eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Januari 29, 2008

neo-clintonomics era?

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 3:10 pm

will the world be a different with hillary? the economic situation is quite different from the 90’s, so it is not that a simple matter to expect clintons to make a better world than bush’s era, i think.

Kennedys for Clinton

She stands for Democrats and for the nation, these family members say.
By Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kerry Kennedy
January 29, 2008
This is a wonderful year for Democrats. Our party is blessed with the most impressive array of primary candidates in modern history. All would make superb presidents.

By now you may have read or heard that our cousin, Caroline Kennedy, and our uncle, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, have come out in favor of Sen. Barack Obama. We, however, are supporting Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton because we believe that she is the strongest candidate for our party and our country.

While talk of unity and compromise are inspiring to a nation wary of divisiveness, America stands at a historic crossroads where real issues divide our political landscapes. Democrats believe that America should not be torturing people, eavesdropping on our citizens or imprisoning them without habeas corpus or other constitutional rights. We should not be an imperial power. We need healthcare for all and a clean, safe environment.

The loftiest poetry will not solve these issues. We need a president willing to engage in a fistfight to safeguard and restore our national virtues.

We have worked with Hillary Clinton for 15 years (and in Kathleen’s case, 25 years) and witnessed the power and depth of her convictions firsthand. We’ve seen her formidable work ethic, courage in the face of adversity and her dignity and clear head in crisis. We’ve also seen her two-fisted willingness to enter the brawl when America’s principles are challenged. Her measured rhetoric, political savvy and pragmatism shield the heart of our nation’s most determined and most democratic warrior.

She has been an uncompromising and loyal ally for each of us in our battles to protect the environment and to promote human rights around the world and juvenile justice in America. Hillary is a problem-solver, listening to people and then achieving solutions by changing attitudes.

Her transformational leadership was on display when she ran for the Senate seat in New York that had been held by our father, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. She faced rabid, heavily funded attacks from the far right and the challenge of prevailing in traditionally Republican upstate New York. Traveling with her, we watched admiringly as she persuasively articulated an inspiring and unifying vision rooted in American values and history. Then, through patience, hard work, leadership and political acumen, she transformed many of those rock-solid conservative counties into solid Democratic strongholds.

We look forward to working beside her in the general election as she uses those same talents to change once rigid opinions and political affiliations across the nation.

Like our father, Hillary has devoted her life to embracing and including those on the bottom rung of society’s ladder — giving voice to the alienated and disenfranchised and working to alleviate poverty and injustice, while urging that we cannot advance ourselves as a nation by leaving our poorer brothers and sisters behind.

She’s been an equally effective champion for human rights and for women’s rights, a worldwide cause that will profit enormously by her elevation to the presidency. She has worked for peace in Northern Ireland and fought to bridge religious, racial and ethnic divides from Bosnia to the Middle East to South Africa. She has shown a rare understanding that American values can only be exported by moral leadership, by a strong home economy and by a detailed understanding of the history and cultural backdrops of the nations we engage.

She understands, as our current administration does not, the uses of power. The world, she says, is hungry for U.S. leadership but will not accept our bullying. She knows the difference and will reestablish America’s lost prestige and moral authority.

Hillary Clinton’s political career has been centered in comforting the afflicted, afflicting the comfortable and reminding Americans what it means to be American. As a young lawyer, she focused on children’s issues and legal aid. As first lady of Arkansas, she brought healthcare to rural areas and helped reform the state’s lagging education system.

As first lady, she courageously took on healthcare reform. When a massive propaganda campaign by Big Pharma and the radical right derailed her efforts, she didn’t give up. She helped create the nationally acclaimed Children’s Health Insurance Program. That kind of persistence in pursuit of our highest ideals is the brand of leadership America now requires. Inspirational leadership comes in many forms.

Seldom has history confronted America with such daunting challenges: a catastrophic foreign policy that has cost us our international leadership and aggravated the threat of terror; a misbegotten war that is squandering precious American lives and treasure; a healthcare system that leaves millions of Americans without coverage; irresponsible corporate power that is corroding our democracy and outsourcing our jobs, aggravating global warming and other environmental crises and reducing our economy to shambles.

We need a leader who is battle-tested, resilient and sure-footed on the shifting landscapes of domestic and foreign policy. Hillary Clinton will move our country forward while promoting its noblest ideals.

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is the former lieutenant governor of Maryland, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an environmental advocate and Kerry Kennedy is a human rights activist.

apakah BA = SS?

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:30 am

ba & ss adalah oknum gubernur bank sentral indonesia, sekarang keduanya menjadi sama lagi, pernah menjadi tersangka kasus korupsi … apakah itu artinya rupiah akan anjlok?

Kasus Dana BI Bisa Jadi Momentum Spekulan Goyang Pasar
Penulis: Irana Shalindra
JAKARTA–MI: Penetapan Gubernur BI Burhanuddin Abdullah beserta dua pejabat BI lainnya sebagai tersangka kasus aliran dana BI oleh Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi dikuatirkan akan dimanfaatkan para spekulan untuk menggoyang pasar uang.

“Jangan sampai masalah Burhanuddin ini menjadi pemicu bagi spekulator untuk memainkan rupiah,” ujar pengamat pasar keuangan Farial Anwar ketika dihubungi, di Jakarta, Senin (28/1).

Kendati bersalah atau tidaknya para pejabat BI tersebut belum terbukti, ia mengingatkan bahwa hal itu dapat memancing sentimen negatif pelaku pasar. Apalagi, pasar keuangan dewasa ini rentan akan berbagai gejolak.

“Kejadian ini memprihatinkan. Karena itu, BI sebaiknya meningkatkan kerjasama dengan penegak hukum untuk mempercepat penyelesaian kasus ini,” kata Farial.

Di sisi lain, ia cukup optimistis bahwa cadangan devisa Indonesia yang kini telah menembus US$58 miliar akan sanggup menahan gejolak pasar. Khususnya, aksi-aksi spekulan yang dapat mengancam stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah yang kini bergerak di kisaran Rp9.300 per dolar AS

“Cadangan devisa kita memadai untuk mengerem (gejolak) itu. Apalagi, BI kan bukan hanya Burhanuddin,” tandasnya.

Lebih lanjut, ia menengarai pasar tak bakal terkejut dengan kejadian ini. Ia mencontohkan ketika Gubernur BI terdahulu, Syahril Sabirin, ditetapkan sebagai tersangka pada kasus korupsi Bank Bali, pasar ternyata tak terlalu reaktif.

“Sepanjang belum dinyatakan bersalah, dampaknya pada pasar sepertinya tidak terlampau besar. Jadi saya kira rupiah masih belum akan terlalu bergejolak,” duga Farial. (Sha/OL-2)

S equals to….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 1:58 am

big ? ?:
Suharto’s Corrupt Legacy Lives On in Indonesia: William Pesek

Commentary by William Pesek

Enlarge Image/Details

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — “One of the nation’s finest sons.” That’s how Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono referred to former dictator Suharto, and it was hard not to feel a tinge of despair hearing the words.

On Jan. 27, Suharto died of multiple organ failure at the age of 86. Yet just ask Transparency International why the word “finest” shouldn’t apply to the man who ruled Indonesia with an iron fist for 32 years until his 1998 ouster. In its 2007 Corruption Perceptions Index, Indonesia ranked 143rd — behind Gambia, Pakistan and the Philippines.

Or ask the United Nations. In September, its Office on Drugs and Crime alleged Suharto stole as much as $35 billion, 1.3 percent a year on average of Southeast Asia’s biggest economy’s gross domestic product, during his repressive tenure (Suharto’s lawyer dismissed the report as fiction).

Or check with World Bank President Robert Zoellick. While visiting Jakarta in December, Zoellick said Indonesia needs to reduce corruption and focus on “effective” public spending to boost growth to the 9 percent level needed to raise living standards for its 235 million people.

When officials in Jakarta wonder why Moody’s Investors Service rates their foreign-currency debt three levels below investment grade, corruption is a principle reason. It also explains why Yudhoyono hasn’t attracted the $22 billion needed to build ports, roads and power plants and pull 37 million people out of poverty by adding jobs.

By saying Suharto deserves the “highest respect,” Yudhoyono reminded many investors why they avoid Indonesia.

Suharto Inc.

Suharto stepped down amid massive protests at the height of the Asian financial crisis. His ability to rule the world’s largest archipelago — 300 ethnic groups spanning 17,670 islands — proved no match for the wrath of currency traders.

Indonesia is now a democracy. Yet democracy is about more than elections and constitutions. It’s about what elected officials do once they are in office — how they level the playing field for citizens and investors alike.

Suharto is gone, but the political and financial systems he created remain. He built an economy dominated by family and friends and a military of unchecked influence. The vestiges of Suharto’s rule prevent most of the nation’s people from feeling the benefits of 7 percent growth. Indonesia, like much of Asia, learned how to grow faster, not how to grow better.

Cult of GDP

The waning days of Suharto’s life prompted a national debate about his legacy. Public opinion seemed split between those forgiving a leader who brought stability and economic growth and those demanding justice for his alleged abuses.

The nostalgia some feel for the Suharto days is among the most baffling — and maddening — elements of the post-Suharto era. It’s all about the “cult of GDP” that dominates much of Asia.

“Indonesia’s political and intellectual poverty, the repressive security apparatus — these were accepted because, economically, Suharto was a hero,” Richard Lloyd Parry wrote in his 2005 book “In the Time of Madness.” “However unhappy Indonesians were with their leader, there was no doubt that, under him, most of them had become better off.”

It’s a phenomenon that political scientists refer to as “performance legitimacy.” Suharto knew that if Indonesians felt better off, they would tolerate a stunted society.

Cronies Galore

The question always was what would happen when people start feeling poor again. The answer arrived in 1998 as Asia’s crisis swept the region and set living standards back by decades. Unprecedented numbers of protesters took to the streets.

Near the end of Suharto’s reign, members of his family held a significant share of 1,251 Indonesian companies, Lloyd Parry wrote. “Behind each of the children and the major cronies were echelons of sub-cronies and sub-sub-cronies who fanned out in their wake.”

It’s the great Suharto paradox. During his tenure, per- capita income in the fourth-most-populous nation quadrupled and the ratio of those living in absolute poverty declined from more than three people in five to about one in 10 by 1998. Yet Indonesia’s development model proved to be a house of cards that crumbled in a matter of months.

Perhaps the bigger question is how a nation as resource-rich as Indonesia — oil, gas, timber — could do so little. This is among Suharto’s biggest failings.

Kleptocracy

A decade after Suharto’s ouster, some argue corruption hasn’t been reduced, so much as decentralized. In Suharto’s day, you knew who was in charge, and who should be paid. Now, the nation’s system of graft is a more multilayered phenomenon.

Yudhoyono claims to be making progress, and I’m rooting for him. Newspapers now carry loads of stories about scandals and probes into corruption allegations. And clearly, doing away with three-plus decades of kleptocratic rule won’t be easy.

Much of Indonesia’s corruption drive has the air of window- dressing. Why not go after the real vested interests? Why not go after the Suharto family and their cronies?

Suharto escaped accountability thanks to failing health, good lawyers and protection from Indonesia’s elite. A cathartic break from the past can only come by dismantling Suharto Inc. Only when corruption is markedly reduced will the fruits of economic growth trickle down to those who need it most.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Januari 25, 2008

hix hix: republik ini lom siap….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 3:42 am

berdemokrasi … bahkan banyak orang indonesia yang merasa kecapean dan boros ngurusin proses demokrasi … mungkin mo niru2 model2 pemerintahan yang un-textbook thinking, yang sekarang merajalela di emerging markets … apa hubungannya dengan investasi ya?
Military chief says nation not ready for democracy

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesian Military (TNI) chief Gen. Djoko Santoso said Thursday recent election disputes which turned violent in some regions served notice that the nation was not prepared for democracy.

Djoko told a press conference at the conclusion of a two-day TNI leadership meeting here the military was concerned about the conflicts, which he said could endanger national unity.

“It (the conflict) is an indication, a sign, that we …are not ready to practice democracy,” he said.

He was referring to ongoing disputes between supporters of candidates in the elections for governor and deputy governor in South Sulawesi and North Maluku. The election disputes have dragged on, despite the Supreme Court’s intervention.

While acknowledging that the political implications of the disputes should not concern the military, Djoko said the TNI bore the responsibility to restore peace.

S1 KENA S2 …

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 3:26 am

… MAKSUDNYA SARJONO KENO SIO-SIO … sia-sia gitu lho … hix hix

Puluhan Sarjana Ditipu Milyaran Rupiah

Artikel Terkait:

Jumat, 25 Januari 2008 | 09:29 WIB

Laporan wartawan Kompas Windoro Adi

JAKARTA, JUMAT – Puluhan sarjana pencari kerja, diduga ditipu puluhan milyar rupiah oleh sebuah perusahaan investasi, PT Graha Finesa Berjangka (GFB), Jakarta. Korban dijanjikan gaji tinggi. Setelah terperangkap, korban diminta menanamkan modalnya di perusahaan dengan iming-iming keuntungan yang fantastis.

Salah seorang korban, Ratna Puspa, yang dihubungi Jumat (25/1) pagi menjelaskan, awalnya ia membaca sebuah lowongan kerja di sebuah harian. Ia kemudian diterima dan menjalani pelatihan selama tiga hari.

Usai menjalani pelatihan, perusahaan menjanjikan, gaji tiga bulan pertama sebesar Rp 5 juta. ”Setelah itu, saya akan digaji sesuai permintaan saya sebesar Rp 8 juta,” ungkapnya. Belum sampai tiga bulan bekerja, perusahaan dengan bujuk paksa, mendesak Ratna menanamkan modalnya. ”Perusahaan menjanjikan, kalau saya ikut menanamkan modal di tempat saya bekerja, saya akan mendapat tambahan keuntungan lumayan. Saya lalu menyetor uang sebesar Rp 100 juta. Dari investasi yang saya tanamkan itu, saya dijanjikan mendapat penghasilan 500 dollar AS dipotong biaya lain-lain sebesar 240 dollar AS,” tutur Ratna. Ia mengatakan, uang yang ditanamkan diputar di pasar modal.

Sebanyak 14 orang korban penipuan ini, hari Kamis (24/1) sekitar pukul 10.00, mengadukan kasus mereka ke Sentra Pengaduan Kepolisian Daerah Metro Jaya (SPK Polda Metro). Ke-14 nama tersebut, Lim Soei Tjoe, Inez Fayrus, Novieta Alieca, Harry Yohanes, Alfred Lim, Jenny, Yuli, Sudartono alias Desmond, Ken Eka Sakti, Brian, Reni Susanti Marten, Raini, Lilis Suwaryo, Magindran, dan Corvina. Dalam laporan yang disampaikan Lim disebutkan, PT GFB memasang iklan lowongan kerja di sebuah harian dengan tawaran gaji tinggi. Tetapi dengan syarat, para pelamar kerja harus menanamkan modalnya tanpa menyebut risikonya.

Setelah diterima bekerja, ke-14 korban lalu menanamkan modalnya yang bila ditotal mencapai Rp 1.855.000.000. Jumlah ini menurut Ratna, ternyata hanya sebagian kecil saja. Dia mengatakan, korbannya mencapai puluhan orang. Beberapa korban yang ia hubungi bahkan mengaku menanamkan modalnya hingga milyaran rupiah.

”Ada yang satu setengah, ada yang dua, atau tiga milyar,” ujar Ratna. Sayangnya, justru puluhan korban yang tertipu hingga milyaran itu yang merahasiakan hal ini karena malu. ”Kalau mau daftar kerugiannya saja, saya bisa tunjukkan,” kilah Ratna.

C Windoro AT

Januari 24, 2008

mana yang BENER (2)

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 3:40 am

…. TERIAKAN SOS (SDM) DI BURSA SAHAM GA DIHIRAUKAN, MALAH ADA YANG BERANI BILANG: AMAN, KOK, AMAN …
RI Paling Kebal dari Krisis Subprime

Kamis, 24/01/2008 10:08 WIB
RI Paling Kebal dari Krisis Subprime
Nurul Qomariyah – detikfinance

Jakarta – Indonesia menjadi salah satu negara Asia yang paling kebal dari dampak krisis subprime mortgage di Amerika Serikat. Dampak krisis tersebut ke Indonesia paling sedikit setelah India.

Berdasarkan ING Investor Sentimen Index, hanya 9% responden yang menyatakan keputusan investasi mereka sedikit banyak dipengaruhi krisis subprime dalam 3 bulan terakhir. Sementara 7% menyatakan keputusan investasinya akan dipengaruhi isu tersebut dalam 3 bulan kedepan.

“Pasar modal Indonesia yang bergairah dan sektor-sektor kunci yang berkembang pesat seperti infrastruktur, sumber daya alam, properti dan sektor keuangan membuat investor menjadi semakin yakin dan percaya diri dalam berinvestasi,” kata Robert Scholten, Presdir PT ING Securities Indonesia dalam siaran persnya, Kamis (24/1/2007).

Keyakinan ini dicerminkan oleh meningkatnya optimisme terhadap perbaikan situasi ekonomi di masa mendatang sete;ah melihat kondisi ekonomi yang stabil pada. Hal itu terlihat dari persentase responden yang merasa optimistis naik dari 47% di survei gelombang pertama menjadi 62%.

“Indonesia membukukan pertumbuhan tahunan tertinggi dalam satu dekade di tahun 2007. Faktor fundamental ekonomi seperti tekanan inflasi, defisit anggaran belanja dan pembelanjaan infrastruktur yang relatif tetap stabil telah menjadi salah faktor pendorong kepercayaan investor yang semakin meningkat,” kata Scholten.

Hal ini, lanjut dia, dikombinasikan dengan sifat dasar investor Indonesia yang lebih konservatif, menjadi faktor-faktor kunci dari positifnya pandangan investor yang berkelanjutan sepanjang akhir tahun 2007.

Dalam survei itu, terungkap bahwa investor Indonesia adalah investor yang paling optimis dengan perbaikan situasi ekonomi Amerika Serikat di masa mendatang (37%) setelah Filipina (40%). Persentase ini cukup signifikan apabila dibandingkan dengan negara-negara yang kurang optimis seperti Taiwan, Malaysia, dan Jepang dengan persentase masing-masing hanya 11%, 12%, dan 13%.

ING Investor Sentiment index dilakukan berdasarkan analisa survei triwulanan yang diprakarsai oleh ING dan dilaksanakan oleh perusahaan riset independen, TNS. Pertama kali diluncurkan pada bulan Oktober 2007, riset ini mensurvei perubahan sentimen dan perilaku investasi di 13 pasar Asia, yaitu Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Jepang, Indonesia, Malaysia, Selandia Baru, Filipina, Singapura, Korea Selatan, Taiwan, dan Thailand.

Pada survei gelombang kedua, yang dilakukan pada akhir bulan November 2007, 1.311 investor kaya diwawancara baik secara langsung atau melalui online. Survei ini tidak mencakup perkembangan terakhir seperti penurunan pasar yang terjadi akibat meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi global yang terjadi baru-baru ini. (qom/ir)

Januari 23, 2008

Harsh words from World Economic Forum:

Filed under: GLOBAL ECONOMY — bumi2009fans @ 5:57 pm

Fed’s cut triggers harsh words from Davos

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor, in Davos

Published: January 23 2008 13:07 | Last updated: January 23 2008 13:07

Reactions to the US Federal Reserve’s dramatic 0.75 percentage point cut in interest rates ranged from hostile to lukewarm as policymakers, businessmen and economists gathered at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday.

Economists at the meeting warned that the monetary easing announced on Tuesday would not succeed in boosting a sickly US economy. Moreover, they said, by reacting to turmoil in equity markets, the Fed seriously risked creating the impression that it was most concerned with ensuring investors did not lose money.

Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley said that the Fed’s policy of cleaning up after a bubble has burst was “a dangerous and reckless and irresponsible way to run the world economy”. “It was market-friendly action,” he wrote in his FT.com blog from Davos, asking: “Is that the way to run a central bank?”

Sir Howard Davies, the director of the London School of Economics and a former chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority, the UK financial regulator, agreed with Mr Roach. He said the move reminded him of the character Corporal Jones in the long-running UK sitcom Dad’s Army, who always shouted “don’t panic” just when he and everyone else were doing just that.

In one session, almost 60 per cent of the delegates voted in favour of a motion saying central banks had lost both their focus and control with respect to economic governance.

The reactions among delegates were not entirely negative, however. John Snow, chairman of Cerberus Capital Management and the former US treasury secretary said the emergency rate cut showed that “the question of whether the central bank is capable of bold action was answered yesterday”.

Jacob Frenkel, vice-chairman of AIG, added the cut was “on the mark”, indicating the drama and the severity of the situation.

But they were in a minority.

Professor Lawrence Summers of Harvard University – another former US treasury secretary – said: “It is hard to give central banks a high grade over the past two years on recognition of incipient bubbles or on their action to address them. Nor in the last six months when they were behind the curve.”

Professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University, a long-standing bear on the US and global economies, agreed and called for a more symmetric approach from the Fed. “There was a Greenspan put and now there is a Bernanke put,” he added, in reference to the perception that Fed chairmen always cut interest rates when investors lose money.

But the more worrying suggestion was that the action would not work. Professor Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University, a Nobel prize-winning economist, thought the Fed had acted “too late”. With structural forces in the US housing market and financial system likely to bring a contraction, it would be as effective as “pushing on a piece of string”.

The Economist.com says…

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 5:21 pm

while there are so many extraordinary things could be said on the possibility of global recession, but asia might still be able to perform well on the economy … i hope so…

Next stop Asia?
Jan 23rd 2008 | HONG KONG
From Economist.com

Asia should withstand a knock from an American recession
INVESTORS in Asian stockmarkets were until recently big fans of the “decoupling” theory: the notion that Asian economies can shrug off an American recession. This week’s plunge in shares, taking the MSCI Emerging Asia Index down by 25% at one point from its October high, suggests they have changed their minds. But the fact that Asian markets have not decoupled does not necessarily mean that their economies will follow America’s over a cliff.

Decoupling was always a misnomer, seeming to imply that an American recession would have no impact on Asia. In fact exports and hence profits would certainly be reduced. The pertinent argument is that they would be hurt by much less than in previous American downturns.

As well as hitting exports, America’s troubles could affect Asia through various financial channels. Asia’s exposure to the subprime mess is thought to be much smaller than that of American or European banks. Even so, Chinese bank shares tumbled this week on rumours that they would have to make much bigger write-downs on their holdings of American subprime securities. And if stockmarkets slide further as global investors flee from risky assets, this could dampen business and consumer confidence in the region.

Some Asian economies are more vulnerable than others: Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia have exports to America equivalent to 20% or more of their GDPs, compared with only 8% in China and 2% in India. There are already some ominous signs. Singapore’s exports to America are down by 11% over the past year, while Malaysia’s fell by 16%. Exports to other emerging economies and to the European Union surged, so total exports still grew by 6% in both economies. But that was much slower than at the start of the year, and the worry now is that demand from Europe has started to flag.

The growth in China’s exports to America slowed to only 1% (in yuan terms) in the year to December from over 20% in late 2006. So far the impact on GDP growth has been modest. Figures on China’s fourth-quarter GDP are to be published on Thursday January 24th and most economists expect growth to slow to a still healthy 9-10% this year.

China’s economy would probably still expand by around 8-9% even if export growth dried up. During the 2001 American recession China’s GDP barely slowed. In contrast, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia suffered full-blown recessions. America’s recession this time is likely to be deeper than in 2001 and Asia is now more integrated into the global economy. Doomsters conclude, therefore, that these economies could be hit harder this time.

The main reason to be more optimistic is that domestic demand (consumer spending and investment) is likely to remain strong and governments have more flexibility. Last year, despite a slowdown in America’s imports, most Asian economies grew faster as domestic demand speeded up. Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC, says that those who argue that Asian economies cannot decouple from America are ignoring the fact that they already have. Take Malaysia: exports to America plunged, yet its GDP growth quickened from 5.7% at the end of 2006 to 6.7% in the third quarter of last year.

Contrary to the popular view that Asia’s meltdown in 2001 was entirely due to a slump in exports, Peter Redwood, at Barclays Capital, argues that a fall in investment played a bigger role. Firms had too much debt and excess capacity, particularly in the electronics sector, which was at the heart of the American recession. Today firms are in much better shape. Capacity utilisation is high across the region; outside China investment as a share of GDP is low by historical standards; corporate balance-sheets are stronger and real interest-rates are low. Firms are therefore much less likely to slash investment than in 2001.

Macroeconomic fundamentals are also much healthier in East Asia. Large foreign-exchange reserves make countries less vulnerable to foreign shocks. Budgets are in surplus or close to balance, giving policymakers more room for a fiscal stimulus to support growth.

Thus even if Asia’s exports clearly have not decoupled from America, its economies will be hurt less than in the past. Standard Chartered forecasts that emerging Asia will grow by an average of 6.4% in 2008, down from 7.8% in 2007. In 2001 growth dropped by three percentage points to 4.2%. Financial markets were slow to realise that Asian growth and hence the profits of some companies would be dented by an American downturn. But now they risk exaggerating the damage. Economic decoupling is not a myth.

Copyright © 2008 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

Padam Saat Mulai Bersinar

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 4:06 am

… waduh, tragedi kemanusiaan lagi … calon superstar ancur sebelum bersemi … dalam dunia investasi, cut loss sering menjadi tanda kehancuran mental investor, sehingga long term investment berantakan … mirip ya? (gw sih terus terang lom pernah nonton film2nya, tapi kayanya gw minat juga sih)

Heath Ledger, Padam Saat Mulai Bersinar…
Getty Images/ Chris Jackson
Heath Ledger saat melayani penggemarnya pada pergelaran Venice Film Festival ke 64, 4 September 2007 di Venice, Italia.
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* Bintang Brokeback Mountain Ditemukan Tewas Bugil
* Ungkap Spekulasi Bunuh Diri, Heath Ledger Segera Diotopsi
* Mel Gibson Sesali Kematian Heath Ledger

Rabu, 23 Januari 2008 | 10:58 WIB

KEMATIAN aktor asal Australia Heath Ledger pasti menjadi berita yang mengejutkan kalangan perfilman dunia. Di usianya yang baru 28 tahun, Ledger mulai diperhitungkan sebagai salah satu bintang berbakat di Hollywood. Sayangnya, sinar itu meredup sebelum benar-benar bersinar.

Ledger cilik mengawali debutnya di Perth, Australia dalam pentas teater lokal sebagai Peter Pan. Pementasan saat ia berusia 10 tahun itu menjadi debut pertamanya di bidang akting. Selang enam tahun kemudian, Ledger mendapat kesempatan untuk membintangi film independen di Sydney. Kemudian, setelah melewati sejumlah film serupa yang disiarkan di jaringan televisi Australia, pemuda kelahiran 1979 ini pun mencoba peruntungannya dengan hijrah ke Los Angeles. Saat itu usianya masih 19 tahun.

Benar saja, keberuntungan pun lantas menghinggapinya. Ia mendapat peran dalam sebuah film remaja, yang kemudian mengangkat namanya, “10 Things I Hate About You.” Setelah itu tawaran untuk membintangi film serupa pun berdatangan. Namun, Ledger memilih untuk tidak menerimanya. Ia berpandangan, tak akan melakukan sesuatu yang tak disukai. “Itu bukan keputusan yang berat buat saya, meski menjadi berat bagi orang-orang di sekitar saya untuk mengerti itu,” kata Ledger dalam sebuah wawancara tahun 2001.

Sejak itu, ia semakin mahir dalam memilih peran yang tidak hanya mengandalkan tampangnya. Buktinya, sutradara sekelas Mel Gibson pun meminangnya. Mereka sukses membintangi film laga the Patriot. Sukses ini disusul dengan film “Monster’s Ball” yang kemudian membuahkan piala Oscar bagi pemeran utamanya, Halle Berry.

Film pertama yang menjadikannya pemeran utama adalah “A Knight’s Tale”. Film tersebut tergolong sukses di box office, meski selanjutnya ia kerap terkesan salah memilih film. Sebutlah “The Order”, “Four Feathers” dan “Ned Kelly” yang kurang bergaung. Namun kalau toh itu disebut kesalahan, maka Ledger telah menebusnya dengan sukses film “Brokeback Mountain” karya sutradara Taiwan, Ang Lee.

Sejak film tersebut dirilis, nama Ledger mulai diperhitungkan, dan masuk ke jajaran bintang muda papan atas. Ini adalah buah dari totalitasnya untuk menerima peran kontroversi sebagai seorang gay yang dipasangkan dengan aktor muda lainnya, Jake Gyllenhaal. Disinilah namnya masuk dalam nominasi Oscar sebagai Aktor Pemeran Utama Terbaik, meski akhirnya ia harus mengaku kalah dari sesama aktor, Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Semenjak itu, ia mendapat banyak tawaran film-film berkualitas. Seperti “I’m Not There” yang menceritakan tentang penyanyi legendaris Bob Dylan. Dalam film ini ia disandingkan bersama aktor-aktor besar seperti Cate Blanchett, Christian Bale, dan Richard Gere. Dalam pengumuman nominasi Oscar tadi malam, Cate Blanchett diganjar nominasi dalam film tersebut sebagai Aktris Pendukung Terbaik.

Proyek besar berikutnya, datang dari sekuel film “Batman Begins” berjudul “The Dark Knight”. Pada film ini ia kembali dipertemukan dengan aktor asal Wales, Christian Bale. Ledger berperan sebagai musuh Batman, The Joker. Aktor-aktor lainnya yang terpilih membintangi sekuel film yang ditunggu-tunggu penggemar Batman ini, tidak sembarangan. Sebut saja seperti Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, dan Gary Oldman. Sayangnya, Heath keburu meninggal dunia sebelum film ini dirilis pada tanggal 18 Juli tahun ini. Sehingga ia tidak sempat melihat reaksi para fans Batman yang sangat antusias dalam film arahan sutradara Christopher Nolan tersebut. (TFT/GLO)

Ya up2u lah….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 3:19 am

…. soalnya kalo bwat gw, bottom itu penting untuk contrarian, yaitu saat untuk beli (seperti tulisan gw beberapa hari yang lalu)… kalo bwat yang ikut2an dan gampang panikan, ya saatnya untuk cut loss, biarin aja … historikal, gw mah uda berpuluh-puluh kali mengalami rush di reksa dana (semua jenis reksa dana), tapi berpuluh2 kali juga gw masih berhasil gain (bahkan sampai dengan 500%) dalam jangka panjang … jadi, yang terpenting bwat investor reksa dana, long term investment … well, liat aja d!

Selasa, 22/01/2008 16:35 WIB
Pasar Finansial Ambruk, Pemilik Reksa Dana Jangan Cut Loss
Dadan Kuswaraharja – detikfinance

Jakarta – Nilai aktiva bersih (NAB) reksa dana ikut tergerus seiring gejolak di pasar finansial. Namun para investor reksa dana diminta tidak panik dan jangan melakukan cut loss atau jual untuk menutup kerugian.

Hal tersebut disampaikan Ketua Asosiasi Pengelola Reksa Dana Indonesia (APRDI) Abiprayadi Riyanto saat dihubungi detikFinance, Selasa (22/1/2008).

Berdasarkan data Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) per Senin, 21 Januari, NAB reksa dana saham untuk 30 hari terakhir tergerus cukup besar dengan kisaran 5 hingga 10%, sementara reksa dana campuran penurunan NAB-nya relatif lebih kecil.

“Sebaiknya investor jangka panjang reksa dana saham mengakumulasi lagi, mumpung lagi murah. Jika cut loss, nanti rugi karena pada saat IHSG naik, nanti dia tidak ikut menikmati kenaikan karena sudah diluar dijual,” tegas Abiprayadi.

Ia menilai, kondisi IHSG saat ini merupakan imbas dari penurunan bursa regional. Secara fundamental, kata Abi, kondisi Indonesia masih cukup baik.

“Jadi sebaiknya akumulasi reksa dana saham lagi kalau masih punya dana,” pungkasnya. (qom/ddn)

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