eK0n0mi taK seriU$ d/h ekonomitakserius@blogspot.com

Juli 31, 2007

money talks …

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:10 am

several big lower shopping places in several big cities of indonesia were on fire … small vendor owners are on heartbroken condition … their future is on big question marks … but, money talks, when they pay the future property developers for an unit in the new shopping arcades, they have new outlets with better condition … in fact, money talks very loudly in indonesia today because of economic growth without real law enforcement … trillions of rupiah move away from the small vendor owners to greedy property developers backed by the aji mumpung officials (who seeks only for a bag of money in their high level positition) … life is difficult for the laypeople who understand less of the econopolitical situation around their home …. money talks since they themselves received pleasantly the material as part of money politics during the election period … now the period of payback n profit taking for the elected officials taking place … it’s not hard to understand the situation because of soft-country condition … soft when money speaks … forever soft when money always speaks … the heaven is here, should everyone pay their share … it is inevitable reality, not just a reality show

Juli 28, 2007

Gross v.banteng

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 12:34 am

seperti yang gw uda kemukakan beberapa hari lalu, Gross sudah memperingatkan soal pasar utang amrik yang bakal sebagian ambruk gara2 kredit macet di sektor subprime housing loan … kejadian d, lebih dari US$1,3T menguap di pasar saham global … itu sama dengan obligasi China di amrik … taon ini sudah yang kesekian kalinya (lebih dari 2 kali kayanya) gempuran pada pasar saham global terjadi … apakah pasar saham global akan memasuki era bearish? … menurut Gross: NGGA LAH …. asal aza jangan panek gitu lho …. gitu aza kok repot …
CNBC Exclusive: Gross Sees More ‘Tough Sledding’ for Housing Topics:Economy (U.S.) Economy (Global) Municipal Bonds Corporate Bonds Market Outlook Stock Market HousingBy CNBC.com 27 Jul 2007 08:57 AM ET Font size:
The subprime lending situation will get worse over the next 18 months, but there’s no reason for investors in the stock market to panic, Pimco founder Bill Gross told CNBC Friday.
“Not only are we seeing delinquencies and defaults, but we’re seeing upward adjustments in terms of those interest rates and that will occur for the next six, 12, 18 months,” Gross told “Squawk Box.”
“The housing market has some more tough sledding to go in the next year and a half,” he said.
But that shouldn’t force investors to dump stocks, which he said are fairly valued at the moment.
“Corporate earnings are going well, the economy is doing decently, not great, we’re not headed to a recession, there’s nothing wrong with stocks going forward,” Gross said.

No Fed to the Rescue
Gross also dismissed speculation that Thursday’s sharp drop in the market would push the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to cut interest rates.
“I don’t think (a 300-point decline) on the Dow is going to force Bernanke to cut, or even 300 more points should it happen today,” he said. “Bernanke really wants to see somewhat of a decline in risk attitudes.”
“That doesn’t mean he wants a crash, it doesn’t mean he really wants the market to go down,” Gross added. “He wants a controlled, tempered type of market and we’re beginning to see that.”

Juli 27, 2007

beruang ngamuk

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 10:33 am

…. amukan bearish di wall street bergema keras abis ke semua bursa saham, kecuali kuala lumpur n shenzhen exchange …. seperti Gross ngoceh, maka gw juga ngikutin doi punya pandangan yang pastinya ok punya … ya, wysiwyd d …. gw malah masuk saat ihsg anjlok 66 poin hari ini ke 1298-an, lumayan lah, malah sempat turun sekitar 80 poin, lalu di akhir sesi 2 malah terus2an bucking the global trend, mulai ada arus balik … mungkin ihsg cuma ikut2an doang … kalo di ausie, nikkei, bombay, hang seng, taiwan, korsel, sti emang terkait erat banget ke ekonomi amrik, indo mah dimusuhin di mana2 jadi ga terlalu besar perannya dalam import di amrik … tapi biar bagaimana pun pengaruh langsung n tidak langsungnya juga tetap ada … ya, begitu lah, masuk dikit2 aja, sambil liat tren lagi … tokh, gdp uncle sam yang due hari ini bisa aja positif banget, sehingga senin depan mungkin mulai pulih lagi d … yen carry trade juga berbalik arah gara2 kerusuhan pasar kredit perumahan amrik, sehingga yen naek sementara new zealand dollar malah ambruk, mirip rupiah … indo juga dilanda suasana bearish gara2 musibah gak berhenti-hentinya, pasar terbesar di surabaya, turi, abis dilalap si jago merah, banjir di sulteng juga lom reda, puluhan ribu orang mengungsi, sementara sby n howard tukar toast di denpasar (jadi ingat denpasar moonnya maribeth d), 9 orang mati secara misterius di magelang sementara beberapa orang lagi dirawat di rs tanpa kejelasan sebab musababnya (god only knows)…. jadi, lengkap lah hari-hari ini sebagai harinya para beruang di indonesia … jangan lama2 ya … hehehehheheh

Juli 25, 2007

apakah Gross bener

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 2:46 am

… saat manajer investasi obligasi terbesar amrik ini bilang bahwa pasar kredit amrik sedang rusuh … lalu kerusuhan itu merembet ke bursa saham, bahkan bisa anjlok sampai 5-10% … wah kesempatan beli nih, tungguin aja turunnya d …

Juli 22, 2007

what you said is what you did

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 5:15 pm

wysiwyd … similarly short to wysiwyg … as an investor follow his own thought better than do nothing … below is the story: (eh, it is very close story to my own … i think….)
Financial adviser’s advice on investing: Don’t wait
INERTIA is an investor’s worst enemy. It means time wasted and money forgone. Lorna Tan
Sun, Jul 22, 2007The Straits Times INERTIA is an investor’s worst enemy. It means time wasted and money forgone.
Straightforward advice and hard to argue with, especially as it comes from Mr Joseph Chong, 45, the founder and chief executive of financial advisory firm New Independent.
‘Every year that you delay saving and investing, it becomes worse and worse,’ he says.
He practises what he preaches and ensures that everything he earns is invested, except for three to six months of emergency cash.
He also advises that people should start learning about investing as soon as they start saving. ‘If you don’t do that, the tuition fee becomes a lot heavier. The mistakes made earlier are cheaper.’
As a child, he showed signs of entrepreneurship when he bred fighting fish and sold them for a profit.
Growing up in a family where money was tight, Mr Chong recalls how he was always scrounging around for scholarships. The St Joseph’s Institution student was on one scholarship after another from Secondary 2 until he finished his master’s degree in Germany.
A former Public Service Commission scholarship holder, he worked at the Ministry of Defence for eight years before joining the banking industry.
New Independent was set up in December 2001 with $400,000. It broke even after two years and is enjoying annual revenue growth of 30 per cent. It takes care of wealth management for high net-worth individuals.
He is married with an eight-year-old daughter. His wife, 42, was an investment banker who retired two years ago.
Q What is your approach to money management?
A Sweat at work but sweat one’s assets harder. This is the approach I have adopted since I started work 18 years ago with $2,000 in my bank account. It was already mathematically clear then that just working and saving wouldn’t do it. To be free from the ‘bondage’ of employment, you must invest and compound your money.
Q What financial planning have you done for yourself and your family?
A We have a comprehensive financial plan drafted in accordance with New Independent’s proprietary financial planning system – The NI Concept Plan (a framework which the firm recommends to clients).
Q What about insurance planning?
A This is an integral part of the plan. Generally, except for critical illness cover, all our policies are effectively term insurance plans.
Q When and how did you get interested in investing?
A I can’t quite remember when but I have always been interested in economics, history and mathematics.
Q What’s your investment philosophy?
A I have always believed in the need to diversify globally and across asset classes.
As a survivor of the Asian crisis and the dot.com bust, I am now an even more unrepentant believer. Like a predator on the stalk, an investor has to be patient.
I am quite happy to grind out 10 to 12 per cent annually on my globally diversified portfolio while watching for an opportunity to exploit extraordinary value opportunities. My overall portfolio generates about 25 per cent returns annually.
Q What has been a bad investment?
A It was a silly foray into club memberships in Batam. I wrote off the entire initial $12,000.
Q Your best investment to date?
A My best portfolio call was a play on falling interest rates in Singapore as the Asian crisis abated in 1998. A $35,000 basket of property securities tripled to $110,000 in eight weeks. That’s a rate of return not to be repeated in a lifetime.
Q Any other investments?
A I have a 2,300 sq ft investment property on Nathan Road that was acquired in 1998 for $1.61 million.
Q Why did you decide to become your own boss?
A Being my own boss was never a goal that I strove for. It is often a necessary evil in pursuing an idea or a passion.
Over and above risking my own capital, my partner and I cut our pay by 90 per cent initially to conserve cash.
It was especially tempting for us not to start. The terrorist attacks of Sept 11, 2001 had just happened. We had other more secure career opportunities dangling before us and we had young families to take care of.
But we saw what happened in Britain when Mrs Margaret Thatcher created the independent financial advisers industry in the late 1980s and we were convinced we could succeed.
Q Money-wise, what were your growing-up years like?
A I grew up with three sisters. My father was a civil servant and my mother a housewife. The tight money meant there was no budget for holidays.
Q Any retirement plans?
A I am very fortunate that financially I now have the option of retirement. But it is highly unlikely that I will be exercising it any time soon.
I hope to continue for another 25 years until I am 70 if my health permits, because I enjoy the challenge of what I am doing.
Q And your home is.. ?
A Home is a 1,324 sq ft condominium along River Valley Road bought for $1.08 million in 1998.
Q And your car is ..?
A A Toyota Altis.
lorna@sph.com.sg
Not enough to just save
“Sweat at work but sweat one’s assets harder. To be free from the ‘bondage’ of employment, you must invest and compound your money.” MR JOSEPH CHONG, CEO of New Independent

i’m delighted …

Filed under: Uncategorized — bumi2009fans @ 3:41 am

because more people link their blog to this blog … i think this is good news … perhaps i should change the blog name to english term, such as, notseriouslyeconomy … it might seem that the name is notoriouslyeconomy … (laughed) … ok, let me write more on global economy forecast based on the current situation … the current situation especially in the usa n china is like earth and heaven … china is the heaven, because of the significant economic growth (Q2 gdp @11.9%)… while in the earth side, q2 us gdp under 1% … however, the extend of us economy are larger than all of other countries … so, the fact is us economic problem might bring some impacts to other countries condition because of the significant portfolio investment by the us investment institution abroad … the biggest problem of the usa economy is subprime bad loan in the real estate sectors … real estate sectors are the major sectors of consumerized economic growth of uncle sam .. us economy gdp based mainly by the consumer sector growth… so what everyone fear of is the spread of bad loan problems to other sectors of consumer products … now, we have seen the financial sectors feel the pain already … ben benarnke already mentioning the size of bad loan is US$ 50-100 B … 2 major hedge fund companies suffer biggest losses of their performance, while the holding company trying to bail out the subsidiaries … at the same time, fed does not want to repeat what greenspan did several decades ago with the ltcm bail-out … citibank has already suffers the pinch as well … in my mind, i hope the situation might be getting better in h2 because of more consumer confidence and general motor revivals .. good hope sometime is the wishful thinking only … worse scenario is the spread not only thinly flows to other sector of consumers … perhaps, major retails will only be impacted as the latest … while the durable goods sector will be one major sector to watch afterwards … the durable goods based on the commodities supply and demand … when the demand for durable goods follow suit the slowdown of real estate demand, then the commodities supply will be ample to absorb … the fall of commodities demand brings down the commodities price … it might not happen directly, because of the rise of global demand of metals and energy … but indirectly, the fall of financial capability, to support the consumer products loan for bailing out the subprime sectors, will drag the durable goods market growth which most exporting countries depend on .. the slowdown of durable goods import to uncle sam not likely to happen soon …. however, having said that, i’m wondering how the fed might consider the rise of the inflation rate, especially the core inflation, balancing the slowdown of the economy … will the fed consider the inflation target as the major function of the fed only? … how big the capital expenditures are available for the manufacturing company to prepare for the worst? … these two major things of financing the economy will tell the future of uncle sam deep pockets …on the other hand, the currency is getting better by allowing itself to deppreciate significantly to other major currencies, giving the better market of uncle sam products, especially the high tech products, such as, information tech, heavy machinery, weaponry … however, having said that, these industries might not bring so much of employment … the consumer side of us gdp might still suffer a lot … so, the short term to mid-term future of the usa economy is still under water … will be the collapsing of such a big economy happening soon? recession? … up till now still is a big question mark … it depends mostly on how us consumers think about their spending … so, for everyone in the world, the worry is consumer spending for a short time must be increased up to a new good equilibrium for the big positive us gdp growth… is it possible? hope so … the risks for other major countries exporting to usa still big, because of the strengthen of their currencies … that’s why, even thailand as a small exporting country feels the same problem … indonesia experiencing of the decreasing export demand currently … however, the indonesia problem is not so big … indonesia has more to supply because of the government incapability to watch every exporters movement in the market … the drain of natural resources defeats the government law enforcement because of the fragile governance .. so the mid-term condition is pleasantly predicted, while in the long term most indonesian will suffer the impacts of today bad governance … it is not so easy to forecast indonesia short term crises comparing to 1997-1998 financial crises … so h2 indonesia economy might not be harmful … but 2008 is the political year, and the economy strength testing to come … i will wait n see

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