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Agustus 31, 2007

10 years after….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 1:34 am

people memory of diana keep alive … the mystery surrounding her death becomes more and more fascinating … today, every effort to erase her legacy is in vain …

Iklan

Agustus 29, 2007

credit is the economy’s life blood…

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 12:59 am

in other words, the credit equals to the trust, like I said on the 16th of August 2007 in this blog….the following news is the aftermath minutes by the fed and the analysis of the minutes:

On Wall Street, stocks sank further as the Fed minutes failed to soothe investors, who were hoping for a stronger sign about a cut to the federal funds rate. The Dow Jones industrials plunged 280.28 points to close at 13,041.85.
Fears that the painful housing slump and credit crunch could hurt the economy have gripped Wall Street investors in recent weeks, causing stocks to swing wildly.
Credit is the economy’s life blood. If it becomes too hard to get, spending and investment by people and businesses can stall, short-circuiting economic growth.
Fed policymakers at the Aug. 7 meeting were hopeful that the economy would be able to weather the financial storm. They predicted the economy would grow modestly in coming quarters. However, they recognized that problems in housing, with bad mortgages and the fallout on Wall Street were raising increasing risks to the economy.
“Several participants noted the risks that house prices could decline significantly and that credit standards for home equity loans could be tightened substantially as factors that could weigh on consumer spending,” the minutes said.
On the business side, “participants recognized that conditions in corporate credit markets could change rapidly, and that adverse effects on business spending were possible,” according to the minutes.
A lessened appetite by people and businesses to spend and invest would slow overall economic activity.
The economy had rebounded in the spring, although the sour housing market was expected to be a damper on economic activity. After the credit crunch took a turn for the worse in August, economists said they expected housing’s problems to drag on into next year.
Fed policymakers at the Aug 7 meeting said “the adjustment in the housing sector could well prove to be both deeper and more prolonged than had seemed likely earlier this year.”
At that meeting, the Fed determined that the “downside risks to growth had increased somewhat.” Even so, the Fed continued to identify inflation as the biggest risk for the economy.
By Aug. 17 as the credit crunch spread and financial markets grew more turbulent, the Fed found the “downside risks to growth have increased appreciably,” a grimmer assessment than it had offered earlier in the month. Fed policymakers, in their new assessment, did not mention the threat of inflation.
“You can see how the Fed’s attitude toward reducing rates has changed,” said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. “The minutes showed that the Fed was much more concerned about the credit situation than its Aug. 7 public statement let on,” said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.

Agustus 28, 2007

jules verneism…

Filed under: Medicine — bumi2009fans @ 2:04 am

August 27th, 2007

Russian scientist predicts appearance of a new human being to live 200 years

Abstract:
Valeria Praid, a member of the Russian Transhumanistic Movement and expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ center for civilization studies, believes the time is at hand when a ‘post-human’ will appear on the earth, endowed with abilities supernatural by today’s standards.

‘The one called human being today will be ‘retarded human being’ in 20 or 30 years’ time. The genetic engineering, nanotechnology, neuro-pharmaceutics, artificial limbs and direct ‘brain-machine’ interfaces will develop so much as to allow the creation of a post-human. His abilities will exceed ours’ tenfold’, she said in an interview published by the Profil magazine on Monday.

Agustus 27, 2007

after the bottom seen….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:44 am

bearish trend being wiped out by bullish trend, as at the moment, asian bourses are gaining:
^AORD All Ordinaries 6,191.50 9:47PM ET 104.30 (1.71%)
^SSEC Shanghai Composite 5,169.43 Aug 24 61.76 (1.21%)
^JKSE Jakarta Composite 2,165.70 Aug 24 22.59 (1.05%)
^KLSE KLSE Composite 1,273.52 Aug 24 10.10 (0.79%)
^N225 Nikkei 225 16,421.89 9:27PM ET 172.92 (1.06%)
^NZ50 NZSE 50 4,081.96 10:21PM ET 29.51 (0.73%)
compared to:
the 17th of august 2007 numbers
^AORD All Ordinaries 5,876.70 11:00PM ET 206.40 (3.64%)
^SSEC
Shanghai Composite 4,828.83 10:29PM ET 172.26 (3.70%)
^HSI
Hang Seng 21,147.16 10:01PM ET 760.03 (3.73%)
^BSESN
BSE 30 14,141.52 Aug 17 0.00 (0.00%)
^JKSE
Jakarta Composite 2,003.33 11:00PM ET 94.70 (4.96%)
^KLSE
KLSE Composite 1,191.55 Aug 17 16.06 (1.33%)
^N225
Nikkei 225 15,836.57 10:30PM ET 562.89 (3.69%)
^NZ50
NZSE 50 3,980.44 10:40PM ET 86.10 (2.21%)
^STI
Straits Times 3,271.86 10:59PM ET 141.15 (4.51%)
or comparing to:
jkse on 24-07-07: at 2401… the rebound is here now.

investor itu para ibu RT

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:27 am

…. begitulah kenyataannya di jepang dan china … di indonesia juga sih … tapi jumlahnya ga seberapa … di jepang, mungkin jutaan, di china, puluhan juta ibu RT … di indo mungkin kurang dari 1000 orang …. tapi pelan tapi pasti, orang-orang kaya bertambah jumlahnya, dan anehnya, mereka orang-orang biasa yang berprilaku mengikuti mayoritas kaum menengah di amrik n eropa yang banyak menimba wealth-effect dari bursa saham melalui reksa dana, utamanya …. kenapa para ibu RT? jelas, karena mereka para pengangguran tapi punya modal yang cukup (ga kaya seperti para suami atau mantan suami mereka sih…) …. mereka punya cukup waktu dan kemampuan berpikir untuk menyerap informasi dan menganalisis info serta bertindak sesuai keyakinan mereka pada saatnya …. di china, mereka berhasil mengerek indeks bursa saham shanghai ratusan persen sejak 2004 …. di jepang, mereka berhasil membuat yen carry trade phenomenon … artinya, mereka meminjam aset dalam bentuk yen dengan bunga pinjaman yang mendekati 0% … lalu mereka beli mata uang asing untuk diinvestasikan pada aset2 kelolaan dalam mata uang asing tersebut … misalnya, ke australian dollar, karena suku bunga deposito bank2 di australia adalah sekita 6% atau lebih … jadi ada margin spread yang lumayan besar … lalu bursa saham australia juga stabil karena banyak sekali dipengaruhi oleh sektor pertambangan dan pertanian australia yang berkembang pesat akibat perkembangan ekonomi china … begitu lah, jika ibu RT jepang menarik asetnya dari australia, maka yen akan menguat (unwind yen carry trade) … jika ibu RT jepang mulai berinvestasi lagi ke aset di australia, maka yen melemah (yen carry trade) … fenomena ini akan terus terjadi selama investasi global masih tetap stabil … ketika krisis global akibat sub-prime mortgage macet terjadi, unwind yen carry trade lah yang terjadi, yen menguat banget …. menarik untuk menyimak, betapa orang-orang biasa yang sebenarnya menurut penelitian memiliki kecerdasan matematika yang tinggi ini, mampu menginvestasikan secara produktif aset2 finansial mereka … apakah para ibu RT di indonesia akan menjadi lebih banyak berkecimpung di bursa aset finansial juga?

minggu lalu….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:07 am

indonesia dikejutkan oleh pernyataan sby agar para penculik membebaskan seorang anak pengusaha yang kebetulan muslim … keesokannya, polisi berhasil meringkus 5 orang penculiknya dan sanderanya seorang bocah berhasil diselamatkan … ternyata 5 orang itu terkait dengan sebuah sma negeri di jakarta … tragisnya ke5nya juga terkait dengan kegiatan ekstrakurikuler yang berbau keagamaan … salah seorang ayah penculik sangat kaget dengan kenyataan itu … karena anaknya sebenarnya soleh dan rajin beribadah, tapi kok bisa-bisanya terlibat sebagai penculik seorang bocah dengan meminta tebusan 1 M …. biasa lah, kegiatan agama yang tidak kritis sama sekali membuat para pengikutnya menjadi sangat tidak wajar berprilaku …. self-criticism hanya berlaku jika kepentingan seseorang yang dihormati dipenuhi oleh pengikutnya … contoh sederhana, di sebuah kota kecil di jawa tengah ada seorang kyai yang amat disegani dan tokoh legendaris dalam sejarah keagamaan di daerah itu … sang kyai mengeluarkan semacam fatwa, bahwa darah seorang bule belanda (waktu itu menjajah indonesia) adalah halal … artinya, jika seorang bule belanda dibunuh, sang pembunuh terbebas dari hukuman akhirat karena dosa pembunuhan … “fatwa” lainnya adalah, mengambil harta orang chinese adalah halal, artinya harta mereka boleh dijarah sampe abis tuntas, asal nyawa mereka tetap terjaga … daerah2 semacam itu dan kyai2 seperti ini memang banyak di indonesia, bahkan di negara2 berkembang …. lagi2 self-criticism hanya berlaku jika kepentingan sang idola agama terjamin … agama sebagai kritik sosial menjadi lumpuh…. mungkin kah pengikut keagamaan selalu bertanya lagi setiap hari: apakah yang saya yakini adalah suatu keyakinan yang wajar? … pengikut agama apa pun bisa terjerumum pada pengalaman dan keyakinan yang sama, yaitu membungkam self-criticism …

Agustus 20, 2007

on 11th august 2007

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 5:20 pm

i wrote that the fed is too late (please read by yourself)… and now the world renowned economist claims that the fed might not be able to prevent the us recession anyway …

The Forthcoming Fed Rate Cuts May Not Prevent a US Hard Landing
Nouriel Roubini | Aug 17, 2007
The Fed finally acknowledged today the risk of a serious US economic slowdown given the current financial and credit markets turmoil. More important than the symbolic 50bps cut in the discount rate was the move – in today’s FOMC statement – from the semi-neutral bias of the last few months (“semi” as inflation was still their predominant concern until recently) to a clear easing bias today. Essentially today the Fed telegraphed a certain Fed Funds rate cut at the September meeting and possibly more cuts in the months ahead.
The statement was very clear in signaling an easing bias and a policy cut ahead: “Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth forward.” The statement also pointed that “the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably”. And it clearly signaled that the FOMC is “prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.”

The stress on the downside risks to growth and the failure of the statement to even mention the “I” word (Inflation) suggests that, in about a week since the previous FOMC meeting, concerns about inflations as the predominant risk have faded and concerns about growth have sharply increased. For a Fed that – until recently – was in the soft landing camp (slowdown of growth but still moderate pace of growth) today’s statement is a signal that they are starting to worry about a hard landing of the economy. For the first time in over a year the Fed is now implicitly admitting that they underestimated the downside growth risk: until now the official Fed view was that the housing recession was contained and bottoming out and not spilling over to other sectors of the economy; and that the sub-prime problems were also a niche and contained problem. The sudden shift to a strong easing bias suggests that the Fed miscalculated until now the damage to the economy and to financial markets of the housing recession and its real and financial spillovers.
Even before this tightening in financial conditions following the recent market turmoil economic growth was weakening: a deepening housing recession; a saving-less and debt-burdened US consumer buffeted by many shocks (high oil and gasoline prices, falling home values, falling home equity withdrawal, slackening labor markets, tightening mortgage markets) and slowing down its consumption to 1.3% in Q2 (and further down in August based on the most recent data); a corporate sector on a real investment strike (with capex spending on software and equipment growing a dismal 2.3% in Q2).
Now with financial conditions significantly tightening in credit and financial markets the shock to private consumption, real capex investment of the corporate sector, and residential investment will be even more severe, thus increasing the risks of a US hard landing (either a growth recession with growth below 1% or an outright recession). You have the beginning of a severe credit crunch in mortgage markets (not just sub-prime but also near prime and prime mortgages) and in consumer credit (especially non-credit card consumer debt); a severe tightening of credit conditions for anything related to real estate (housing, non residential real estate) and mortgages; and a sharp increase in credit spreads for the corporate sector that will push down corporate capex spending. Add to all this rising risk aversion, panic, fall in consumers, corporate, investors’ confidence that are important drivers of durable and capital spending decisions and you have all the conditions for a US hard landing.
Will the Fed be able to rescue the economy and avoid the hard landing? This is quite unlikely in my view.
First, as argued here before we are facing an insolvency crisis for many agents in the economy, not just a liquidity crunch. Given the serious insolvency – rather than just illiquidity- among many economic agents (many mortgage-burdened households, dozens of mortgage lenders, many homebuilders, some hedge funds and financial institutions, some distressed corporates) a modest Fed easing in the fall – even a likely 75bps cumulative cut by December – will not make much of the difference as you cannot solve an insolvency problem by throwing liquidity at it. The de-leveraging of a massive Minskian credit bubble has barely started and easy money will not be able to reverse this credit downturn. This is a much more serious credit crisis and crunch than the liquidity crunch around the LTCM near collapse in 1998.
Second, even the currently prices Fed rate cuts will not be able to restore normal conditions in credit and financial markets given the widespread uncertainty about the losses from subprime and other mortgages and given the uncertainty about which institutions are at risk. Equity markets have moderately rallied today but the credit crunch in highly illiquid instruments will remain and keep markets and investors on the hedge. And news of further downgrades, delinquencies, insolvencies and stresses in pockets of markets and in financial institutions will keep investors highly nervous and risk averse.
Third, the economic slowdown is already underway and given the glut of housing, autos and durable goods in the economy the demand for these goods will be relatively insensitive to interest rates. In 2001 and on the Fed aggressively cut the Fed Funds rate, from 6.5% to 1% by 2004; and long rates fell by 200bps in that period; still the 2001 recession was not avoided given the then glut of tech capital goods and real investment fell by 4% of GDP between 2000 and 2004. Once there is a glut of capital goods – then tech good, today housing, autos and consumer durables – Fed easing is like pushing on a string and becomes less effective as it takes time to work out such a glut.
Thus, at this point what the Fed will do in the next few weeks and months may be too little too late to prevent a US hard landing.

after dust settled (2)….

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 3:12 am

THE FED EFFECT (20 August, 07)
after cutting lending rate to banks to 5.75% from 6.25%; but the fed funds rate is still 5.25%
all indexes are on positive (except the malaysian bourse, because of delayed numbers)
^AORD All Ordinaries 5,876.70 11:00PM ET 206.40 (3.64%)
Components, Chart, More ^SSEC
Shanghai Composite 4,828.83 10:29PM ET 172.26 (3.70%)
Chart, More ^HSI
Hang Seng 21,147.16 10:01PM ET 760.03 (3.73%)
Components, Chart, More ^BSESN
BSE 30 14,141.52 Aug 17 0.00 (0.00%)
Chart, More ^JKSE
Jakarta Composite 2,003.33 11:00PM ET 94.70 (4.96%)
Components, Chart, More ^KLSE
KLSE Composite 1,191.55 Aug 17 16.06 (1.33%)
Components, Chart, More ^N225
Nikkei 225 15,836.57 10:30PM ET 562.89 (3.69%)
Chart, More ^NZ50
NZSE 50 3,980.44 10:40PM ET 86.10 (2.21%)
Components, Chart, More ^STI
Straits Times 3,271.86 10:59PM ET 141.15 (4.51%)
Components, Chart, More ^KS11
Seoul Composite 1,714.70 11:01PM ET 76.63 (4.68%)
Components, Chart, More ^TWII
Taiwan Weighted 8,478.27 11:01PM ET 387.98 (4.80%)

damage management phases

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:35 am

first of all, it is not a real scientific method on assessing the damage, especially the financial market damages … but, i think it is a way to understand the problem and to discover a belief that damage can be controlled and reduced significantly … in my experiences, damage management is always very important in my life … damage begins when normal things are having difficulties … bad things happen to good people, for example … then, while people tend to understand firstly the problem, the problem is continuing deterioratingly harder than ever … when people discover the alternative ways of solving the problem, the problem becomes harder to solve … the emotionally people confronting the worse problem may bring more problematic ways to their problem solving implementation … the rationally people tend to think first rather than emotionally involved with the fall out … the future is giving choices and opportunities for the rational people … the emotionally people is more proned to the confusion … chaos is not undertandable thing for most of us … the rational people will become euphoria when they implement one or several solving tools to the problem, especially to the financial market problems … the rational people will eventually feel more comfortable when they see the underlying problem solved slowly and surely … no indecisive move for the rational people … they implement the tools rationally, measuredly, and comfortably … the future is here, when they work hard to act on the damage control … so, i organize the damage management phases as follows: damage assessment … damage problem realizing … damage problem understanding … damage problem solver searching … damage problem solving … damage recovery … damage reducing stabilisation … damage controlling and so on … well, the damage problem is an everyday fact … i think we need to amortize the damaging thing in our life …

it is a decisive move…

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:28 am

that the fed did several days ago … however, bearing in mind the normal curve, it is probable that the market fall out and the credit crunch will still be a headache for the investors … but i think that the markets rebound from the bottom, and slowly crawl back to the recovery phase

Global credit fears remain
Sun Aug 19, 2007 10:17PM EDT
By Kevin Plumberg

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Global investors will likely remain wary this week as uncertainty about the credit crisis persists, even after the U.S. Federal Reserve in a rare move on Friday slashed the rate it charges banks on loans and encouraged more borrowing.

Even if financial markets show signs of stability after the Fed’s rate cut boosted stocks world wide, central banks seem worried about the impact on growth from a crisis that began in the U.S. market for risky mortgages and spread like a virus.

“It’s too early to say that we have seen the worst of it,” said Naomi Fink, currency strategist with BNP Paribas in New York. “The Fed’s action signalled that there was concern that markets would not resolve the jitters themselves.”

The move from the Fed and rises in U.S. markets on Friday lifted Asian stock markets when they opened on Monday.

Japan’s broadest stock index, the TOPIX index, was over 3 percent higher in early trading, Australian’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index rose nearly 3 percent and Seoul’s benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) was nearly 5 percent higher.

But in New York, traders and investors remained nervous about the outlook earlier on Sunday.

Not even 24 hours after the Fed tried to shore up confidence in the credit market of the world’s largest economy, Sentinel Management Group Inc filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late on Friday.

The cash management firm serving the U.S. futures industry decided on Tuesday to freeze client accounts, a move that roiled the markets.

“I don’t think we’ve solved all the credit market problems with this move from the Fed,” said Michael James, senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

The Dow Jones industrial average snapped a 6-day losing streak on Friday, rising 233.30 points, or 1.8 percent, to 13,079.08.

Fred Dickson, market strategist and director of retail research at D.A. Davidson & Co., expected market volatility to ease with a quiet week ahead for economic and corporate news.

“I’d say the market should begin to settle down and feel a little bit easier that the Fed at least has shown they’re willing to react to market conditions,” said Dickson.

However, “the Fed action is basically a short-term Band-aid,” he noted. “The real question is what will happen next, because there will be more credit-related problems in the coming weeks.”

Dickson said Hurricane Dean, which hit Jamaica’s southern coast on Sunday, would also raise concerns, potentially driving up energy prices and putting pressure on the stock market.

THE MORTGAGE WORLD’S “KATRINA”

For the first time since the September 11, 2001 attacks crippled the U.S. financial system, the Fed on Friday cut its discount rate between regular policy meetings by half a percentage point, although it left its benchmark lending rate untouched at 5.25 percent.

And just 10 days after the Fed had said that economic growth was likely to continue at a moderate pace, it acknowledged market conditions had deteriorated so much that they threatened the economy.

During those 10 days, market volatility — as measured by the VIX index — had shot up 43 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 4.4 percent and the yen jumped 4 percent against the dollar.

Also, the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and others had spent the last two weeks pumping billions of dollars of short-term loans into markets in an effort to jump start liquidity, which had dried up as banks focused more on their own subprime exposure.

Still, central bankers seem to be profoundly reassessing their policy plans in light of the unfolding credit crisis.

“The fact that unprecedented liquidity has led to an almost indiscriminate investment in all things high yield is the concern of all central banks,” said BNP’s Fink.

One of the most dominant trading strategies in current markets is the carry trade, in which investors borrow cheaply in one country to buy higher-yielding assets in another.

But the spike in volatility and pullback in risk taking has bloodied the popular strategy.

The carry trade issue will continue to have an impact on the markets in the next few weeks, said Dickson. “We will continue to see hedge funds scramble to unwind carry trade positions and also to meet redemptions,” he said. “And that hangs over the market.”

Managed futures funds group John W. Henry said in a statement posted on its Web site that currency trading in July was unprofitable with the firm’s largest loss in the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen had surged to 14-month highs against the dollar. In Tokyo on Monday it edged up against the dollar. For more details.

The credit crisis has even spilled over into Main Street. Democratic contenders for U.S. President on Sunday were asked what could be done to foment the growing storm.

Some said increased transparency of hedge funds and private equity firms would help and all said vaguely that more liquidity is needed.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson called the crisis the “the Katrina of the mortgage-lending industry,” referring to the hurricane that levelled New Orleans and caused widespread criticism of the Bush administration for acting too late.

(Additional reporting by Megan Davies in New York)

© Reuters 2006. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.

Reuters journalists are subject to the Reuters Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

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