eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

November 30, 2007

Komunikasi langsung dengan

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 6:05 am

Teman blogger, kalo ingin bere-mail ria, silakan tinggalkan alamat e-mail anda semua di sini. nanti saya kirimi e-mail. salam,

November 29, 2007

BICARA REKSA DANA DI SINI

Filed under: Investasi Reksa Dana di Indonesia 2008 — bumi2009fans @ 1:26 am

teman2 blogger, silakan bicara reksa dana di sini! gw siap meladeninya.

November 23, 2007

a similarity?

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 5:20 am

let me put together the 2008 prediction:

Global Economics
The Stagflation Threat
November 13, 2007

By Joachim Fels

Markets worry about the rising risk of a recession caused by the swelling credit crisis and the surge in oil prices. However, while an outright recession is a serious risk, I think the more likely outcome for the advanced economies is a period of stagflation – slow or no growth and rising inflation – over the next several quarters. This poses a dilemma for central banks.

The key to the mix of ‘stag’ and ‘flation’ in the advanced economies lies in the emerging market economies. Still-strong growth in the latter should prevent the slowdown in the former from morphing into an outright recession. But emerging markets have also become a source of global inflation pressures. If central banks in the developed world react more to weaker growth than to rising inflation, as I think they will, global inflation pressures are likely to intensify further.

Market Implications: ‘Stag’ will keep the short end of yield curves supported, while ‘flation’ will lead to rising inflation premia in the longer end, especially if central banks become more dovish. The stagflation trade is to bet on steeper yield curves and a widening spread between nominal and real bond yields.

Risks: I may be underestimating central banks’ concern about inflation and their resolve to keep inflation expectations anchored even in a difficult financial market and economic environment. If central banks not only talk tough but also act accordingly, stagnation in the advanced economies could turn into recession, growth in emerging markets would be pulled down, too, and global inflation pressures would ease. Risky assets would suffer and the yield curve would flatten rather than steepen.
jo wrote on 26 October 2007:
2008: year of competitiveness…
as the usa maintains the status of the world geopolitical champion, the economic balance will shift a bit to the emerging markets … no more number one world’s public enemy foreseen … i suspect that oil prices will no longer gain popularity as it does in 2007, because the major psychological barrier for the price has been reached …. year after year, world business comunities have developed ways of controlling supply cost inflation … please, no more manipulation of oil pricing strategy …. world need a push for eliminating the social diseases, for example, the poverty and the ignorance …. inflation is still the single biggest financial threat in the coming year … would the global economy achieve more significant progress toward its real goal i.e. poverty eradication next year? …. i doubt it …. even in the major developed countries the poverty condition is still a headache, the rich becomes richer, while the poor becomes poorer … i predict those are as the major themes for the global economy, still, for 2008 … these economic fundamentals will bring the competitiveness for survival, especially in the 60 countries which are included in the biggest economic capacities of the world … asia pacific region may still be the leader for global economic growth … big multilateral financial institutions, such as imf, have make indications that 2008 will make another round of global gdp growth … but to a slow one …. i believe that the usa should be able to exit from the economic slowdown … the china mainland should not be disturbed in their growth achievement, but a lower one as well … global inflation should be more addressed next year or the world may erase the peak performances for decades … welcome the year of lesser traditional natural resources … we’ll see u then …

November 21, 2007

Even smart people tend to be ignorance…

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:55 am

smart people could speak louder on how critical the situation was … near recession situation this coming quarter… the recession in 2008 is a predictably fact in the us … smart people understand correctly the imminent threat to the macroeconomy of their country … smart people blindedly believe all things are only problem … smart people forget on how they solve the problem … the problem is how could smart people prevent a recession? Recession prevention is the key theme for them to resolve this coming quarter … Shorter period of recession like in 2001-2002 is what we need they recommend on steps to make in 4th quarter … should they make a brilliant moves toward turning around the worst situation is what the smart things people expect from them … brilliant moves like Greenspan did previously!

November 17, 2007

dari krisis ke ambruk ….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 6:44 am

beneran … apa pengaruhnya bwat indonesia dan asia? great global depression? ganti gubernur bank sentral amrik? will Bernanke go? Recalls Greenspan? mata uang apa yang paling berpengaruh: euro, yuan, cable, or gold?
With the Recession Becoming Inevitable the Consensus Shifts Towards the Hard Landing View. And the Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown
Nouriel Roubini | Nov 16, 2007
It is increasingly clear that by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months. Those of us who warned for the last 12 months about a combination of a worsening housing recession, a severe credit crunch and financial meltdown, high oil prices and a saving-less and debt-burdened consumers being on the ropes causing an economy-wide recession were repeatedly rebuffed the consensus view about a soft landing given the presumed resilience of the US consumer.

But the evidence is now building that an ugly recession is inevitable. Thus, the repeated statements by Fed officials that they may be done with cutting the Fed Funds rate are both hollow and utterly disingenuous. The Fed Funds rate will be down to 4% by January and below 3% by the end of 2008.

More revealing of the change in mood the financial press and some of the most prominent market analysts are coming to the realization that a recession is highly likely. The Economist has a cover story and long piece arguing that a US recession highly likely (and citing this author’s work with Menegatti and our views on the inevitability of such a recession).

More importantly, on Wall Street some of the leading analysts that had been in the soft landing camp for the last year have now moved their forecast in the direction of hard landing. It is not just David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch who has been informally in the hard landing camp and is now explicitly talking about a consumer recession. It is not just Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs who was always more bearish relative to the soft landing consensus and is today explicitly talking about a US recession and a credit crunch reducing lending by $2 trillion.

Even in soft landing houses such as Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan the tone is completely different now. At Morgan Stanley Steve Roach was the in-house bear while Richard Berner (a most sophisticated economist and analyst) was the in-house soft landing optimist. With Roach now gone to run Morgan Stanley Asia, the commentary by Richard Berner has become increasingly darker. And the latest Monday piece by Berner is titled “The Perfect Storm for the US Consumer” where his points on the headwind forces hitting the US consumer are completely overlapping with my analysis of such risks in my recent “The Coming US Consumption Slowdown that Will Trigger an Economy-Wide Hard Landing. Berner starts with

“Serious pressures are mounting on the US consumer on five fronts: Job growth is slowing, surging energy and food quotes are draining purchasing power, adjustable rate mortgages are resetting, lending standards are tightening, and housing wealth will likely decline. Do these dark clouds finally and ominously herald the perfect consumer storm?”
And he concludes with:

“Risks to the consumer are rising, and the risk of outright US recession is higher now than at any time in the past six years: Housing is in sharp decline, consumers are vulnerable, and companies may cut capital spending and liquidate inventories. A strong contribution from global growth is still a huge positive, but spillovers from US weakness to trading partners may hobble that lone source of strength. These pressures could last longer or be more intense than I expect. And even if the economy skirts overall recession, corporate earnings will likely decline.”
An even more persistently bullish bank was JP Morgan that kept on warning for the last year that the biggest risks to the US economy was not a growth slowdown but rather a growth pickup and the risk that inflation would surprise on the upside and force a behind-the-curve Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate above 6%. This analysis obviously proved wrong and now the very smart – but mistaken – Bruce Kasman has had to throw in the towel and accept that the downside risks to grow are sharp and that the Fed will cut the Fed Funds rate to 4%. As he put it in his latest note:

US outlook change: More drag, more ease — Drags from energy, and credit tightening push GDP forecast to 1% on average for current and upcoming quarter — Fed is likely to recognize growing downside risk and ease 50bp, to 4% by end of 1Q08 — December meeting outcome remains close, but we now expect 25bp move from a proactive Fed As the US moves through the fourth quarter, incoming economic news remains consistent with our forecast of a growth “pot hole”. Powerful drags now in place — from tighter credit conditions and an intensified contraction in residential investment — are evident in the decline in output and employment in the goods producing industries and in a slowing in consumption spending…. …three developments over the past month look set to increase downward pressure on growth.

• Oil on the boil. Global crude oil prices rose more than $10 dollars during October, and has held at an elevated level this month. If current levels are maintained, it would represent a drag on annualized household income of approximately one percentage point between now and the end of the first quarter. This drag, which has yet to have been felt, adds to the forces weighing on consumer spending.

• Temporary lifts to fade. Although an upward revision to 3Q07 growth to close to 5% now looks likely, this outcome is partly borrowing from growth in the quarters ahead. Defense spending, which has grown at a 9% annualized pace in the past two quarters, is almost certainly due for a pause. And a significant upward revisions to inventory building in 3Q07, points to an adjustment ahead. Indeed, the latest rise in ISM customer inventory index, combined with auto production schedules pointing to cutbacks through year end, suggests that stockbuilding is likely to subtract from growth this quarter and next.

• Credit tightening broadens. Results of the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officers Survey indicates that credit conditions are tightening broadly and that demand for credit is slowing. Most recently, credit conditions have tightened significantly for commercial construction projects with CMBS securitizations plunging over the past couple of months. While the quantitative effects of this tightening is hard to measure, credit conditions look set to remain tight for a longer period than anticipated in our current forecast.

Taken together, these developments warrant a downward revision to an already sluggish growth forecast for the coming quarters. The trajectory of GDP growth is being lowered by one half percentage point per quarter through the middle of 2008, with the path of consumption, stockbuilding, and nonresidential construction activity shouldering much of the burden. During this quarter and next, GDP growth is expected to be particularly soft, averaging a meager 1% percent. The underlying resiliency of the US corporate sector will be severely tested through a period in which profits are expected to contract. While we continue to believe that firms are unlikely to retrench in a manner that produces a recession, the risks of a recession remain uncomfortably high. We currently place the risk of a recession taking hold in the coming two quarters at 35%. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that it is willing to act preemptively in the face of elevated recession risks. Having moved 75bp in two meetings, its October statement signalled that it viewed the risks to growth and inflation as balanced — a message that the bar for further easing was high. Against this backdrop, the Fed will need to shift materially its perceptions of risks about the outlook in the direction of our forecast change to produce ease. We now believe such a shift will take place and produce 50bp of additional ease by the end of the 1Q08.

When the most prominent and respected and sophisticated “soft-landing” analysts on Wall Street turn this bearish and start talking about high probability of a recession and downside risks to growth and of a consumer recession you know that these are code words for admitting implicitly – short of an official and explicit endorsement of such view that very few analysts of Wall Street can afford to have because of sell-side research constraints – that they believe that a recession is highly likely.

So at this point the debate is less and less on whether we are going to have a recession that looks inevitable; but it is rather moving towards a debate on how deep, protracted and severe such a recession will be. But the financial and real risks are much more severe than those of a mild recession.

I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before. In this extreme scenario whose likelihood is increasing we could see a generalized run on some banks; and runs on a couple of weaker (non-bank) broker dealers that may go bankrupt with severe and systemic ripple effects on a mass of highly leveraged derivative instruments that will lead to a seizure of the derivatives markets (think of LTCM to the power of three); a collapse of the ABCP market and a disorderly collapse of the SIVs and conduits; massive losses on money market funds with a run on both those sponsored by banks and those not sponsored by banks (with the latter at even more severe risk as the recent effective bailout of the formers’ losses by theirs sponsoring banks is not available to those not being backed by banks); ever growing defaults and losses ($500 billion plus) in subprime, near prime and prime mortgages with severe known-on effect on the RMBS and CDOs market; massive losses in consumer credit (auto loans, credit cards); severe problems and losses in commercial real estate and related CMBS; the drying up of liquidity and credit in a variety of asset backed securities putting the entire model of securitization at risk; runs on hedge funds and other financial institutions that do not have access to the Fed’s lender of last resort support; a sharp increase in corporate defaults and credit spreads; and a massive process of re-intermediation into the banking system of activities that were until now altogether securitized.

When a year ago this author warned of the risk of a systemic banking and financial crisis – a combination of global liquidity and solvency/credit problems – like we had not seen in decades, these views were considered as far fetched. They are not that extreme any more today as Goldman Sachs is writing today on the risk o a contraction of credit of the staggering order of $2 trillion dollars in the next few years causing a severe credit crunch and a serious recession. As I will flesh out in a forthcoming note the risks of such a generalized systemic financial meltdown are now rising. Hopefully by now some folks at the New York Fed and at the Fed Board are starting to think about this most dangerous systemic financial crisis that could emerge in the next year and what to do to prepare for it.

terus aja krisisnya….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 6:31 am

kata pengamat, krisis kredit perumahan amrik yang dilatarbelakangi investasi risiko paling tinggi, masih akan berlanjut abis2an …. malah akan memerosokkan amrik ke dalam jurang inflasi tinggi sampai ekspor dan konsumsi rakyat amrik kembali ke situasi pra-prahara kredit macet… namanya juga prediksi, liat aja d …
This crisis goes on and on and on
By: Wolfgang Munchau

After the housing crisis and the credit crisis, now comes the US consumer confidence crisis. It is time to admit that the US economy is headed for a serious economic downturn – much bigger than suggested by the central bankers’ euphemism when they talk about “downside risks to growth”.

The world economy can now look forward to confronting four ugly and partly interrelated shocks at the same time: a US economy heading for the rocks, a rise in global inflation, a collapse in the dollar’s exchange rate and a credit market crisis.

I was a pessimist on the severity of the credit crisis from the outset, but events turned out even worse. I would now expect the time horizon of this financial crisis to be measured in years rather than in weeks or months. My own guess is that we are about 10 per cent through this, in terms of timing, less than 10 per cent in terms of costs to the financial sector, and much less in terms of the macroeconomic impact.

The reason why this crisis is so nasty has to do with the deep inter-linkages within the credit market, and between the credit market and the real economy.

Take, for example, a synthetic collateralised debt obligation, one of the most complicated financial instruments ever invented. It consists of a couple of credit default swaps, credit linked notes, total return swaps, all jointly connected in a wiring diagram that looks as though the structure was about to explode.

And, as many people with credit cards and housing debt in the US know, the linkages between the credit market and the real economy are only too real.

The credit crisis affects the world economy asymmetrically. The Anglosphere is harder hit than the rest of the world. The eurozone and Asia are much less dependent on consumer credit for economic growth. And, despite some spectacular early examples to the contrary, the eurozone banking system is holding up surprisingly well.

For example, Deutsche Bank said last week that there would be no further subprime-related write-offs. The French banks are also in relatively good shape. So one should expect the credit-related economic downturn to be much harder in the US than in the eurozone, where it probably follows on eventually, but with some delay.

One of the most important adjustment mechanisms is the dollar’s exchange rate. The euro is now closing in on $1.50. No matter whether you are looking at global monetary policy or at US growth forecasts, inflation or other technical factors, there is not much left to support the dollar.

Avinash Persaud, a well-known foreign-exchange expert, believes that the euro will go up to $1.70. I am not sure about the exact magnitude, but would certainly agree about the direction.

The only factor that could mitigate, or even prevent, an outright recession in the US is a very sharp further fall in the dollar.

What turns a spanner into this adjustment mechanism is the rise in global inflation. The big question is not whether the economic downturn or the rise in inflation currently poses the bigger threat. The really troubling question is whether both can happen at the same time.

Unless there is a steep fall in oil and food prices soon, there is a strong possibility of stagflation in the US next year. In such a situation, there are no easy policy choices. Monetary policy will probably not be able to support the economy in the way it did in past recessions.

Even a further decline in the dollar might not do the trick. When the recession finally strikes, corporate and private bankruptcies would almost certainly start to rise, which may well trigger the next crisis in the credit market.

How will this adjustment process end? There are several possibilities. The best outcome would be a symmetric slowdown in global economic growth – enough to take pressure off global inflation, but not big enough to do any damage – plus a gradual slide of the dollar, ideally against the currencies of countries with a high current-account surplus with the US.

If you are an optimist, stick with this scenario.

A less benign scenario would be an economic implosion in China, where annual inflation has gone up from around 2 per cent at the beginning of the year to more than 6 per cent in September and October. Unless China starts to revalue the renminbi, Chinese inflation may well go through the roof and do real damage. When that happens, the world could be a little less flat for a while.

Another possibility would be a devaluation-cum-inflation scenario in the US, with the euro at $2 and the pound at $3. Such an extreme devaluation in the dollar might well be accompanied by a permanent rise in US inflation. This could lead to extreme shifts of global trade and financial flows, and most policymakers would probably want to avoid this. I would not bet any hard currency on it.

There are undoubtedly many other adjustment scenarios, all difficult to pin down, given the prevailing uncertainties. The various adjustments will have to happen in any case, so it is probably better for them to happen now.

In a couple of years, it will be over. The bad news is that this is an environment in which it is easy for policymakers to make mistakes – and some probably will.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

November 7, 2007

Year to date GAIN

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 1:54 am

s/d 6 November 2007 (dibandingkan dengan harga tanggal 22 Desember 2006:
reksa dana pendapatan tetap (berbasis harga surat utang negara/pemerintah/bank sentral jangka menengah/panjang, dan atau obligasi korporasi, yang fluktuatif)
fortis prima 6,67%
fortis rupiah plus 6,83%
manulife obligasi negara indonesia 4,81%
manulife obligasi unggulan 8,19%
pmn amanah syariah 12,03% (top di antara investasi rks dn fixed income yang gw punya)
schroder dana mantap plus 8,93%

reksa dana campuran (berbasis pada harga2 sejumlah saham pilihan, obligasi, dan deposito atau pasar uang, yang fluktuatif)
manulife dana campuran: 34,14%
schroder dana terpadu II: (dibandingkan harga tgl 17 November 2006) 38,01%

reksa dana saham (berbasis pada harga2 sejumlah saham pilihan, dan pasar uang)
fortis ekuitas: 77,30%
manulife dana saham: 57,14%
phinisi dana saham: 56,32%
schroder dana istimewa: 66,16%
schroder dana prestasi plus: 53,07%

gain pada beberapa saham pilihan yang gw sama sekali ga punya (terhadap harga saham penutupan tgl 20 Desember 2006):
indosat : 50,44%
telkom : 13,71% (luar binasa…. he3)
astra international: 62,26%
tambang timah: 464,63%
aneka tambang : (post split, terhadap harga 27 Juli 2007) 23,48%
pt batu bara bukit asam: (terhadap harga tgl 9 Oktober 2007) 35,56%

gain pada indeks harga saham gabungan adalah: (terhadap ihsg tgl 20 Desember 2006): 51,81%

gain harga emas : (dibandingkan harga tgl 15 Desember 2006) 30,11%

suku bunga deposito rata2 per tahun (2007): 4-8% sebelum dipotong pajak penghasilan

BI Rate : 8,25%

GAIN TERTINGGI : tambang timah (464,63%).
GAIN TERENDAH : suku bunga deposito per tahun (4-8%).

berarti GAIN gw tetap moderat-low: 77,30% – 4,18%.

Aduh, anak gw lagi sibuk nih….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 1:40 am

jadi ga ngurusin soal investasi, yang paling penting dalam hidupnya saat ini adalah belajar karena minggu depan exam (begitu sebutannya) … tapi sempet2nya doi bilang lage maen game online sebentar … dasar anak2 … sementara investasinya masih berjalan terus, hasilnya:
waktu beli manulife dana saham
tgl 03 November 2003: (nilai aktiva bersih/harga beli/jual) per unit: 1.212,01
sekarang harganya setelah 4 taon:
tgl 06 November 2007: 6.667,30
GAIN = 450,10%

selama 4 taon banyak sekali peristiwa yang terjadi dan semuanya berpengaruh terhadap bursa saham dan indeks harga saham gabungan, yang akhirnya juga berdampak kepada GAIN manulife dana saham …. tetapi semuanya dicuekin oleh anak gw … ya, karena doi ga peduli … doi baru peduli kalau setiap bulan naeknya 100% … wow, dasar pemimpi (tapi mungkin kale, kalo inves di option) …. pasive incomer kah anak gw?

November 1, 2007

1 MILYAR RUPIAH

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 1:23 am

…. kelihatan menyilaukan ya…. apalagi kalo bener ada di rekening tabungan/deposito atas nama anda … nah, persoalannya, untuk mencapai itu ada banyak jalan tapi sekaligus ada banyak risiko …. maukah kita menempuh jalan2 itu atau juga risiko2nya?

salah satu jalan yang ditawarkan oleh seorang agen asuransi top adalah menabung 1 jt rupiah (tambah lagi) setiap bulan… jadi, bulan 1: 1 jt; bulan 2: 2jt, dst…. kalo gw ga salah ingat, doi bilang dengan bunga tetap 8% per tahun tapi bunga berbunga selama 14 tahun, maka deposito anda dari 1 jt awalnya (dan tambah lagi 1 jt setiap bulan) akan berkembang biak menjadi 1 Milyar rupiah … ternyata setelah gw cek, harusnya 25% pertahun baru tahun ke 14, 1M di tangan kita (lihat attachment gw) … (kalo gw juga keliru, tolong dikoreksi ya)
silakan mainkan angka di kotak jingga…. 0.25=25%… anda bisa rubah ke 0.08=8% … ternyata 1M itu susah juga ya dapatnya …. bayangkan mana ada bank yang mo kasi kita 25% pertahun sekarang, apalagi terus menerus selama 14 taon … republik mimpi kale … nah salah satu jalan lain adalah investasi reksa dana … untuk yang bisa mencapai angka 20-30% pertahun, menurut pengalaman gw selama 5 tahun terakhir, adalah reksa dana campuran …. jadi, ini baru tahun ke 5 sih, jadi masih 9 tahun lagi, apakah akan tetap sebesar itu? pertanyaan yang cuma bisa dijawab lewat pengalaman juga, tapi pengalaman yang akan terjadi … hehehehheh … jalan lain, mungkin dengan mempunyai 2 properti, 1 buat rumah tinggal sendiri, 1 buat investasi cari yang murah meriah di daerah yang cukup strategis, sekitar 100 jt-an … investasi rumah mungkin saja mencapai hasil investasi 5-100% per tahun, jadi peluang mendapatkan angka 25% pertahun cukup besar … cara lain, mungkin dengan membeli emas, karena dalam 4 tahun, emas sudah naik kira2 80%-an, jadi angka 25% begitu dekat …. cara lain, yang lebih cepat mungkin dengan menabung di bank2 yang memberi hadiah 1M … cara lain, pikir aja sendiri d … hehehehhe …. (FILE EXCELL UNTUK KALKULASI METODE MENABUNG MENURUT USUL AGEN TERSEBUT ADA DI JO, SILAKAN TINGGALIN PESAN KALO MINAT)

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