eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Maret 31, 2008

asii v. bumi

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008,Terkait Saham BEI — bumi2009fans @ 5:53 am

…. apakah bumi akan pulih sementara asii mempertahankan posisi sehingga ihsg akan positif, inflasi gimana?


menurut IHT:

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 5:32 am

Stocks keep gyrating. The dollar continues to slide. The credit markets remain unsettled. And traders keep buzzing that Bear Stearns, which was saved from possible bankruptcy by a takeover backed by the Federal Reserve, may not be the last Wall Street bank to run into trouble.

But the proposals by the Treasury Department to change financial regulation, which critics say are long overdue and still do not go far enough, are aimed at the future, and do not address the current turmoil.

… itu lah sikap NATO pemerintahan Bush yang sebentar lagi lengser … pasti ada maksud terselubung (hidden agenda) untuk kelestarian bisnis keluarga Cheney n Bush saat lengser nanti … apa ya? paulson kayanya semakin kalap untuk menuruti kehendak cheney n bush … apa bakal lengser lagi sebelum waktunya, seperti menkeu2 sebelumnya?

the worst quarter in Asia?

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 4:50 am

…. indeks harga saham bursa efek indonesia (dh. bej) juga terburuk sih selama 5 taon… mungkin ini yang disebut sebagai siklus 5 taon-an …

International Herald Tribune
Asian shares head for worst quarter in 5 years
By Rafael Nam
Monday, March 31, 2008

HONG KONG: Asian shares fell on Monday, heading for their worst quarterly performance in over five years, on persistent concerns about the global credit crunch and the impact of weakening U.S. consumer demand on the region’s exports.

Oil prices, among the top performing asset classes so far this year, extended falls from the previous session after the restart of a crude pipeline system in Iraq eased concerns over supply.

A choppy dollar kept other commodity prices steady, following a quarter in which a slumping U.S. currency has sent the prices of asset classes such as gold to record highs.

“With the possibility of further writedowns and profit warnings, you’re seeing investors more cautious about the financials and moving into more defensive sectors,” said Savanth Sebastian, equities economist at CommSec in Australia.

The MSCI’s measure of Asian stocks outside Japan fell 0.5 percent by 0205 GMT.

Asian equity markets have had a tough quarter amid the prospects of a looming U.S. recession and a worsening global financial credit crisis that has led to billions of dollars in writedowns in the financial sector.

The MSCI’s index has fallen 13.6 percent so far this year, its worst performance since the quarter ended in September 2002.
These same concerns continued to hit Asian shares in the last day of the quarter after U.S. department store operator J.C. Penney Co Inc on Friday cut its first-quarter earnings forecast — setting up doubts about the health of U.S. consumer demand.

Worries about the health of the financial sector also continued after Oppenheimer & Co analyst Meredith Whitney said U.S. banks including Citigroup are likely to announce dividend cuts in April.

Tokyo shares fell 1.5 percent amid caution ahead of key domestic economic data this week, while Shanghai’s benchmark index also fell 1.5 percent after rumours last week that the government would announce market-friendly steps failed to materialize.

Japanese trading house Marubeni Corp plunged 6.2 percent after Lehman Brothers said it would sue the company over what it said was a fraud by Marubeni employees. A source said Lehman had been fleeced for more than $355 million in the scam.

Shares in Taiwan and Hong Kong fell more than 1 percent, while indexes in South Korea and Australia were down less than 1 percent each.

balek ke statin kuno, yang murah…

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 1:41 am

By Steve Sternberg, USA TODAY
CHICAGO — The blockbuster drugs Vytorin and Zetia should be used only after all other cholesterol-lowering drugs fail until research proves that the medications work, a panel of heart specialists recommended here Sunday.
The panel, convened by the American College of Cardiology, based its assessment on detailed evidence from a controversial study, released Sunday, showing that Vytorin worked no better than a statin drug now sold as a cheap generic.
“There is absolutely no difference … between the two treatment groups,” said lead investigator John Kastelein of the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam at the group’s annual scientific session.
The panel’s spokesman, Harlan Krumholz of Yale University, said: “Our strongest recommendation is that people need to go back to statins. … If you were put on this drug before you were fully treated on a statin, you should go back.”
The study’s results also were released online in the New England Journal of Medicine. The journal’s editor, Jeffrey Drazen, and three colleagues offered similar guidance in an editorial.
Both Zetia and Vytorin are made up of a drug, ezetimibe, that blocks the absorption of bad cholesterol, LDL, in the gut. Vytorin also contains the cholesterol-lowering drug simvastatin. Statins block LDL synthesis in the liver.
Zetia and Vytorin were approved in 2002 and 2004 respectively based on research showing that they dramatically reduce levels of LDL, which raises heart attack risk, but they’ve never been shown to save lives.
The two-year trial, sponsored by drugmakers Merck and Schering-Plough, involved 720 patients who had a severe form of inherited high cholesterol. Half were given simvastatin, also sold as Zocor, and a placebo. The rest were treated with the combo sold as Vytorin.
Researchers compared the drugs’ performance by measuring fatty deposits in the carotid arteries that supply the brain and femoral arteries in the legs. They found no differences between patients who took simvastatin alone and those who took Vytorin.
“It was a disastrous outcome for this drug,” says Robert Califf of Duke University,
co-leader of an 18,000-patient trial called Improve-It, which will be the first to measure whether ezetimibe prevents heart attacks and deaths. The results are due in 2011.
Enrico Veltri, a Schering-Plough vice president, said the trial in “no way changes LDL as a primary target of cholesterol therapy based on medical guidelines. We need to have treatment options available.”
In a second study in the New England Journal, Krumholz and his co-workers examined prescribing practices in the USA, where a $200-million-a-year consumer advertising campaign helped build Vytorin and Zetia into blockbusters, and Canada, where direct-to-consumer advertising is banned.
The promotion effort helped the drug capture 15% of the market for cholesterol-lowering drugs vs. 3% in Canada, the study found.

Maret 29, 2008

help & action v. NATO

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 4:28 pm

Bush: Economic stimulus, mortgage assistance

by Mark Silva

That economic stimulus check will soon be in the mail.

Or in your direct deposit.

It cost the government some $40 million to mail the letters that went out recently advising everyone of the Economic Stimulus checks that will start arriving in May — A maximum of $600 for an individual, $1,200 for a couple, and another $300 for every child eligible for a tax credit. And it will cost the government over $100 billion to make good on the checks.

In his radio address today, President Bush touts the checks — which he proposed this year as a “shot in the arm” for a slowing economy, and which Congress quickly authorized — as well as assistance which the government is offering for homeowners struggling with mortgages.

“For many families, the greatest concern with the economy is the downturn in the housing market,” the president said today. “The problems in the housing market are complicated and there is no easy solution. But by supporting responsible homeowners with wise policies, we’ll help them weather a difficult period, we will help get our economy back on track, and we will ensure America remains the most prosperous Nation in the world.”

This is the text of the president’s radio address:

“Good morning. It’s not every day that Americans look forward to hearing from the Internal Revenue Service, but over the past few weeks many Americans have received a letter from the IRS with some good news. The letters explain that millions of individuals and families will soon be receiving tax rebates, thanks to the economic growth package that Congress passed and I signed into law last month.

” Americans who are eligible for a rebate will get it automatically by simply filing their taxes. If you are not a tax filer, you should visit your local IRS office to fill out the necessary paperwork so you can get your rebate on time.

” The growth package also contains incentives for businesses to invest in new equipment this year. On Wednesday I visited a printing company in Virginia that has decided to use these incentives to purchase new software. As more businesses begin taking advantage of these incentives, investment will pick up and so will job creation. And together with the individual tax rebates, these incentives will help give our economy a shot in the arm.
“For many families, the greatest concern with the economy is the downturn in the housing market. My Administration has taken action to help responsible homeowners keep their homes. In October, we helped bring together a private sector group called the HOPE NOW Alliance. HOPE NOW has helped streamline the process for refinancing and modifying mortgages, and it runs a national hotline to connect struggling homeowners with mortgage counselors.

“On Friday, I visited an impressive mortgage counseling center in New Jersey. At the center, I met with homeowners who have been able to get help, thanks to HOPE NOW. One of them is Danny Cerchiaro. Danny owns a home in New Jersey that also serves as a studio for his movie production company. When Danny and his wife learned that their adjustable rate mortgage was resetting to a higher rate this past summer, they became concerned about their financial security. So Danny called HOPE NOW for help. Less than two months later, he was able to get a more affordable fixed-rate mortgage. And today Danny calls the mortgage counselor who helped him, “the magic lady.”

” Theresa Torres from Kansas City is another homeowner who has been helped. Theresa called HOPE NOW after she and her husband fell behind on their mortgage payments in December. A mortgage counselor helped Theresa modify her mortgage. Today she no longer worries about losing her home.

” There are hundreds of thousands of homeowners like Theresa and Danny who could benefit from calling HOPE NOW. If you’re a homeowner struggling with your mortgage, please take the first step toward getting help by calling the hotline at 888-995-H-O-P-E. That’s 888-995-H-O-P-E.

“HOPE NOW can help homeowners find the right solution for them. One solution for some homeowners is a new program we launched at the Federal Housing Administration called FHASecure. This program has given the FHA greater flexibility to offer struggling homeowners with otherwise good credit histories a chance to refinance. So far this program has helped more than 130,000 families refinance their mortgages. And by the end of the year we expect this program to have reached nearly 300,000 homeowners in all.
“This is a good start, and my Administration is committed to building on it. So we’re exploring ways this program can help more qualified homebuyers. The problems in the housing market are complicated and there is no easy solution. But by supporting responsible homeowners with wise policies, we’ll help them weather a difficult period, we will help get our economy back on track, and we will ensure America remains the most prosperous Nation in the world.

“Thank you for listening.”

…. it could be a good news at last …

Maret 28, 2008

spekulasi v. fundamental

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 11:50 am

Mr Greenspan argued that it was very difficult to discern whether an increase in asset prices was justified by economic fundamentals or the result of speculative activity.

…. faktor apakah yang mempengaruhi bursa saham untuk bullish? fundamental? spekulasi? … jawaban paling gampang pastilah karena spekulasi … bursa saham sering menjadi sulit dipahami, misalnya ketika 2003-2004, gdp resmi indonesia hanya rata2 4% p.a. … tapi anehnya, ihsg tumbuh sekitar 40-50% p.a…. kok bisa sih, selisihnya begitu jauh … itu khan pasti karena spekulasi … iya khan … tunggu dulu … sebenarnya, fundamental makroekonomi itu lah yang lebih menggambarkan betapa ekonomi bertumbuh cukup baik … jadi, sekian ratus emiten yang ada di bursa saham hanya lah sebagian kecil dari jutaan perusahaan yang ada di indonesia, termasuk ukm … akibatnya, sebagian kecil perusahaan dengan modal yang raksasa itu akan terbawa arus pertumbuhan makro … di samping itu, indonesia emang negara sumber daya alam yang terbesar di dunia … jadi, ketika makroekonomi indonesia dan ekonomi global tumbuh, perusahaan2 raksasa dalam bursa juga ikut bertumbuh pesat … apalagi ketika 2005-2007, komoditas menjadi primadona ekspor non migas, maka sumber daya alam indonesia menjadi penentu pertumbuhan ekonomi, termasuk perusahaan2 tambang dan minyak di dalam bursa … tapi, tetap saja seorang sekaliber alan greenspan aja pusing kalo ditanya apakah bursa saham bullish karena faktor spekulasi atau fundamental ekonomi? … dua2nya kali … hehehehhehehe

di situs morgan stanley…

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 11:39 am

ada tulisan yang bilang:
• EM equities to outperform: With recession and recoupling unfolding in the advanced economies but EM economies (soft-) decoupling, our global emerging market strategist Jonathan Garner continues to see EM equities outperforming developed markets this year.

… artinya, pasar saham negara berkembang akan berhasil melampaui kinerja pasar saham negara2 maju, khususnya amrik … well, ini kata pakarnya sih … lengkapnya:
Recession, Recoupling and Reflation
March 27, 2008

By Joachim Fels | London

Reiterating the three R’s: For some time now, Morgan Stanley’s global economics team has held three core views for 2008, which can be conveniently summarised as the three R’s: recession, recoupling and reflation.
• First, our US economists have been forecasting a recession in the first half of this year since early December, when this was still an out-of-consensus call (D. Berner & D. Greenlaw, Recession Coming, December 10, 2007).
• Second, while our emerging markets team has been expecting most EM economies to decouple from the US recession, we have been looking for the advanced economies to recouple to the US downturn (D. Berner & J. Fels, The Year of Recoupling, February 11, 2008).
• And third, despite global inflationary pressures, we have been forecasting major reflationary efforts from the central banks in response to the financial crisis and mounting recession risks, setting the stage for a new global liquidity cycle and continuing inflation pressures (J. Fels, The Great Monetary Easing of 2008, January 3, 2008).
If anything, the data flow and central bank actions since the start of the year, as well as further revisions to the growth, inflation and interest rate outlook by our economists in the various regions, have increased our conviction in these calls further. Here’s how we see the current state of play and how the three R’s link into our strategists’ calls on the main asset classes.
Recession unfolding: Three months into the new year, the incoming data have reinforced our US team’s recession call (D. Berner & D. Greenlaw, A Darker US Outlook, March 10, 2008). The recession in construction appears to have spread from residential to non-residential building. Employment declined in January and February, and we expect another decline of currently around 50,000 in March (data due on April 4). Also, both the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing ISM surveys have fallen below the recession threshold of 50. And with house price declines accelerating, the credit crunch unfolding, and energy price hikes sapping households’ purchasing power, the outlook for consumer spending has darkened further. Still, our US economists continue to expect the recession to be relatively mild and short Their tracking estimate for 1Q GDP currently stands at -0.4% (seasonally adjusted annualised rate, saar) and the forecast for 2Q at -1.1%. Fiscal stimulus should bring about some rebound in 3Q (+3.0% saar). If so, we would now be almost halfway through the recession! However, the rebound should be short-lived and morph into a sluggish, sub-par GDP growth rate of below 2% well into 2009.
Recoupling in the advanced economies… With oil prices close to a record high, the credit crisis lingering and the dollar weakening, we expect a material slowing of economic growth in Europe and Japan this year. Our Japan economists anticipate a halving of last year’s GDP growth rate of 2.1% this year, with GDP actually contracting in the current quarter. Moreover, they have recently slashed their 2009 GDP forecast from 2.2% to 1.3% (T. Sato, Still Turbulent, March 13, 2008). Similarly, our euro area team now sees GDP growing only at an average rate of 1% (saar) throughout this year and in early 2009. Annual GDP growth now only averages 1.5% in both 2008 and 2009 in the team’s revised forecast, from 1.6% and 2.2% previously (E. Chaney, E. Bartsch et al, From ‘Soft Rebalancing to ‘Conflict of Interest’, March 19, 2008). Our UK forecast has also been revised lower recently, with GDP growth averaging 1.7% this year and 1.8% in 2009 (from 1.8% and 2.2% previously), down from 3% in 2006-07 (M. Baker & D. Miles, Growth Forecasts a Little Lower, Inflation Higher … Aggressive Rate Cuts Still Unlikely, March 20, 2008).
… versus decoupling in EM… Meanwhile, while our emerging market watchers expect growth rates to slow in virtually all economies from last year’s heady pace, the story is for a ‘soft’ rather than a ‘hard’ landing in most cases. Commodity producers in the emerging world should still benefit from elevated prices. Also, many EM economies have turned into creditors and are therefore much less vulnerable to ‘sudden stops’ of capital inflows. EM growth is increasingly driven by consumer spending and infrastructure investment. Moreover, Fed rate cuts and the dollar weakness against other major currencies are leading to a (sometimes unwelcome) loosening of monetary conditions in those countries pegging to the dollar. Taken together, our team sees only a mild slowdown in EM GDP growth from 7.6% last year to 6.7% this year.
Reflation in full swing: As we discussed in more detail in the previous two issues of The Global Monetary Analyst (Opening the Floodgates, March 19, and Easing into the Great Monetary Easing, March 12), a major easing of global monetary policies, led by the Fed, is well underway. On our calculations, the GDP-weighted global policy rate currently stands at 4.3%. However, with global inflation running at close to 5% this year, the real global short rate is now negative! Looking ahead, we see another 50bp rate cut by the Fed to 1.75% at the next FOMC meeting on April 29-30. Further, we expect the other G5 central banks – the Bank of Japan, the ECB, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada – to cut rates this year. Of the 35 central banks we monitor regularly in this publication, we see 16 lowering rates between now and year-end, nine leaving rates unchanged, and 10 raising rates, virtually all in EM economies. Apart from global monetary easing, fiscal policy is becoming more expansionary in response to the credit crisis in many advanced economies. In addition, as Dick Berner has mentioned, policymakers in the US have embarked on deploying ‘unconventional tools’ to fight the credit crisis. All in all, ‘reflation’ in response to mounting recession and financial meltdown risks is the name of the game this year. As we have argued elsewhere, this raises the spectre of a move to a new, higher inflation regime in the next several years, with many central banks continuing to overshoot their targets (The Global Monetary Analyst: A New Inflation Regime, March 5, 2008).
The three R’s and our strategy calls: Our three core views – recession, recoupling and reflation – link directly into our strategists’ calls on the main asset classes:
• Yield curve steepening: Despite the recent flattening, our interest rate strategy team, led by Jim Caron, continues to expect further curve steepening in response to more reflation efforts by policymakers and rising inflation premiums in the longer end of the yield curve. The bull steepening seen so far should now give way to a bear steepening.
• Equity bear market not over: Our equity strategists expect the bear market in equities to last this year, based on their view that recession and recoupling imply an earnings recession in the US and Europe. However, with policymakers embarking on massive reflation, they are looking for a bear market rally in equities in the next few months.
• EM equities to outperform: With recession and recoupling unfolding in the advanced economies but EM economies (soft-) decoupling, our global emerging market strategist Jonathan Garner continues to see EM equities outperforming developed markets this year.
• Credit: the beginning of end of the bear market: Our credit strategists have recently become more constructive on credit markets as valuations have become attractive and US policymakers have become more aggressive in dealing with the credit crisis in various ways. For details, see A Sustainable Rally in Higher-Quality Credit, March 20, 2008.

low profile la yaow…

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 11:13 am

Main Saham, Jutawan Muda di Hong Kong Naik
Jumat, 28 Maret 2008 | 11:40 WIB
HONG KONG,JUMAT – Booming pasar saham di Hong Kong dan China tahun lalu, memberikan kontribusi terhadap kenaikan jumlah jutawan Hong Kong lebih dari dua kali lipat.

“Satu dari setiap 47 orang Hong Kong berusia 21-29 tahun memiliki aset likuid sedikitnya satu juta dollar Hong Kong (128.125 dollar AS) pada akhir tahun lalu. Dibandingkan satu dalam setiap 100 orang pada 2006,” sebut the South China Morning Post, Jumat (28/3) mengutip sebuah survei Citibank.

Secara keseluruhan, 414.000 orang dari jumlah penduduk Hong Kong sekitar tujuh juta memiliki aset likuid lebih dari 1 juta dollar Hong Kong pada Oktober dan November, naik dari 276.000 orang pada 2006.

Tetapi, penurunan di pasar saham baru-baru ini telah mengurangi jumlah ini sekitar 15 persen menjadi 350.000 orang. “Sebagian besar orang telah memiliki antara 600.000-900.000 dollar Hong Kong dalam aset likuid pada 2006, dan pasar saham yang ’bullish’ mengirimkan mereka menjadi para jutawan, namun mereka kehilangan status ini ketika pasar melemah,” kata direktur eksekutif global consumer group Citibank, Weber Lo.

Studi memperlihatkan bahwa kelompok usia 30-39 tahun, satu dari 13 orang adalah seorang jutawan, naik dari satu dalam 28 orang setahun sebelumnya. Survei juga menunujukkan para jutawan memiliki rata-rata 4,6 juta dollar Hong Kong dalam aset likuid tahun lalu, turun dari 5,6 juta dolar Hong Kong pada 2006. (ANT)

end of march: window DRESSING?

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 5:10 am

… will it be a good window dressing as well for the banks, miners, and oil companies in Indonesia? …

Japan stocks jump on window-dressing, banks bought
Fri Mar 28, 2008 12:26am EDT
(Updates to midafternoon)

TOKYO, March 28 (Reuters) – Japanese stocks jumped on Friday as investors bought to raise their portfolio value in the second-to-last session of the fiscal year, with Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and other banks gaining.

Oil and gas field developer Inpex Holdings Inc (1605.T: Quote, Profile, Research) extended gains on a continued rally in crude prices, with buying of some blue-chip exporters also helping to buoy the market. “The market tested the downside in the morning and didn’t fall, so investors are now turning to window-dressing given that Monday is the final day of the fiscal year,” said Masayoshi Okamoto, head of dealing at Jujiya Securities.

“Once this got started, everyone else is joining in. After all, who’s against a higher portfolio, even by just one yen?”

Pension funds appeared to be among the buyers, he added.

The benchmark Nikkei .N225 was up 1.8 percent at 12,836.29, a rise of more than 200 points. The broader TOPIX was up 1.5 percent at 1,244.52.

Mizuho Financial was up 2 percent at 387,000 yen and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T: Quote, Profile, Research), Japan’s largest lender, rose 1.5 percent to 890 yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T: Quote, Profile, Research) erased its morning losses to edge up 0.6 percent at 692,000 yen. Inpex was up 2.7 percent at 1.16 million yen. Online networking site host Mixi Inc (2121.T: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 8.1 percent to 1.07 million yen after Goldman Sachs raised its rating to “buy” from “neutral,” even while lowering its 12-month target price for the issue to 1.5 million yen from 1.8 million yen.

Mixi shares had been hit after matching an all-time high in December, as traffic volume shifted to mobile devices from PCs, hurting profitability.

But computer page views showed signs of bottoming in January-February, and growth in Mixi’s mobile page views is accelerating, analyst Natsuko Higuchi wrote in a note to investors. (Reporting by Elaine Lies; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

…crasH…crASH…cRASH…to new record…(cont.)

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 4:55 am

nav of fortis ekuitas
17/03/08: 8,420.74 (major crash of march 2008)
27/03/08: 8,940.22 (chekpoint II)
GAIN of 27/03/08 nav against
17/03/08: +6.17%

nav of schroder dana istimewa
17/03/08: 2,510.28
27/03/08: 2,654.99
GAIN OF 27/03/08 nav against
17/03/08: +5.76%

17/03/08: 1,160.45
27/03/08: 1,163.64
GAIN OF 27/03/08 nav against
17/03/08: +0.27%

… mau lihat revisi n data lebih lengkap lihat posting gw tgl 25 Maret 2008…judul: crash to crash dst…

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