eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Februari 29, 2008

MARKET TIMING & dasar inves di atas 2 tahun

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 1:45 am

well, 2 hal yang berbeda banget: market timing biasa dilakukan oleh investor (atau spekulan?) jangka pendek … sementara investasi untuk persiapan pensiunan biasanya bisa lebih dari 10 tahun … 2 tujuan investasi yang berbeda horizon, jadi seharusnya cara2 berinvestasi juga beda … (gw nulis sambil nonton ping pong euro di espn … he3) … yang jangka pendek (sebenernya gw ga punya pengalaman dan ga berminat untuk menjalaninya … karena tingkat risikonya di atas batas risiko yang gw alami selama hidup)… kira2 apa yang menjadi indikator yang harus diperhatikan ya? modal yang cukup, tapi persentase ke total aset harus kecil banget (kecuali emosi tinggi, bisa aja persentase jadi lebih dari 10%… ekspektasinya juga tinggi sih … tapi perhitungan rasionalnya adalah kalo kalah besar gimana? apa gaji akhir bulan masih lebih besar daripada loss?) … sedangkan untuk jangka panjang, jelas modal awal juga cukup kecil sesuai batas minimum, tapi perlahan-lahan tapi pasti, masuk lebih besar dan teratur berkala, ekspektasi jelas banget: jangka panjang, lebih dari 2 tahun … market timing yang logis: beli rendah, jual tinggi, tapi kalo perlu cut loss… investor jangka panjang bisa beli di level berapa aja (karena ekspektasi jangka panjangnya), dan bisa jual di harga berapa aja (karena pada saat jual sudah gain puluhan s/d ratusan persen, bahkan ada yang ribuan persen), profit taking adalah senjatanya saat gain besar emang sudah terjadi … investor jangka pendek jelas harus lebih dekat dengan pasar karena horizon investasi yang sangat sempit, bahkan jika margin call, berarti hanya beberapa jam saja di bursa saham, sementara di bursa valas, mungkin hitungan detik atau menit atau tidak sama sekali … kalo tidak dekat dengan pasar gimana tau kapan saat jual atau cut loss (sementara di bursa berjangka komoditas ada 2 cara: beli-jual, jual-beli… tetapi tetap harus dekat ke pasar) … sementara investor jangka panjang, mungkin ini yang disebut2 sebagai passive incomer, yaitu kerja utama sebagai investor adalah tidur, makan, main, dan bekerja cari uang tambahan dan mencapai tujuan2 hidup yang lain … beda banget ya … kenyataan bahwa banyak investor jangka panjang diam2 (bener2 ga berisik) tau2 sudah menerima uang pensiun yang lebih dari cukup … tapi emang kalo dibandingkan hasilnya, jelas investor jangka pendek (market timer?) jauh lebih besar gainnya dong … tapi yang buntung besar juga ada…. di sini hokie benar2 efektif … seperti kata teman investor: bisa menang bisa kalah kalo maen pendek2 … tergantung mana yang lebih besar menangnya atau kalahnya … usul gw buat market timer: jangan serakah (anti-greed) … saat sudah tercapai goalnya, jangan lalu menunggu harga jual yang lebih tinggi, uda lepas aja … trus, kalo bole jangan cut-loss, bujuk kek itu broker supaya waktunya diperpanjang, kalo bole sampai bener2 (mungkin 1 taon, 2 taon, atau 10 taon sekalian) harganya bagus lagi … hehehehheheheh….. becanda … cut loss itu salah satu senjata andalannya sih, jadi pasti harus dilakukan sebagai pernyataan kalah seorang investor jangka pendek sejati … di reksa dana, biasanya gw maen jangka pendek itu harus berhari-hari atau berbulan-bulan, karena fluktuasi harga dari posisi crash ke posisi rekor tertinggi biasanya bisa 1 hari saja, atau malah berminggu-minggu / berbulan-bulan … jadi, kesabaran bwat investor reksa dana saham jauh lebih teruji daripada investor margin call (menurut gw sih) … kira2 kaya gitu analisis gw, mungkin aja ga ada yang bener sih … hehehehehhe… yang penting khan, pengalaman gw, gain puluhan persen itu bener2 terjadi dalam jangka waktu mingguan s/d 3 bulan, terutama saat setelah crash terjadi … jadi. boleh dicoba kalo emang mo investasi jangka pendek di reksa dana saham … kayanya sih lumayan, apalagi kalo modalnya 4 M seperti yang pernah gw denger di salah satu cabang bank asing saat crash agustus 07 … lumayan lah

Iklan

Februari 28, 2008

bottom, bottom, bottom….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 6:00 pm

where the hell is the depth of the bottom … while there is no bottom seen, people tend to feel the bungee jumping effect not working… bungee jumping effect is when the end of the length of the rope reached and bounced up back … so everyday in the global village, everybody keep looking at the indicators of the usa economy … up until now, none of us is really sure the bottom seen already … keep looking, keep trying, keep doing something useful …

ct scans v. appendectomy

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 2:51 am

… it seems that appendectomy is always a source of income for the surgeons globally … not anymore, ct scans help your wallet … amazingly?

CT scans lower risk of unnecessary appendix surgery
Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:12pm EST
BOSTON (Reuters) – The chance of having an appendix removed unnecessarily has plummeted since 1996 in the United States, possibly because more doctors are using CT scans to confirm appendicitis diagnoses, researchers said on Wednesday.

The likelihood of an unnecessary appendectomy went from 24 percent in 1996 down to 3 percent in 2006, according to a team led by Dr. Steven Raman at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Their survey of 1,081 people who had had an appendix removed, showed the use of CT scans to check for suspected appendicitis went from 20 percent in 1996 to 85 percent 10 years later.

About 8 percent of the population develops appendicitis at some point in their lives as the finger-like sac at the start of the large intestine becomes enlarged and inflamed.

If the sac bursts, it can be fatal. Doctors have historically erred on the side of surgery when it looked like a patient with abdominal pain might have appendicitis.

The results appear in a letter to the New England Journal of Medicine.

(Reporting by Gene Emery; editing by Maggie Fox and Todd Eastham)

Thailand: gold is puzzling

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 2:41 am

… thais feel pain all over the place since the rise of global gold prices … the only long term saving they have is gold things, such as jewelry, etc … and now they must sell it thanks to the domestic economy problems … this irony happens all time .. on the other hand, the situation is a lesson on how gold investments might help the owners when needed in future …

In Thailand, all that glitters is probably not gold
Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:54pm EST
By Ploy Chitsomboon and Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat

BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand’s sluggish economy and record gold prices have prompted many elderly Thais to cash in family heirlooms as they struggle to make ends meet.

“This is family jewellery,” said Thai-Chinese grandmother Pannee Sae Kaow, standing outside a gold shop in Bangkok’s Chinatown clutching a tarnished gold necklace given to her years ago by her mother.

“The economy has left me no choice but to sell it,” the 78-year-old said forlornly. “Everything is more expensive and it’s tougher to live in a time like this. We’re not rich people.”

Like many of Thailand’s 65 million people, Pannee, who makes just 6,000 baht ($185) a month from a small dumpling stall, is not alone in battling soaring inflation stemming from high oil prices and an economy laboring after two years of political strife, including a 2006 coup.

“I have to work so hard to keep paying my bills,” said Jureerat Pongkum, who works part time at a Bangkok coffee shop.

“Prices keep going up but the quantity of food or things you get is still the same. Our pay is still the same,” the 24-year-old said as she wiped down a counter top.

“This is my first job after college but it’s not going to be enough. I’m looking for more part-time work,” she said.

“What can you do? You have to eat and live your life.”

The new government is talking up the economy, saying major public infrastructure projects in the pipeline will boost growth from a sickly 4.7 percent in 2007 towards 5.5 percent.

Consumer confidence has started to tick up after two years of steady decline, but the domestic gold market — one of the more unusual benchmarks of Thailand’s economic health — does not suggest a rosy outlook.

DISCOUNT SAVIOUR

Dealers say gold purchases are simply too expensive for most Thais and so dealers are melting down hocked jewellery and selling it abroad for gold value.

The profit they make is from the government-regulated five percent discount to market prices they are allowed to pay customers selling rings, bracelets and necklaces.

“There aren’t many customers at the moment — except for those coming to sell,” said 40-year-old gold trader Montree. “Many people can’t afford gold so we now ship it to elsewhere in Asia.”

International gold prices are hovering at a record high of around $955 due to strong demand from investors seeking a safe haven from a weak U.S. dollar and fears of a looming recession in the United States.

According to Commerce Ministry figures, Thailand exported 76 tonnes of gold in 2007 — an increase of almost 50 percent from the previous year — suggesting the trend to cash in jewellery has been going on for at least a year or so.

“In just one day last month, we exported up to 500 kgs. How crazy is that?,” gold shop owner Jinda said. “Since the gold price rose over $800 an ounce, more people are selling it.”

Albert Cheng, head of the World Gold Council’s Far East office, said Thailand showed a net investment demand of 18 tonnes of gold in 2007, far below India’s and Vietnam’s 56 tonnes, but near China’s 24 tonnes.

“In this part of the world, people buy gold as an investment and they trade on it,” he told Reuters. “Particularly in Thailand, people like to pay their money and bring the gold home. When prices go up they sell it and take the money”.

“It’s normal for Thai people to have gold jewellery, in particular in rural villages. That is how they accumulate wealth. When they need the money they just pawn or sell their jewellery”.

“I am not surprised they are selling because nowadays it is a very good price. But everytime we see a dip, people come back”.

GOLD LEAF GONE?

The slow economy and sky-high gold are also accelerating a cost-cutting trend at Thailand’s Buddhist pagodas and statues, now more likely to glitter with synthetic fiber than gold leaf.

“Gold leaf is my only family business but I can’t do it any longer,” said Sureeporn Panichrum, a lifelong gold-leaf trader watching her business go to the wall.

“Raw materials are way too high and people just don’t bother to use real a gold leaf any more,” she said.

Synthetic gold leaf may not shimmer like the real thing, hammered for hours into an incredibly thin film, but at only a third the price, it is a simple decision for even the most devout of Buddhists, she said.

Temples, too, are switching to acrylic paint.

“Everything that used to be gilt is now yellow acrylic paint,” said temple craftsman Jullanop Nark-kaew, 54. Paint cost a quarter of the real thing, he added.

“It’s sad. There’s not much gold leaf left to see in temples these days,” he said.

Soaring gold prices also appear to have caused a rash of gold shop heists, with newspapers reporting one hold up a week.

Many shop-owners have taken to putting up iron bars, hiring undercover guards or even keeping a gun under the counter where previously there was only a calculator and a pair of scales.

“Sometimes it scares me when I’m in the shop alone,” said one female store owner who declined to be named.

($1 = 32.40 Baht)

(Editing by Ed Cropley and Darren Schuettler)

Februari 27, 2008

No comment

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 12:48 pm

Rabu, 27 Feb 2008,
Mereka yang Menikmati Madu Ketika Bursa Indonesia Booming

Bawa Dua Laptop di Sela Kemacetan Jakarta
Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) tahun lalu tumbuh mengesankan sehingga tercatat sebagai pasar modal terbaik kedua di Asia-Pasifik setelah bursa Tiongkok. Inilah sebagian orang yang merasakan manisnya “madu” perdagangan bursa di tanah air.

ANDRESWARI W, Jakarta

RAMSON Siagian adalah satu di antara sedikit orang Indonesia yang bisa mencicipi manisnya penghasilan bermain di pasar modal. Tahun lalu, bersamaan dengan booming bursa di tanah air, dia mendapat keuntungan lumayan besar. “Besarnya setara gaji saya selama 2007 plus tunjangan sebagai wakil rakyat,” kata Ramson kepada Jawa Pos.

Anggota Komisi XI DPR itu enggan menyebutkan berapa persis keuntungan (gain) yang diperoleh dari otak-atik saham di Bursa Efek Jakarta (kini Bursa Efek Indonesia/BEI). “Yang jelas, bisa mencapai ratusan juta,” katanya.

Menurut Ramson, dia melakukan jual beli saham sejak 2001 meski awalnya hanya nasabah pasif. Baru pada 2007 dia mulai serius lagi. “Ya, sejak saya dipindah dari Komisi VII ke Komisi XI,” katanya.

Rupanya, saat di pos baru yang membidangi masalah keuangan, perencanaan pembangunan nasional, perbankan, dan lembaga keuangan bukan bank, dia makin bersemangat. “Saya tertarik belajar ke lapangan secara langsung.”

Menurut dia, berinvestasi saham memiliki beberapa keuntungan. Misalnya, sebagai investor, dia tetap bisa beraktivitas sehari-hari secara normal. “Tidak mengganggu kerja saya sebagai wakil rakyat,” kata Ramson.

Untuk memantau pergerakan harga saham di bursa, Ramson selalu terhubung secara online dengan layar saham BEI lewat laptop. Bahkan, saat jalanan Jakarta macet pun dia masih bisa mengutak-atik komputer jinjing itu.

Kunci bermain saham, kata dia, harus cepat mengambil keputusan untuk buy (membeli) atau sell (menjual). Karena butuh kecepatan itu, dia menyediakan dua laptop untuk mendukung profesi sambilannya tersebut. “Kalau yang satu low bat (baterai habis, Red) ganti satunya.”

Di sela-sela mengobrol dengan Jawa Pos, anggota DPR dari PDIP itu masih sempat sibuk online lewat laptop-nya. Saat itu dia memutuskan menjual saham dari Rp 8.400 ke level Rp 8.800 per lembar. Total yang ditransaksikan 100 lot atau 50 ribu saham. Jika diuangkan, dia mendapat keuntungan sekitar Rp 20 juta hanya dalam waktu sekitar 10 menit.

“Yang saya suka dari invetasi saham adalah adanya final tax. Apa yang saya dapatkan sudah dipotong pajak, sehingga tidak repot mikir lagi,” kata Ramson yang sebagai wakil rakyat gajinya “hanya” sekitar Rp 16 juta per bulan.

Pria kelahiran 1957 itu mengakui tidak khawatir lagi jika pensiun dari tugasnya pada Februari 2009. Sebab, dia sudah memiliki pekerjaan menantang dan mendatangkan keuntungan tinggi. “Saya harapkan tahun ini capital gain bisa mencapai Rp 2,5 miliar ke atas.”

Ramson mengaku belajar saham secara otodidak. Yakni, dari buku yang dibeli saat berkunjung ke Amerika tahun lalu. Bisnis ini, kata Ramson, butuh intellectual exercise yang dipadu dengan intuisi untuk menentukan mana (saham) yang dijual, dibeli, kapan waktunya, maupun di posisi berapa. “Saya banyak belajar mengenai tren global, analisis ekonomi, kondisi regional, maupun fundamental ekonomi Indonesia,” katanya.

Meski demikian, dia mengaku pernah kehilangan uang hingga ratusan juta saat punya tugas ke luar negeri tiga minggu. Pasalnya, saat itu dia menuruti saran seorang broker yang mengelola rekeningnya. “Saya kejebak. Padahal, mereka kurang memahami. Sejak saat itu saya tidak gampang percaya.”

Ramson bersyukur semua kerugian itu kini sudah kembali. Yakni, capital gain yang diperoleh pada perdagangan tahun lalu.

Ketika suku bunga perbankan dalam posisi rendah seperti sekarang, investasi konvensional dalam bentuk tabungan dan deposito sudah tak terlalu menarik lagi. Investor-investor perorangan di pasar modal seperti Ramson pun semakin bermunculan. Hanya, seperti lazim dalam hukum investasi, high return, high risk. Menanam uang di bursa memang menjanjikan keuntungan besar, tapi risiko kerugian juga besar.

Tak semua investor perorangan bermodal besar. Dengan pendapatan bulanan plus tunjangan anggota dewan, dalam bermain saham Ramson bisa menginvestasikan puluhan bahkan ratusan juta rupiah. Namun, banyak pula investor yang bermain di bawah itu. Rahmat Baihaqi, misalnya. Bapak satu anak itu baru pada 2007 menekuni perdagangan saham. Saat ini dia menanam uangnya di tiga perusahaan sekuritas. “Satu sekuritas ada yang Rp 50 juta. Tapi, juga ada yang hanya Rp 10 juta,” katanya.

Berbeda dengan Ramson, Rahmat kepada Jawa Pos tidak mau membeberkan apakah dia sudah dapat untung lewat investasi saham ini. Yang pasti, di sela-sela tugas harian sebagai karyawan swasta, dia menyempatkan diri memelototi pergerakan harga saham di kantor BEI di kawasan SCBD Jakarta.

Investor saham harus siap jantungan. Pada Januari lalu, saat bursa terkena dampak krisis subprime mortgage di Amerika, dia mengaku sempat kalut. Dalam sehari bursa, 22 Janurai 2008, indeks saham langsung melorot 191,35 poin (7,7 persen) ke level 2.294,52.

“Saya sampai memikirkan opsi cut loss (menjual saham meski rugi),” kata Rahmat. Untunglah, kepercayaan terhadap bursa pulih sehingga indeks saham terkatrol naik lagi.

Investor seperti Ramson maupun Rahmat memang memiliki profesi yang jauh berbeda. Namun, ketika mereka sedang online memantau saham, mereka punya kesamaan. Laptop yang selalu on atau handphone yang setiap waktu berdering. Mereka terus aktif kontak dengan broker saham yang mengelola dana mereka.

Investor saat transaksi di BEI memang harus melewati perantara para broker. Merekalah yang melakukan bid dan offer di lantai bursa, sehingga menciptakan harga baru untuk 385 emiten (perusahaan go public) yang saat ini tercatat di BEI. Mereka juga ikut diuntungkan saat bursa booming seperti sekarang.

“Seorang broker di tempat saya bisa dapat (fee) Rp 100 juta per bulan,” kata Presdir Kresna Securities Michael Steven saat ditemui Jawa Pos di sela-sela acara Selebritis dan Investasi di BEI beberapa waktu lalu.

Dari penelusuran Jawa Pos, para broker memang cenderung tertutup tentang penghasilan mereka. Alasan mereka, itu terkait hubungan dengan klien. Sebab, broker selalu mendapat fee dari setiap transaksi. Tak peduli klien mengalami kerugian maupun keuntungan.

“Di salah satu sekuritas, ada broker yang mampu menghasilkan rata-rata Rp 300 juta per bulan. Di tempat saya paling tinggi Rp 200 juta,” ungkap seorang sumber di perusahaan sekuritas.

Meski dapat fee lumayan, tugas para broker itu cukup berat. Mereka harus up date informasi terbaru terus-menerus. Sebab, tugas mereka adalah memberi rekomendasi kepada klien yang dananya dititipkan ke mereka. Tingginya fee dari para trader tersebut juga sebanding dengan risiko yang mereka tanggung. Sebab, kadang kala broker pun melakukan kesalahan dalam meng-input order klien. Kalau itu yang terjadi, terkadang para broker harus menanggung kerugian klien.

Karena itu, broker harus benar-benar profesional. “Untuk jadi broker harus ada sertifikasinya. Tidak sembarangan,” terang Edwin Sinaga, presiden direktur PT Finan Corpindo Nusa. Yang dia maksud adalah izin menjadi wakil perantara pedagang efek (WPPE).

Meski lulus dari Fakultas Teknik Sipil UI, Edwin mengaku mencintai dunia perdagangan efek. Dia terjun ke dunia pasar modal sejak 1996, menjelang Indonesia mengalami krisis. “Sejak itu saya lupa bangunan tingkat tinggi maupun jembatan beton,” katanya. (el)

kapan sih ga susah (2)

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 11:51 am

Drug-Resistant
TB Is Spreading
Around the World
By BETSY MCKAY
February 27, 2008; Page B6

A dangerous form of tuberculosis that is resistant to the most powerful drugs available is spreading rapidly around the world as efforts to combat it are lagging behind, a new World Health Organization report says.

Rates of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in parts of the former Soviet Union have reached the highest levels ever recorded, reflecting the effects of poor funding for TB treatment, slow diagnoses that prevent health officials from pinpointing cases of MDR-TB quickly and a failure to treat patients until they are fully cured, the United Nations public health agency said.

The report is the largest to date on the scale of tuberculosis drug resistance, with data gathered between 2002 and 2006 on 90,000 TB patients in 81 countries, the WHO said. Globally, about 500,000 new cases of MDR-TB are diagnosed every year, making up about 5% of the nine million new TB cases.

The highest rate of MDR-TB infection was in Baku, Azerbaijan, where 22% of all new TB cases were found to be multidrug-resistant. MDR-TB cases made up 19% of all new TB diagnoses in Moldova; 16% in Donetsk, Ukraine; 15% in Russia’s Tomsk region; and 15% in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

And that might not even be the whole picture, the WHO cautioned. Only six countries in Africa, the region of the world with the highest incidence of TB, were able to provide data about drug resistance.

MDR-TB, a contagious respiratory disease, is caused by TB germs resistant to at least the two most powerful anti-TB drugs. Curing it can take as much as two years of treatment that is far costlier than using the more powerful drugs. Public health experts have been promoting strategies and programs to combat MDR-TB for several years. But they say new drugs are urgently needed, along with faster diagnostic tests to identify drug-resistant TB strains.

Write to Betsy McKay at betsy.mckay@wsj.com

cuplikan:
Rates of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in parts of the former Soviet Union have reached the highest levels ever recorded, reflecting the effects of poor funding for TB treatment, slow diagnoses that prevent health officials from pinpointing cases of MDR-TB quickly and a failure to treat patients until they are fully cured, the United Nations public health agency said.
… sejak dulu, tbc aka kp (koch pulmonum) sudah menjadi masalah yang sulit dipecahkan karena kompleksitas persoalannya … terutama karena kuman Mycobacterium tuberculosis ini mudah2 susah dalam penanganannya … sejak dari diagnosis s/d kesembuhan s/d relaps selalu sulit dikerjakan … apalagi sekarang dengan keharusan mengganti jenis antibiotik standar menjadi antibiotik yang lebih pas mengatasi kuman yang sudah bermutasi itu … persoalannya menjadi kompleks karena banyak pasien kehabisan uang, motivasi, dan waktu dalam menjalani terapinya, sehingga obat2 yang seharusnya masih efektif menjadi gagal menghabisi kuman itu … di pihak lain, semua orang indonesia sebenarnya sudah menderita kp karena kuman ini dorman, sehingga endemik di negeri ini … jadi, kapan sih tbc/kp ga nyusahin?

inflasi, musuh bersama (2)

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 5:35 am

Financial Times FT.com
FT.com logo

Indonesia warns of unrest as food prices rise

By Lisa Murray in Jakarta

Published: February 27 2008 02:26 | Last updated: February 27 2008 02:26

A senior Indonesian official expressed fears on Tuesday that surging food prices might lead to social unrest similar to that which brought down Suharto as president 10 years ago.

Hundreds of meat sellers took to the streets in Jakarta last week to complain about the rising price of beef. The government was forced to cut import taxes for soyabeans in January after more than 10,000 people protested against surging prices for tofu and tempeh.

Bayu Krisnamurti, the deputy minister for agriculture, likened the potential for unrest to the situation in 1965, when an alleged communist coup prompted a bloody backlash that led to the rise of Mr Suharto.

“In 1965 we faced a very, very depressing situation of social unrest,” he said. “In 1998 we had a similar situation and we hope in 2008 it’s not another situation like that because the cost to the economy is too high.”

Severe drought in Australia in 2006 and 2007, bad harvests in Argentina and Brazil, and rising demand from China and India have pushed food prices higher around the world.

In Indonesia the price of tofu has jumped 50 per cent in the past year, rice is up 25 per cent and cooking oil almost 40 per cent.

Mr Krisnamurti called on the US to play a bigger role in solving the global food crisis. Its policy of subsidising the biofuels industry had contributed significantly to the problem, he said.

Indonesia, a big producer of crude palm oil, is one of the beneficiaries of the booming biofuels sector. But at the same time the price of local cooking oil has soared.

This month the government introduced an export tax for crude palm oil. It also cut import taxes for soyabeans, wheat and flour as part of a $4bn (€2.7bn, £2bn) package to tackle the problem of rising prices.

Jakarta is sensitive to price-related social unrest. In 2005 a doubling or more in the cost of fuel sparked protests. The government continues to spend nearly 35 per cent of its entire budget on fuel and electricity subsidies. This year it expects to spend nearly $12bn on fuel subsidies and almost $6bn keeping down the cost of electricity.

Apart from leading to more popular protests, higher food prices are also starting to work their way through the inflation numbers. Consumer prices were 7.4 per cent higher in January than a year ago, a 16-month record and above the country’s full-year inflation target of 6 per cent.

Comment: Food and the spectre of Malthus

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

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© Copyright The Financial Times Ltd 2008.

inflasi, musuh bersama

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 4:22 am

seperti ujar gw taon lalu, inflasi akan menjadi musuh global yang akan mengerikan jika tidak tertangani dengan baik, tapi apakah indon berani bertindak seperti pemerintah vietnam? mereka aja lagi kebat kebit menghadapi resistance:

Vietnam’s currency crisis causes headache
By Amy Kazmin in Hanoi /FT
Published: February 26 2008 22:22 | Last updated: February 26 2008 22:22
A severe shortage of dong, Vietnam’s currency, has been causing headaches for foreign businesses in the country as the government tries to control inflation by reining in the supply of notes.
In one sign of the currency crunch, last week Hanoi was forced to give special permission to Morgan Stanley to pay $217m in dollars for a 10 per cent stake in PetroVietnam Finance Corp, instead of making the payment in dong, as is normally required by law.
Elsewhere, an accountant for a foreign firm tried to convert $30,000 into local currency to pay staff salaries and office rent but was turned away when the bank said it did not have enough dong.
“It’s outrageous,” said a foreign executive, spurned in a recent attempt to convert dollars to dong. “We are going to have to go to the automatic teller machine and draw money out to pay salaries by hand.”
A number of foreign businesses have been affected in recent weeks, as the State Bank of Vietnam, the central bank, tries to drain liquidity from the financial system to control inflation and hold down the value of the dong against the dollar.
For the past four months, international bankers and economists said, the central bank had curbed its purchases of dollars, refusing to accommodate commercial banks seeking to offload dollars and acquire dong.
Overnight inter-bank rates for the currency have reached as high as 40 per cent recently although rates dropped last week to 9 -10 per cent when the central bank injected some additional liquidity into the system.
“The State Bank of Vietnam understands that inflation is partly caused by the rapid growth of the money supply,” said Jonathan Pincus, chief economist at the United Nations Development Program. “One way to squeeze the supply of Vietnam dong would be to stop buying dollars.”
Commercial banks in Vietnam will soon have to take another hit from the central bank, which has announced it will require big banks to buy Treasury bills at interest rates below inflation – in another move to drain liquidity from the system.
The central bank says that 41 big banks and credit organisations will have to buy a total of $1.27bn worth of one-year Treasury bills with an interest rate of 7.8 per cent.
Banks have formally protested, sending the Ho Chin Minh stock market index down 16 per cent last week.

sama2 tidak becus/cape d

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 4:05 am

di filipina juga kok:
And while Administration spokespersons like to point out that “critical mass” has not been attained because most Filipinos still believe in Gloria Arroyo, the deeper truth is that Filipinos have grown cynical and disenchanted with People Power. In 1986, they placed their lives on the line to throw out a tyrant and a dictator; in 2001, they again were prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice to remove a plunderer form office. And the euphoria that followed has been slowly replaced by disenchantment and a sense of betrayal. The new leaders they had pinned their hopes on turned out to be less than what they had expected. In fact, the unwanted influences and practices that Filipinos thought had been purged by their mass actions, seem to return in subsequent administrations.

…. hidup orang2 putih di penentuan nasib bangsa ke depan? sabun cuci menjadi pilihan utama saat penentuan nasib kayanya …. apalagi yang berteknologi paling canggih … semakin putih, semakin bersih, semakin jelas tidak ikut2an bertanggungjawab memilih calon2 pemimpin yang sami mawon dengan yang digusur sebelumnya ??

Kapan sih Nggak Susah?

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 3:38 am

Pak SBY, Kapan sih Nggak Susah?
Rabu, 27 Februari 2008 | 10:29 WIB
CELETUKAN menarik keluar dari seorang ibu muda, Fitri (25). Saat ditanya mengenai harga-harga kebutuhan pokok apa saja yang tengah melonjak, dengan penuh ekspresi ia menjawab. “Iya nih, semua-mua naik. Pusing saya. Pak SBY, kapan sih nggak susah?” kata Fitri, yang baru saja membeli satu liter minyak goreng pada Pasar Murah Minyak Goreng di Polsek Johar Baru, Tanah Tinggi, Rabu (27/2).
Fitri sangat bersuka cita bisa mendapatkan seliter minyak goreng, hanya dengan merogoh kocek Rp8000. Ia sempat bingung mengatur keuangannya. Suaminya hanya seorang buruh lepas, yang penghasilan tiap bulannya tak menentu. “Bayangin aja, telor sekarang 13 ribu se-kilo, gula 9 ribu, beras yang biasanya 3500 jadi 5 ribu, gimana saya nggak puyeng. Mana anak-anak juga kan perlu minum susu,” lanjut dia.
Kedua anak Fitri berusia 1 dan 6 tahun. Berhemat. Itulah pilihan yang tidak bisa tidak harus dilakukan masyarakat di tengah himpitan ekonomi yang semakin sulit.
Ibu Onah (56) mengakuinya. Melonjaknya harga kebutuhan pokok, terutama minyak goreng, membuat warga Tanah Tinggi ini lebih banyak masak rebus-rebusan daripada menggoreng.”Lah iya, tempe saya rebus pake santen, tahu juga. Nggak ada goreng-goreng. Nggak ada duit. Haha,” kata ibu yang gigi depannya hampir ompong semua ini.
Demi mendapatkan minyak goreng satu liter, ratusan ibu-ibu di kawasan Tanah Tinggi rela mengantre berjam-jam. Bahkan, ada yang masih lengkap dengan daster tidurnya, dan semangkok bubur untuk menyuapi anak balita dalam gendongannya. “Kalo sering-sering kayak gini, subuh buta saya mau dah ngantre,” lanjut Ibu Onah.
Jeritan Fitri ataupun Ibu Onah, mungkin menjadi jeritan seluruh masyarakat yang harus mengetatkan ikat pinggang saat ini. Semua harga kebutuhan pokok meningkat, dan tak ada kejelasan kapan akan normal kembali. Kapan nggak susah lagi, Pak SBY? (ING)

…. well, ini persoalan klasik, bahkan ada seorang tokoh agama yang bilang: orang miskin akan selalu ada bersama kalian …. negeri ini sebenernya ga pernah bener2 terentas dari kemiskinan … orang miskin ada di mana2 di indon … kemiskinan itu lah yang menjadi topik jualan partai2 n capres2 selama pemilu … tapi terus menerus ada lagi ada lagi … jadi, yang bener omongan itu atau emang kemiskinan itu takdir/predestinasi atau emang orang indon emang ga becus mengurus negaranya sendiri? … well, tiga2nya mungkin bener semua … artinya indon tidak akan pernah keluar dari lingkaran setan kemiskinan … orang miskin akan selalu bersama kita …

… itu khan artinya indon akan terus mengalami masalah ekonomi yang besar n luar biasa … tapi kok, ini anehnya, kesenjangan juga terjadi luar biasa … kesenjangan itu terutama dibiayai oleh ketidakadilan yang luar biasa … fundamental ekonomi indon katanya buruk banget … tapi daftar orang kaya indon makin hari makin banyak … well, persoalan klasik, kesenjangan makin lebar, yang kaya makin kaya, yang miskin tetap miskin …

2 persoalan klasik ini menunjukkan betapa pesimisnya hidup di indon …saking pesimisnya, bagi kelas menengah, cara teraman untuk tetap bertahan hidup adalah dengan memegang investasi emas atau euro … rupiah dijauhi, apalagi investasinya … tapi terbukti dalam 5 tahun terakhir: investasi rupiah jauh mengungguli investasi emas/ euro dalam dollar term sekali pun … jadi, mo ngoceh apa ayo: opportunity itu ada di mana-mana, bahkan duduk bareng berdiri bersama dengan orang2 miskin yang tetap miskin, bahkan di tengah2 ketidakbecusan orang sendiri … opportunity mengalahkan semua kepesimisan hidup nyata ini … itu artinya ekonomi dan finansial itu mempunyai dunianya sendiri yang aneh dan seakan2 berkuasa abis … bisa ngalahin kekuasaan yang maha kuasa?

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