on Oct. 27 began buying commercial paper, the short-term debt that companies use to pay everyday expenses. It was one of a series of moves the Fed has made to try to unfreeze credit markets.
The Fed’s goal is to raise demand in this area as a way to boost the availability of commercial paper, which has been seriously constrained since the financial crisis hit with force in September.
The report said insurance giant American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500)’s loan from the Fed averaged $79.6 billion for the week ended Wednesday. That was down by $5.6 billion from the average the previous week.
The reduction reflected a modification of the government’s support program for AIG earlier this month. Under that change, Treasury stepped in with a $40 billion purchase of stock in AIG, using money from the government’s $700 billion financial system rescue package. The increased support from Treasury allowed the Fed to reduce slightly the size of its total loans to AIG.
The Fed unveiled two new programs Tuesday in a further effort to get consumer credit flowing again.
It said it would begin buying mortgage-backed securities from mortgage giants such as Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac. (FRE, Fortune 500) And it announced a program to lend to financial firms that buy securities backed by various types of consumer debt, from credit cards to auto and student loans.

Find this article at: http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/28/news/economy/bc.fed.creditcrisis.ap/index.htm

…. kecemasan perbankan amrik masih tinggi, tapi bukan tertinggi … cemas kalo fungsi intermediasi antar bank dijalankan normal akan malah berefek bumerang, terciprat muka sendiri aka tidak kembali uangnya … padahal CASH IS STILL THE KING, FEAR IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR in markets … bagaimana menghadapi kecemasan pasar? The Fed melakukan segala cara menolong agar adrenalin rush tidak terjadi pada pihak perbankan, yaitu reaksi berlebihan terhadap kecenderungan tipu menipu para pelaku pasar, saat kondisi masih belum normal … misalnya, dengan mengurangi ketegangan tarik urat antara pemberi pinjaman dan penerima pinjaman melalui mekanisme intervensi likuiditas, memberi dana segar bagi para pihak yang dominan di pasar supaya punya kelebihan memberi pinjaman pada yang lebih minoritas, dll … will all that work this time? it would’ve supposed to be working … why not?

November 28, 2008

Godai Aku Lagi: November Tersenyum Tipis

Filed under: Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 11:43 am

ihsg tgl 29 September =1832

ihsg tgl 31 Oktober = 1256

ihsg tgl 28 November=1241

maknanya: bursa sudah tenang, walau pun masih ada kecenderungan bearish, namun juga sudah terjadi rebound phenomenon
Desember akan mengalami diskon pada minggu terakhir karena libur panjang akhir tahun, tapi juga disertai dengan Window Dressing oleh laporan2 keuangan emiten

godai AKU lagi: ayo buruan belanja, belanja, jangan ngutang yaow

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:28 am

By Michele Gershberg and Aarthi Sivaraman
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Early bird shoppers filed into U.S. stores on Thanksgiving day on Thursday, drawn by bargains from retailers who hope to salvage what could be a disastrous holiday sales season.
The holiday weekend will test the strength of consumer sentiment, a main driver of the U.S. economy, as the country faces its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

… mereka mendengarkan anjuran BELANJA YOK BELANJA SEKARANG JUGA:
Black Friday sets the tone for holiday
By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — At suburban Minneapolis’ Mall of America, the biggest U.S. shopping center, more than 5,000 shoppers lined up outside of the 520-store complex for free gifts and “door buster” specials before the mall’s first full-store opening at 6 a.m.
“We let them in at 4 a.m.,” said Maureen Bausch, Mall of America vice president. “It’s the busiest we’ve seen. People are making purchases.”
Across the country, predawn crowds, some armed with tents as they gathered as early as noon on Thanksgiving Day, were reported outside of Best Buy Co., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other big-box retailers and malls to capture early-hour bargains on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving that marks the start of retailers’ biggest selling season of the year.

… mau tau kenapa disebut BLACK FRIDAY … karena Thanksgiving Day adalah selalu jatuh pada hari kamis terakhir November, sedangkan 1 hari setelah TD adalah hari Jum’at saat seluruh amrik menyerbu tempat2 belanja, sehingga banyak ritel yang mengalami peningkatan penjualan, lalu di pembukuan mereka laba mereka tercetak, yaitu berwarna hitam … maka disebut lah hari jum’at itu sebagai black friday … sebuah penggalan kalimat yang membingungkan tapi mempunyai makna positif bagi bisnis dan kehidupan orang biasa di amrik

godai aku lagi: seputar wilayah bumi (sewilmi)

Filed under: Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 3:18 am

pergolakan bumi membunuh enrg.jk (energi mega persada) yang masih satu wilayah Bakrie … tapi jkse masih mencetak angka positif, namun kecamuk sentimen negatif tetap ga jauh-jauh dari bumi dkk … bahkan perbankan yang seharusnya lebih kinclong kena imbas

godai AKU lagi: Rupiah agak kalem

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:06 am

… ketika di puncaknya, kemerosotan rupiah sudah mulai dianggap keterlaluan … kebablasan … saatnya rupiah menegakkan kepala, namun sentimen negatif yang bersifat rutin tetap mengganggu, misalnya korporasi bayar utang akhir taon, sementara safe haven model ust-bond mulai kurang diminati investor cari aman, ganti ke emas yang malah pengaruhnya adalah dollar-negative (artinya, dolar turun, emas naik, dan sebaliknya) … suasana perkreditan di amrik secara umum semakin sejuk, yang menyebabkan kebutuhan fisik dolar berkurang … ko-presidensi amrik menunjukkan gairah berinvestasi secara umum semakin pulih … bebek lumpuh di parlemen amrik mulai dilupakan, karena keagresifan 2 tokoh vip keuangan amrik, yaitu menkeu dan gubernur the fed, mencapai puncaknya guna meraih citra positif di akhir tugas mereka … tapi rupiah masih bisa merosot khan, atau paling tidak di wilayah 12000-an? well, iya seh, semoga Desember adalah bulan ceban-an yaow … tunggu laporan cadangan devisa November 2008 oleh BI

GODAI aku lagi: UTANGI aku lagi

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 2:33 am

Fed’s ‘Consumer Bailout’ Encourages More Bad Behavior
by Laura Rowley
Consume No More
But even if a gusher of credit is forthcoming, the era of consumer-driven economic growth is over, argues Robert Manning, professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology and author of “Credit Card Nation: The Consequences of America’s Addiction to Credit.” “It’s astounding how much consumer debt has increased since 2001, and government official] realize how little flexibility they have today versus other recessions,” Manning says.
“For most Americans in denial, this is going to be a real wakeup call; you’re going to hear more often about sacrifice and learning to live within a budget, whether it’s at the household or government level,” Manning adds.
White agrees that pumping up consumer lending “is not a sustainable approach. There’s got to be a transition to where the consumer is saving more and spending less, and the spending is coming from either the industrial/business sector or government sector — using those consumer savings to build capital, whether it’s a private-sector plant and equipment or social sector infrastructure. The change from a consumer-driven to more of an investment-driven economy has to be the long-run pattern for our economy.”

godai aku LAGI: time investments

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 2:18 am

inves: godai AKU lagi: invest your time first, before investing

first thing first, inward investments first by learning from the significant others … then you might be able to be a very reliable investors and know the contrarian strategies as well as other investing strategies in the financial investments … you will develop your own style of investing

godai AKU lagi: invest your time first, before investing

Filed under: Investasi Umum — bumi2009fans @ 2:15 am

http://247wallst.blogspot.com/2006/09/twenty-best-financial-blogs.html

spend your time to learn from the experienced investors and brokers … time is for you amid the crises .. long before the euphoric markets will arrive at their highest level

GODAI aku lagi: setelah menanjak terus menurun…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 1:59 am
World stocks hit 2-week highs
Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:51am EST
By Ian Chua
LONDON (Reuters) – Global stocks hit two-week highs on Thursday with European equities playing catch up to strong gains overseas, but more grim economic reports briefly sent government bond yields in Europe to a fresh three-year low.

… jelas keanehan pasar adalah normal bagi investor, yaitu saat ekonomi memburuk, investor malah melihat peluang karena mengantisipasi aliran likuiditas stimuli fiskal dari seluruh dunia, termasuk Indonesia, walau pun terjadi badai sosiopolitik di Thailand dan India, tapi sentimen positif kesepakatan2 global mencuat sekali

… gerakan mulai tidak menentu, saat profit taking kah?

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